CDC excess death data shows since June 20 more than twice as many Coloradans have died from @GovofCO@CDPHE and local restrictions than have died from Covid.
310 with Covid, 787 from response.
Literally suicide.
Details follow.
1/9
The CDC tracks the total number of deaths for the country and each state. Any deaths over the expected number of deaths are “excess” deaths.
Note: CDC data takes a while to collect and publish so data is through Aug 22.
And yes, I am counting all of the non-Covid excess deaths as being caused by the reaction to Covid.
That is, if it weren’t for Covid and the insane reaction to Covid, Colorado would be experiencing an average number of deaths.
7/9
Also, some countries only count pneumonia deaths. The thinking is if one dies of Covid & a comorbidity is something it doesn’t typically cause (like dementia or circulatory disease), patient was likely seriously ill already. In contrast, Covid can cause pneumonia on its own.
8/9
CDC shows pneumonia as a comorbidity in about 43% of Covid deaths. If these are the only true Covid deaths & others are people who primarily die from other causes exacerbated by Covid, then:
Reaction deaths outnumber Covid deaths 3:1 (see graph)
We are killing ourselves.
9/9
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Here are more thoughts regarding the possibility of a Covid floor in Colorado. First, as a reminder, both positivity and hospitalizations seem to have found a steady-state floor and have been at the same levels for weeks.
STEADY-STATE LEVELS ARE NOT NATURAL!
1/8
Here's a chart showing last 10 years of visits for Influenza-like illnesses (ILI) in US. What's missing? Aside from perhaps mid-July to mid-Aug summer nadir, there are no steady-state periods where ILI visits remain unchanged for weeks. Such balance doesn’t occur naturally.
2/8
And it makes sense, either the flu is spreading or contracting. To strike a perfect balance where there are a steady-state significant number of cases week over week would be very difficult. Even Colorado’s modeling group agrees.
3/8
Colorado's COVID-19 Modeling Group estimates that if we stopped social distancing and stopped wearing masks, 13,370,000 Coloradans would become infected with Covid-19.
Which is weird, as Colorado only has 5,841,000 residents.
Read on.
1/10
1st the model. The COVID-19 Modeling Group (CMG) made an app of their model. @GovofCO Polis said it's the same data used in CMG reports to him. Here is a screenshot of the model with social distancing & mask wearing set to 0.
It results in 5,513,600 Symptomatic Infections
2/10
It's now possible to determine the effect of the severe lockdowns in Colorado from March thru May:
Lockdown lowered CO’s peak covid hospitalizations from about 1,120 to the 888 CO saw on April 14.
It delayed about 40 deaths by 3 months.
That’s it. That's all.
Thread explains.
Covid is inevitable. We can’t stop it. We can only delay some effects if we react harshly and early. This was the whole premise of “Flatten the Curve”. FTC never implied infection/hospitalization/death avoidance, just delay.
Here’s how the effects of Colorado's lockdown can be determined.
This chart is the covid hospitalizations curve for Colorado from 3/22 to 6/11. It displays the classic Gompertz curve associated with a virus moving through a population.