I want to take this article on 'new weapons that are changing the war in #NagornoKarabakh' to talk a bit about #drones in this conflict. (1/8)
tagesschau.de/ausland/bergka…
As someone who's been looking into #drones, two things I found interesting:
First, the conflict showed again the important propaganda value of drones. As drones carry sophisticated surveillance tech, they document every strike they make (if armed), or operation flown. (2/8)
So using drones is like having a film crew with you, and Azerbaijan in particular has taken advantage of this, publishing clips of their drone operations. (3/8)
Second, and more importantly: there used to be a conviction among drone researchers, that today's drones wouldn't play a big role in interstate conflicts, because they are rather vulnerable and not very powerful. (4/8)
The general understanding (generalising a bit here) was that today's #drones were only really useful in areas where the drone user had aerial superiority, so for example when fighting non-state actors. (5/8)
But now we see two states use drones against each other, and with quite some impact. I think the analysis of many drone researchers, including myself, was too focused on larger military powers. (6/8)
Because for smaller states, which do have air forces, but only have a limited number of aircraft - as is the case for both Armenia and Azerbaijan - drones are quite an important contribution because they boost aerial capabilities. (7/8)
I think that's what we are seeing at the moment. (end)
Addendum: Quite fascinating that we now seeing old *manned aircraft* being repurposed as disposable #drones (as #Azerbaijan is doing with old Antonov An-2).

(And yes I know there is a long history of that from the beginning of drone development)

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More from @RikeFranke

Nov 22
Holy sh**!
(Is my expert opinion)
#AI #drone
Why? Quite the combination between small, armed, and #AI-enabled.
Source: Elbit promotional video 👇

Read 4 tweets
Nov 21
Excellent take.
“US spending of 5.6% of its defense budget to destroy nearly half of Russia’s conventional military capability seems like an absolutely incredible investment.” cepa.org/article/its-co…
(And no, this does not discard/ignore Ukrainian deaths. The US (west, Ukraine) did not start this war)
“the war has [also] served to destroy the myth that Russian military technology is somehow comparable to that of the US and West.… Wars are shop windows for defense manufacturers; any buyer in their right mind will want the technology made by the winner.“
cepa.org/article/its-co…
Read 5 tweets
Nov 16
Fair (though for once I wasn’t primarily thinking about se tschermans). But this shows the reality of mutual defence clauses. They are - need to be! - at the same time flexible and rigid. You walk a thin line between “the others will definitely come!” and “but there is leeway”.
This btw explains why we talk so much about NATO article 5, and so little about the EU’s article 42.7. When you look at the wording, they seem very similar, and similarly strong 👇. But…
Read 5 tweets
Nov 16
I am torn between just repeating over and over again “this is not an article 5 case!”* - and explaining that article 5 does not work like people seem to think it does.

*as far as we can tell right now.
But since it never hurts to know more:
1) If article 5 is invoked, the allies don’t *have* to do much of anything, really. Allies decide for themselves. NATO as an explainer on its website where it notes the article’s history 👇 Image
2) Assistance under article 5 is not necessarily military. Again, the allies decide for themselves. The article’s text is already very clear about this: “actions as is deems necessary, *including* the use of armed force”. Image
Read 7 tweets
Nov 13
It’s quite rare that I listen to a discussion on Franco-German politics and so fundamentally disagree not just with the arguments but also with the analysis… 😳 podcasts.apple.com/gb/podcast/new…
Germany and France want a *multipolar world*, @Dr_Pflueger ?!
Last time I checked, a western-led order was massively in Europe’s interest.
Also very surprised by @lauremandeville saying that the French want(ed) the EU to become post-national. And being more emotionally involved in the Franco-German relationship than the Germans.
This goes against everything I’ve read, learned, and experienced in my studies.
Read 4 tweets
Oct 11
Wooow. This morning @JosepBorrellF held a speech addressing the EU ambassadors. And it’s quite something. 😳

eeas.europa.eu/eeas/eu-ambass…
It’s very self-critical
It’s very clear-eyed
Read 5 tweets

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