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Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
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6 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
There is some confusion about the conceptual difference between layoffs (from #JOLTS) and initial UI claims. There are a few main differences in normal times: One, layoffs are for a specific month, but UI claims can be from earlier if there was a delay in applying. 1/
Also, many people who don’t get laid off but see a big drop in hours and income apply for UI. (But on the other hand, not everyone who gets laid off applies for UI.) 2/
Because of the CARES Act, there are other huge differences: People can apply for UI who didn’t get laid off and wouldn’t be eligible for regular UI—namely independent contractors and those who had to quit to, e.g., take care of a child whose day care closed because of COVID. 3/
The upshot is that we would expect layoffs (from #JOLTS) to be much lower than UI claims right now, which they are. 4/

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More from @hshierholz

Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
8 Oct
Another 1.3 million people applied for unemployment insurance (UI) last week. That includes 840,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 464,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The 1.3 million who applied for UI last week was a decline of 53,000 from the prior week’s revised figures. 2/
Last week was the 29th straight week total initial claims were far greater than the worst week of the Great Recession (GR). If you restrict to regular state claims (b/c we didn’t have PUA in the GR), initial claims are still greater than the 3rd-worst week of the GR. 3/
Read 20 tweets
Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
6 Oct
Today's #JOLTS data show that by the end of August—a month after Republicans in the Senate let the extra $600 in weekly UI benefits expire—there were 6.6 million more unemployed workers than job openings. The cruelty is mindblowing. People can’t get jobs that don’t exist. 1/
#JOLTS data also show hiring has slowed dramatically since May and June and is now roughly where it was before the recession hit. This is a disaster given that we need to make up over 12 jobs. 2/ epi.org/press/slowdown…
Without Congressional action, we are facing a slow, painful recovery, if not another recession. 3/ epi.org/blog/the-first…
Read 8 tweets
Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
2 Oct
September was the 7th month of the COVID crisis in the U.S. labor market, and the situation is dire. We added 661,000 jobs in Sept, but the labor market remains in crisis—we lost so many jobs in March and Apr that we are still 10.7 million jobs below where we were in Feb. 1/
And, nearly a quarter of a million jobs right now—247,000—are temporary jobs related to the decennial census that will disappear in the next few months. Not counting temporary census jobs, our jobs deficit is now 11.0 million jobs. 2/ census.gov/content/dam/Ce…
Further, in the year before the recession, we added 194,000 jobs per month on average, so from Feb-Sep, we should have added around 1.4 million jobs. That means the total gap in the labor market right now is on the order of 12.3 million jobs. 3/
Read 33 tweets
Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
1 Oct
Another 1.5 million people applied for unemployment insurance (UI) last week. That includes 837,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 650,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
A reminder: Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) is the federal program for workers who are not eligible for regular unemployment insurance, like gig workers. It provides up to 39 weeks of benefits but is set to expire at the end of this year. 2/
The 1.5 million who applied for UI last week was unchanged from the prior week. Note: CA has shut down all new UI claims while they prepare an updated identity verification system to combat fraud, but DOL adjusted for that in their published numbers. 3/
losangeles.cbslocal.com/2020/09/19/edd…
Read 26 tweets
Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
25 Sep
This quick blog post helps cut through the confusion with labor labor market data right now. 1/ epi.org/blog/at-least-…
TL;DR: Right now, 21.5 million workers are either officially unemployed or otherwise out of work because of the virus, and another 11.5 million are employed but have seen a drop in hours and pay, for a total of 33 million workers directly hurt by the COVID recession. 2/
And that doesn’t count those who lost a job or hours earlier in the pandemic but are back to work now. The cumulative count of those harmed would be much greater. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Heidi Shierholz Profile picture
24 Sep
Another 1.5 million people applied for unemployment insurance (UI) last week. That includes 870,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 630,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
A reminder: Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) is the federal program for workers who are not eligible for regular unemployment insurance, like gig workers. It provides up to 39 weeks of benefits but is set to expire at the end of this year. 2/
Last week was the 27th straight week total initial claims were far greater than the worst week of the Great Recession (GR). If you restrict to regular state claims (b/c we didn’t have PUA in the GR), initial claims are still greater than the 3rd-worst week of the GR. 3/
Read 29 tweets

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