Thread by @plaforscience

I've been repeatedly asked for the concerning Spanish 2nd wave, my answer was, still, human artifact unrelated with epidemic development.

Now we can prove it.

We observed the political and economical relation in the increase, but can't find it in the illness' outcomes.

Thread:

First, some politics.

You probably know that Spain has the worse per million data in Europe both thru spring peak and now.

Opposition has decided to use that to attack Central gov, in response Central gov is blaming Madrid regional gov (mirror roles), worst results region.

Now economics

Huge bonus is released from Central gov to Regions linked to:
Test done>€100/each
Hospitalisation>€15K/e
ICU admissions>€500/e

Of course, more test leads to more cases, and the fashion parameter: ACCUMULATED INCIDENCE
Suspiciously short hosp times also showing

This lead to the increasing weird numbers and trends, impossible to relate to deaths, which are in themselves out of any consistence.

That's why we called the human artifact back then.

Lately, the Central/Madrid region gov conflict has harshen, as numbers grow.

Central gov plotted to appear as the actor controlling the epidemic as the regional gov wasn't.

Central gov made a law with certain ARBITRARY limits for ICU (35%), positivity(10%) and accumulated incidence (500) that simultaneously were only failed by Madrid region.

After that, Madrid region was override by Central Authority and forced to apply a DIFFERENT set of restrictions. Funny, it's not even harder ones, politics' like that, you know.

Madrid gov has the issue under judge, to prove even more the whole partisan character of the matter.

Known all this, we advanced, public and privately, the certainty that Madrid was having a miraculous decrease as soon as instead of bonus you were getting punishment: because, remember, the whole second wave was a human artifact, and, therefore, subject to manipulation.

And here we are.

In less than 2 weeks:
Accumulated I has drop from ~810 to ~580
ICU use has drop 11%

Hospitalisations down a 55%

In 2 weeks, beginning exactly when tension between govs bloomed: MIRACLE.
We expect parameters will drop under the new legal limit.

Human artifact.

Sorry for the long political background, but it was definitely needed.

There's NO WAY epidemic could be SO luckily functional by chance.

That's the definite prove, predictable&predicted with good analysis, as science does; that THERE'S NO 2nd wave in Spain, but a fake casedemic