Thread by @SRuhle

THREAD: Money matters to voters, so what did we learn in last night's #VPDebate ?

Here’s a summary of what we heard, specifically the hits and misses on our very complicated economy ⬇️

Pence repeated the previously fact-checked claim that Trump turned the U.S. economy around.

FALSE: GDP was 2% & 2.3% under Obama, 2.5% under Trump. It was an economic expansion Trump made possible by the 2017 Corporate Tax Cut.

Pence says Biden will raises taxes on all Americans.

FALSE: Biden plans to partially repeal the corporate tax cut. Trump dropped the corporate tax rate from 35% - 21%.

Cont'd: Biden plans to meet in the middle at 28% (a number that both JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon & former Trump economic advisor Gary Cohn agree is reasonable).

Biden will NOT raise taxes for anyone making less than $400k.

Pence challenged Harris saying that rolling back those cuts would mean a family of 4 would lose the $2k they got from the tax cut.

As part of the 2017 cut, CHILD TAX CREDIT was increased from $1k-2k. Biden has NOT said he'd do away with that, BUT Harris did not make that point.

Pence avoided answering much on Trump taxes and spoke in generalities about POTUS being a great business man & job creator.

Harris refuted this, but missed the opportunity to press Pence on who specifically Donald Trump owes over $400 million to in the next 4 years.

When Pence argued Trump has done more in 47 months than Biden in 47 years, Harris missed the chance to explain how Trump broke his promise to close loopholes for the rich or how he expanded some (business machinery deduction) and created more (for real estate industry).

Though Pence’s claims about Biden raising “everyone’s taxes” are not true, he did NOT repeat Trump’s pledge that a middle class tax cut is on the way.

Trump pushed this idea 2 days before the midterms and has introduced it again, but there have been no actual proposals laid out.

Pence argued that Trump brought manufacturing back & took China on, while Biden was a “China cheerleader.”

FALSE: Trump’s trade war was rooted in a plan to reduce our trade deficit. It ballooned under Trump (Aug 2016 $40.7B vs Aug 2020 $67.1B)

Cont'd: -The trade war hit American farmers especially hard, leading to US Gov't distributing $30B in farm aid (even with the aid – we’ve seen record #s of family farm bankruptcies).

Cont'd: Manufacturing has shrunk under the Trump administration.

Re: Biden / “China cheerleader”: Biden signed/supported the TPP, a multilateral agreement aimed specifically at China’s unfair trade practices.

Trump abandoned this almost immediately after taking office.

Pence discussed trade improvements with Canada & Mexico under USMCA.

It is a better/stronger agreement than NAFTA (one that Democrats got almost all of their demands agreed to), but it is not a departure from NAFTA. It’s a new + improved version.

MOST NOTABLY: Pence predicted 2021 would be the STRONGEST ECONOMIC YEAR EVER. There are NO economists of note making this prediction.

By contrast, YESTERDAY, Fed Chair Jay Powell urged congress to pass more stimulus & warned too little fiscal support would “lead to a weak recovery, creating unnecessary hardship for households and businesses.”

Pence pledged another term would keep up on the continued strong “V” shaped recovery.

There is not evidence to back the current or future V given our current status.

Cont'd: 11.4M jobs have returned since we hit the pandemic-shut-down-peak. However 12.6M Americans are on unemployment

Not included in that number are recent layoff announcements made by Disney, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, United & a number of oil & gas companies.

Today’s stalled stimulus talks put more jobs & businesses at risk:
- Airline industry at risk of losing 50k jobs
- Restaurant industry – over 5M workers & thousands of independent restaurants facing increased challenges without the restaurant bill (was in stimulus package).

Per Yelp in late August:
- Over 60k restaurants closed permanently
- Over 100k small business have shut, with more to come without another round of PPP

Without additional federal funding for states/cities- First responders & teachers likely facing job & pay cuts

During COVID & Healthcare questions, Senator Harris did NOT note the financial burden those recovering from COVID face.

Per the NY Times, the median charge of COVID hospital care for patients over 60yrs old: $61,912

Cont'd: By comparison, President Trump received COVID treatment at Walter Reed, a 100% government funded medical facility.

Climate Change: Harris addressed climate as an economic issue & opportunity citing a Moody’s report which concluded a Biden Administration would be better for jobs & economic stability & growth (specifically in infrastructure & renewable energy).