A great conversation with @NPRKelly just now helped me crystallize some thoughts on Russia and the West. In the spirit of twitter, written without nuance. Comments welcome. THREAD 1/
Conventional wisdom: Russia is a weak and declining power. In fact, Russia is much powerful today than 20 years ago. Russia has significant conventional military, nuclear, cyber, intelligence, economic & ideational power, second in the aggregate only to the US & China. 2/
Conventional wisdom: Putin plays his weak cards craftily. In fact, Putin's belligerent foreign policies -- interventions in Ukraine, Syria, U.S.; assassinations attempt in UK in 2018; support for dictators in former USSR -- have weakened Russia. 3/
Conventional wisdom: Putin is a transactional leader. In fact, Putin is a very ideological leader. His worldview is shaped by illiberalism-- orthodoxy, nationalism, anti-multilateralism. In RT, Sputnik, NGOS, etc, he has made giant financial investments to propagate Putinism. 4/
If Putin is so transactional, why hasn't he completed one major transaction with Trump, who also fancies himself as a transactional leader. (Art of the Deal, businessman, etc)? 5/
Conventional wisdom: Putin's strong hand made the Russian economy grow. In fact, the growing economy, which started growing in 1999 before Putin became president in 2000, has supported autocratic consolidation. Putin's autocracy has slowed growth. 6/
Russians are richer today than maybe anytime in their history. But they would have been so much richer had the regime deepened liberal, rule of law, democratic institutions in 2000, rather than destroy them. 7/
Conventional wisdom: U.S. needs to peel Russia away from China just like Nixon peeled China away from the USSR in the 1970s. In reality, Putin would never abandon his closest partner to take a chance on erratic US. (Sino-Soviet split happened long before US-China rapprochement) 8
What did I get wrong? Thanks again @NPRKelly @UVA @StatecraftLab @Miller_Center @UVADemocracy ! END THREAD 9/

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More from @McFaul

2 Oct
I don't think the craziness of DNI Ratcliffe's letter is being properly appreciated. This action is outrageous and dangerous on so many levels. THREAD 1/. judiciary.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…
First, the DNI released information/disinformation about an American from a foreign enemy! Why would the USG ever release information about assessments of Americans obtained from any foreign government, let alone from a hostile country? That is nuts. 2/
Second, as I know bitterly well from first-hand experience, Russian intel agents are masters at disinformation. Putin wanted to Trump to win, and Clinton to lose. Of course, they would release such disinformation. You don't need a PhD in Russian studies to figure that out. 3/
Read 7 tweets
24 Sep
Trump's had 4 years in the job. Time for a foreign policy report card. THREAD 1/ washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/…
Climate change: F. Trump withdrew from the Paris climate accords and denies that this existential threat to the planet (and thus to all Americans) is even a problem. Trump’s refusal to even try to tackle climate change might be his greatest foreign policy failure. 2/
China: D+. Trump ... deserves credit for accurately diagnosing the challenge in the 2017 National Security Strategy. In 2020, however, his team then exaggerated this threat, claiming that the Chinese Communist Party seeks to export Marxism-Leninism & undermine global freedom. 3/
Read 18 tweets
18 Sep
You've already forgotten about Trump's reaction to Russians paying bounties to kill American soldiers. nytimes.com/2020/06/30/us/… 1/ THREAD
You've already forgotten that Trump reportedly called our soldiers "losers" and suckers." 2/ theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
You've already forgotten what was in that 1000 page Senate Intel Committee report. 3/ nbcnews.com/think/opinion/…
Read 16 tweets
18 Sep
As Putin and his proxies continue to interfere in our electoral process, Im surprised by how the seem to ignore a possible outcome in November -- a Biden victory. THREAD 1/
If Putin continues to escalate his disinformation activities over the next 2 months, and then Biden wins, do they think the new president will do nothing in response? That's not my assessment of my former WH colleague. 2/
If he wants to respond, Biden will have on his side the Intelligence Community, whose work has been ignored by Trump. They have collected tons of information on Putin and his cronies. One response would be declassification of some of these materials. 3/
Read 6 tweets
17 Sep
In case you forgot how American leaders used to speak:

"... there's not a liberal America and a conservative America — there's the United States of America." THREAD. 1/
"There's not a black America and white America and Latino America and Asian America; there's the United States of America." 2/
"The pundits like to slice-and-dice our country into Red States and Blue States; Red States for Republicans, Blue States for Democrats." 3/
Read 5 tweets
10 Sep
When I served as U.S. Ambassador to Russia, Putin's propagandists made the crazy claim that Obama sent me to Moscow to foment revolution. They cited this academic article from 2006 as "proof" that I was a professional "revolutionary." journalofdemocracy.org/articles/trans… THREAD 1/
Now, pro-Trump conspiracy theorists are making the same crazy claim about me, only this time my objective is a color revolution against the U.S. government! And now they too are citing the same @JoDemocracy article as evidence! Coincidence or coordination? 2/
Glad to be expanding readership of the Journal of Democracy -- one of the most important journals in my profession -- among Trump fans. But writing as an academic about democratic breakthroughs or color revolutions does not make one a professional revolutionary. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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