Thread by @ReformAustin

Texas suburbs are ground zero in the fight for the White House, control of Congress, and the fight for the leadership of the Texas State House. See the results of Reform Austin’s latest poll. #txlege #tx2020 1/
reformaustin.org/elections/ra-n…

RA News polled 22 battleground House districts, incl. 5 won by Dems in 2018 (#HD45, #HD65, #HD102, #HD132, #HD135) & 17 that House Ds identified as targets in 2020. The districts are mostly suburban & exurban in the Austin, Houston, DFW & Killeen–Temple metros. #txlege 2/

If the election were to be held today, President Trump would win in only 5 out of 22 districts polled by RA News. Former VP Joe Biden would take 7 districts. The remainder are a toss-up, with neither candidate having the support of at least 50% of those polled. #txlege 3/

When it comes to the president's job performance, the number of likely voters giving him an unfavorable approval rating far outweigh those who think he has done a good job. In #HD134, 67% of those polled gave Trump an unfavorable rating, the lowest grade among the 22 HDs. 4/

#HD134 is also where @GovAbbott finds the most voters unhappy w/his performance. He gets a favorable rating from just 32% of those polled. Overall, he has approval ratings >50% in less than half of the HDs, & his approval ratings lag his 2018 vote share by 4.5% across the HDs. 5/

In the State House races, only 1 out of the 22 districts shows the GOP candidate w/support from >50% of respondents. All D incumbents hold comfortable leads, w/D candidates in GOP-held districts polling at or above 50% in 5 districts & holding a lead in 6 more. #txlege 6/

(State House cont.) GOP incumbents and candidates lead in six districts, but have less than 50% support in five of the six districts. If these polling advantages materialize on Election Day, Democrats would gain 11 seats and win control of the Texas House. #txlege 7/

In a generic Congressional ballot across the 22 districts, Democrats led in 11 of the 17 Republican-held districts & all 5 of the Democrat-held districts (16 of 22 overall). In 5/6 districts where the generic Republican is in the lead, the GOP is below 50% support. #txlege 8/

When it comes to who they trust to make decisions regarding the #COVID19 pandemic, respondents were asked to identify whether they preferred statewide leaders like the Gov. to make decisions about the pandemic, or local leaders like their county judge or mayor. #txlege 9/

(#COVID19 trust cont.) In only five of the 22 districts, did respondents prefer statewide leaders to local leaders, with the vast majority of respondents across the sample indicating a preference for local leaders to lead response efforts. #txlege 10/

The GOP have held control of all 3 branches of state gov't — House, Senate & governor’s office — since 2002, when the House was the final branch to flip red. 12 State House seats moved from R to D 2 yrs ago. To take back the majority, Dems will need to net 9 seats in Nov. 11/

Poll Methodology: IVR; 400 LVs in each House district; +/-4.89% MoE at 95% confidence level. Results were weighted based on race, age, and gender, based on a likely voter model for this presidential election. 12/12

missed San Antonio in this earlier tweet.

https://twitter.com/ReformAustin/status/1314363506377056256