I realise my reply may seem facetious, so I will give more details. Initially COVID was presented as a simple disease and a bit of ventilation was all that was required. In fact it isn’t.
COVID is a multisystem disease that causes pneumonia skewed towards the highest severity of illness with terrible lung disease, kidney failure, brain involvement and very abnormal blood clotting. Some patients get poor cardiac function too. Treatment is rapidly evolving.
As a result patients are not suitable for care by someone who isn’t an experienced critical care consultant, or nurse. Things happen very fast and experienced clinicians are needed to respond if good outcomes are to be possible.
We used a lot of non-ICU staff to support, and they did a great job, but this was highly stressful for them and for us, and not sustainable given the impact on other services. Nobody was working in anything resembling a comfort zone, and you can’t do this for long.
At the same time our normal business of trauma, cardiac arrests, aneurysms, bleeding, kidney failure, stroke, liver failure, pneumonia, cancer surgery, cardiac surgery, bowel surgery, transplants, sepsis and other conditions keep coming. These people too need specialist care.
The fact is Critical Care tripled its capacity during the surge, at least in my hospital. This was a massive effort and achievement.
We face the potentially same again or worse whilst being asked to provide a full “NHS worth” of critical care at the same time.
ICU nurses take a couple of years to train, airway skilled registrars perhaps five years post qualification (ie 10 years), and consultants like me roughly 15 years from school leaver to consultant.
So we can’t turn on a dime. We did second a lot of people into ICU, but this is a transformation unprecedented in peacetime healthcare, and the necessary permanent expansion of critical care will take a lot of resources.
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Reckless with Hydroxychloroquine, there is a better chance Trump will be right that REGN-CoV2 will be of benefit. But we don’t know for sure and RCTs are essential
Not so sure millions of doses will be available that fast though…
And there is some observational evidence in #COVID19 for convalescent plasma, the active ingredient of which is mixed antibody
Really important paper. It proves that live virus can be cultured from air 2-5m from patients, and gets suspended in the air. This doesn’t mean social distancing is valueless, but it means it is not enough.
There are major implications for businesses returning to work in September:
1. Social distancing won’t be enough 2. Cloth masks won’t be enough - these particles are <1micron in diameter 3. Keeping the windows open is a good idea
2/
4. We will need to review standards for ventilation and air conditioning 5. Risks will depend on the prevalence of SARS-CoV2, footfall, and immunity… 6. Probably respires particles like these are the most dangerous because they get right into the alveoli of the lungs
3/
They lacked capacity, and lacked the imagination to go to big molecular labs for help, or to take on staff for proper contact tracing. Their plan was superficial and not calibrated for a more major or lethal pandemic.
You either need a lot of courage or you need to feel very safe to stick your head above the parapet and say something unpopular. And in a pandemic the decisions are huge.
Inflexible? We have doubled ICU capacity in a month
I went into an ICU with 14 COVID mostly ventilated patients ~30 times last week, and the nursing staff probably spent 30h in there each… I am one of thousands risking our lives
“Pandemic” has been No 1 on the national risk log for years
All governments have failed to regard spare capacity in the NHS as a strategic asset, and the last 10y cuts have made this worse
No ideology will make Healthcare suddenly cheap and infinitely flexible
The outrageous thing is that the Telegraph has been at the forefront of those denigrating sober careful analysis of fact in favour of uninformed ideology - that is our problem today…
Johnson all set to give away £9bn to the wealthy, sell off the NHS and impoverish generations, and what is @UKLabour doing?
Nothing…
Why am I angry?
We live with the hopes and fears of our patients and their loved ones
It outrages me that Brexit will require Drs to break the bad news that a people will die, avoidably but for the predictable economic harm Brexit will do
It’s not a game
The cynicism of both parties shocks me
Nobody has ever advanced a cogent case for Brexit
Both parties have peddled blatant lies, perverted facts, and drawn bogus conclusions…
It’s a Tory Brexit, but Labour is shamefully complicit in a dirty electoral game