Thread by @JeremyFarrar

Plan Continuation bias (PCB) - playing a role in COVID19? Lessons from aviation industry. A fancy name for “get-there-itis”. PCB which is an unconscious cognitive bias to continue the original plan in spite of changing conditions — & it can be deadly for general aviation pilots

Plan continuation bias was identified in a NASA Ames human factors study from 2004 which analyzed 19 airline accidents from 1991 to 2000 that were attributed to crew error. Out of those, almost half involved plan continuation bias. humansystems.arc.nasa.gov/flightcognitio…

Problem is in how it manifests. Study offered it becomes stronger as you near completion of the activity (e.g., approach your destination). It essentially impedes pilots from recognizing that they need to change course of action & because it’s unconscious,it often goes undetected

It can also block subtle cues that conditions have changed. Situational awareness becomes compromised in these scenarios, blinding the pilot from outcome he/she is rapidly marching toward. No surprise rapidly changing conditions also played a major role in many of these cases.

NASA study highlighted critical decision-making breakdowns, like the resistance to divert to an alternate airport or the refusal to go-around. Remember, plan continuation bias gets stronger the closer you are to home or the closer you are to the outcome you are trying to achieve.

A study by the University of Illinois discusses the coupling of plan continuation bias with other biases such as confirmation bias.

Confirmation bias is best described as an inclination to seek out cues that support previously established hypotheses and disregard cues that support a competing belief. You can start to see how these human factors maladies can begin to stack up against you.

Plan continuation bias also hitches up with another problem, which is the human condition that says, “reactive responding is easier than proactive thinking.”

So once you get too far down the wrong road, the biases get stronger, task saturation kicks in, situational awareness goes bye-bye, and you are totally defensive, no longer thinking ahead of the airplane.

Lessons for all of us, in all walks of life. Certainly lessons for decision making fast moving, rapidly evolving epidemics & in public health, as situations change, choices get harder, especially if things seem like they might improve. Lessons for decision making in #COVID-19