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Alexander Baunov

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9 Oct, 8 tweets, 3 min read

1/8 Russia is not charging in to help its ally Armenia because it doesn’t just matter who is under attack, but who they are under attack from. My take on Russia's present role in #NagornoKarabakh carnegie.ru/commentary/829…

2/8Unlike other former Soviet republics with frozen conflicts (Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova), Azerbaijan has not been an enemy state for Russia. Azerbaijan has cooperated with NATO, but it has never voiced any official ambition to join the alliance bit.ly/3jK43OH

3/8 Among the former Soviet states, Azerbaijan has always been an example of how to follow a foreign policy that is entirely independent from Russia, while maintaining a good relationship with Moscow bit.ly/3jK43OH

4/8 So Russia may have reasons to help Armenia, but it has no reason at all to punish Azerbaijan bit.ly/3jK43OH

5/8 Armenia is an important Russian ally. But the Kremlin has been apprehensive of the current Armenian government ever since it came to power, as it is the result of regime change brought about by street protests bit.ly/3jK43OH

6/8 Armenia may be Russia’s ally, but Azerbaijan is not its enemy, and nor is Turkey, which is backing Azerbaijan bit.ly/3jK43OH

7/8 Squeezing the United States out of regional conflicts is more important for Russia than stopping other regional powers from gaining a bigger role in them. Being free to act without Western interference is also important for Turkey bit.ly/3jK43OH

8/8 A harbinger of possible Russian military intervention are the reports that Syrian rebels are fighting for Azerbaijan in Karabakh. Russia has no reason to punish Azerbaijan’s army, but sees Islamist fighters from the Middle East as a legitimate target bit.ly/3jK43OH

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More from @baunov

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

5 Oct

1/5 Now the old methods are proving less effective in forcing Navalny outside the already narrow Russian political space. My new short piece carnegie.ru/commentary/828…

2/5 It’s his increased visibility and unwitting mythologization brought about by the poisoning that have prompted the accusations that Navalny is a CIA agent parroting a foreign paymaster’s charges against Putin personally bit.ly/3jzeZOX

3/5 Putin, who believes that enemies deserve respect, while traitors do not, doesn’t want to do Navalny the honor of giving him the status of an enemy.

Read 5 tweets

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

1 Oct

1/7 Among much real and imagined bad news from Russia, this really is awful bit.ly/2SeZaRJ

2/7 Russia’s Investigative Committee has arrested staff & doctors of companies that provided surrogacy services to single men (in reality, some of them in gay couples), is removing children from their families, & threatening to charge the fathers with trafficking children.

3/7 There is ongoing discussion about the moral and legal aspects of surrogacy around the world. But the arguments the Russian authorities are using in this particular case have nothing to do with protecting women or children.

Read 7 tweets

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

8 Sep

1/6 Lukashenko was quicker that others to offer a conspiracy theory about Navalny’s poisoning that points the finger at the West. bit.ly/2Gzxl3K

2/6 The Belarusian president’s intervention in the Navalny affair ties it to his country’s unrest, even if the demonstrations did not factor into the decision to attack the opposition leader.

3/6 Few will believe the version of events implied by Lukashenko’s purported recording of a phone call between officials in Berlin and Warsaw. But it is meant to provide Russia’s state propaganda with yet another dubious narrative with which to muddy the waters.

Read 6 tweets

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

3 Sep

1/8 There is a considerable difference between the #Navalny case and previous poisonings where Russia was accused. Alexander Litvinenko & Sergei Skripal were exiles poisoned in a foreign country (the UK) and hardly known to anyone in Russia or abroad before the attacks.

2/8 Navalny is very well known both inside and outside Russia, and was poisoned on Russian soil. The others were figures from the past, he is a figure from the present, if not the future

3/8 Litvinenko & Skripal were former Russian security service members and could be seen by the special services as traitors who should be punished.

Read 8 tweets

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

1 Sep

THREAD 1/7 By supporting Lukashenko, Putin confirmed that the legitimacy of any foreign regime is calculated not by the transparency of procedures or the popularity of the leader, but by whether or not the previous distance between that country and the West is preserved.

2/7 Putin’s attitude toward the Belarusian regime sheds light on how he sees his own power and its inherent potential for the use of force. bit.ly/3hQSjsH

3/7 Satisfied that Lukashenko was indeed determined enough, and that there was no division, the Kremlin made the decision once and for all to support him. After all, there’s no other visible candidate who would better guarantee the Union State that Russia and Belarus form

Read 7 tweets

Alexander Baunov

@baunov

15 Aug

THREAD 1/6 The Belarusians recognize that their dictatorship predates Russian President Vladimir Putin, and do not try to explain it as something imported from Russia. This makes the Belarusian protests much freer of geopolitical meaning bit.ly/3iNyC5f

2/6 With the Belarusian protests, the lack of an obvious demand to change the country’s geopolitical orientation makes it less comprehensible and less interesting for Western politicians and journalists.

3/6 Even if the West had more interest in the Belarusian revolution, it would be hard for it to formulate proposal for the country. This isn’t a case of a pro-Russian regime oppressing a pro-Western population and stopping it from following the geopolitical path it would like to.

Read 6 tweets

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