NEW RF analysis of the Chancellor's 'extended Job Support Scheme' announced today. Short thread with full report published shortly...
1. If it looks like furlough, it works like furlough, and it (almost) pays like furlough...it probably is furlough (the March version but with a lower top-up of 67%)
2. While less generous than the Job Retention Scheme for employees, the Chancellor's new scheme is still in line with other European schemes in terms of support for workers.
3. Those moving onto the 'extended Job Support Scheme' can expect to retain a high share of their previous earnings. But it has come far too late for many for many workers, who have already lost their jobs and face a far bigger income shock moving onto Universal Credit.
4. If hospitality businesses in local authorities that currently have some form of additional restriction are asked to close then up to 440,000 hospitality employees could be using the new furlough scheme in early November.
5. And the cost of the new scheme if take-up were to hit 440,000 employees? Around £2.4bn over six months...
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@karlhandscomb@dan_tomlinson_@carapacitti@hcslaughter_ 1. The new 'expanded Job Support Scheme' looks remarkably similar to the Job Retention Scheme, but with employee support reduced from 80% to 67%. @RishiSunak has rightly brought back furloughing in the event of local lockdowns
@jreynoldsMP@JenniferTHF@gustafmaja Kicking off her presentation on the impact of the covid crisis across generations, @gustafmaja notes that rising mortality has overwhelmingly fallen on older generations.
@jreynoldsMP@JenniferTHF@gustafmaja Looking at the effect of the crisis on mental health problems, we see more of a U-shaped pattern with young adults and young pensioners most affected. This likely reflects concerns about health, and the wider economic and social effects of the crisis.
How has the COVID-19 crisis affected different generations in terms of their health, wealth, living conditions and living standards? Here's a quick chart thread from our Intergenerational Audit published today... resolutionfoundation.org/publications/i…
The starkest impact of COVID-19 has been on mortality, which has overwhelmingly fallen on older generations. All cohorts aged 45 and over have suffered a sharp rise in their mortality rate.
But the effects on mental health and well-being across the age range are mixed. In lockdown, 80% more 18-29-year-olds reported experiencing higher-than-normal levels of mental health problems in April. There was a sharp increase in mental health problems among 65-79 year olds.
With our annual Intergenerational Audit published tomorrow, we look back at recent research from our Intergenerational Centre on the impact of the crisis so far. Lot more to come in the Audit!
Employment and pay: Even three years after having left full-time education, we estimate that the employment rate of this year’s graduates could be 13 per cent lower than it would have been absent the crisis.
Employment and pay: Moreover, a large proportion of nongraduate leavers tend to begin their careers in sectors that were largely shut in the lockdown and are likely to suffer declines over the medium-to-longer term, such as retail and hospitality.
Published today: ‘Rainy Days’, our new audit of wealth in Great Britain: how it was distributed before coronavirus and how the crisis is affecting families’ balance sheets. This launches a new 3-year partnership with @standardlifefdn. resolutionfoundation.org/publications/r…
The context for the report is the huge rise in the total amount of household wealth from 4 to 7 times national income. With so much more wealth around, its distribution and the way it affects living standards is critical, particularly as we face the coronavirus crisis.
Wealth inequality is very high – twice as high as income inequality – as measured by the Gini coefficient – but on this measure the UK does not stand out compared to other countries.
Spring Budget 2020 - our overnight analysis is now live on our website. Here's a long thread of the some of the highlights. All 37 charts, and 59 pages of analysis, are available here resolutionfoundation.org/publications/s…
First, the @OBR_UK managed to be both incredibly grim, and unbelievably optimistic in its revised economic outlook. GDP is projected to rise by 7.3% over the forecast period - the second worst OBR forecast on record. And that's before the impact of coronavirus is included...
@OBR_UK Replacing the OBR GDP forecast for this year and next with the @OECD updated forecasts 0.8% growth this year and next would lower annual UK growth over the next five years to just 1.2% - the weakest growth outlook on record (from data going back to 1985)