Ankit Panda Profile picture
10 Oct, 53 tweets, 14 min read
If you’re trying to watch the North Korean parade, it appears that pre-taped footage of a nighttime parade is about to begin broadcast on KCTV. Join us here.
This is certainly ... different.
Wow.
This looks nuts.
Definitely some towed SLBMs in the lineup; tons of MLRS. Larger TELs too.
(Will post a little commentary on Twitter, but I’m chit-chatting live with @oryxspioenkop, @chadocl, and @jeongminnkim here: youtube.com/channel/UCz5Nf…)
Full-show broadcast on.
There’s Kim Jong Un—wearing a grey, western-style suit.
KJU waves from the new viewing platform at Kim Il Sung Square. And he’ll likely deliver opening remarks (as he did at the 10/10/2015 parade).
No face-masks anywhere; risky, but a show of confidence.
Kim Yo Jong.
Kim Jong Un delivers remarks.
Kim looks quite emotional as he acknowledges the efforts of the armed forces.
While we wait for KJU, the systems I’ve gotten a glimpse of so far in the lineup:
– 240/300/600 mm MLRS systems
– NLOS ATGM
– Pukguksong-(1/3) on a flatbed (?)
– Pongae-5 (KN06) SAM
The decision to hold this at night starts to make sense with KJU’s sharp, emotional emphasis on overcoming adversity: basically, suggesting that the WPK’s light will cut through the darkness.
From a propaganda perspective, at least, reminds me of this from last winter: KJU tending a bonfire, providing warmth in the cold.
The show of apparent humility is also evocative of other themes in propaganda from last year. For instance, KJU bowing to workers.
Kim shouts: “Manse!” (Live long.) Looks like the speech is over and we’ll get into the actual parade now.
Getting closer to parade start.
Pukguksong-2 MRBMs.
Pre-taped footage from (probably) Sunchon AFB, showing KPAF pilots getting ride for Su-25/MiG-29 flights.
As @oryxspioenkop notes on our stream, these armored infantry vehicles are new.
KN06 SAMs & KN19 (Kumsong-3 CDCM).
Looks like Pukguksong-3 on the flat-bed. @ArmsControlWonk
Plenty of small arms modernization & introduction of new body armors. Conventional investments continue despite nuclear force progress.
Chemical warfare units: w/ PMK gas masks. (Note: right is from DPRK UN ambassador’s first committee speech today & DPRK is not CWC signatory.)
MiG-29 pilots getting ready (Sunchon AFB).
MiGs off from Sunchon (the benefit of a pre-taped, produced parade is having this footage).
7 x MiG-29. That’s a significant proportion of the total KPAF inventory.
KJU watches as MiG-29s release flares over KIS Square.
An-2 biplanes (?) deliver the WPK logo in formation.
NLOS ATGMs are back.
Converted 8x8 APC ATGM carriers.
New MBTs.
Tons of KN25 launcher configurations.
More KN25.
Pukguksong-4A?
New air defense radars.
KN06/Pongae-5.
KN23.
KN23 on tracked TELs.
KN24.
Hwasong-15.
11-axle ICBM: New *massive* system. Largest liquid-fueled missile anywhere.
Another shot. This would appear to be the “new strategic weapon.”
Wrapping up live commentary on the @nknewsorg stream, but I’ll share more thoughts on Twitter soon. Video here: youtube.com/channel/UCz5Nf…
And, if you want to know how things got to the point of this parade: amazon.com/Kim-Jong-Bomb-…

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More from @nktpnd

10 Oct
#NorthKorea parade “strategic” cheat sheet:
— New, super-large liquid-propellant, 2 (?) stage ICBM (probable Hwasong-16/probable KN27)
— Pukguksong-4A: new SLBM; first North Korean missile with an indigenous suffixed designator
— WS51200-derived Hwasong-15 TELs remain at four (?)
Will do a closer TEL accounting, but I counted 4xWS51200 Hwasong-15 TELs; 4x“Hwasong-16” TELs; unclear on Pukguksong-2 & KN25 counts for now—need to revisit video.
What we *didn’t* see:
— Solid-propellant ICBM
— Mobile-erector-launchers for strategic missiles
— Huge quantitative growth in ICBM/IRBM-class TELs
— *Evidence* of a multiple warhead capability*

* the new missile is, though, large enough to accommodate MRVs.
Read 5 tweets
9 Oct
Quite the feat of timing: shortly before #NorthKorea’s expected 10/10 military parade, Kim Song (DPRK permanent representative to UN) delivers this address to the UN First Committee.
On the possession of nuclear weapons. “We will not pause even a moment on the road of building up most powerful defense capabilities which no one would dare to challenge.”
On New START and disarmament. cc @toby_dalton @PerkovichG
Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
Settling in for a relaxing Friday evening. (Note: still no clarity on when broadcast might begin.)
9AM KT, so the KCTV broadcast is on for the day.
No 9AM broadcast; noon (3 hrs from now) is a possibility, going by a KCTV scheduling gap.
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
Lockheed Martin releases first image of new hypersonic long-range missile system defence-blog.com/news/army/lock… Image
“According to the presentation, the new weapon system will consist of four transporter erector launchers (TEL), each installed on a modified M870 40-ton trailer, and command posts.”
“The Baltimore team is currently under IWTA to Space to design and build 19 intermediate range CPS canisters for long-range hypersonics weapons.” vimeo.com/461952834
Read 4 tweets
6 Oct
<THREAD> Another report looking at North Korea’s burgeoning ballistic missile submarine (SSB) program. A few thoughts. heritage.org/missile-defens…
As I’ve said before, the Pukguksong-3 (which we’ve known about since August 2017) is not Kim Jong Un’s “new strategic weapon”. It’s been tested once already and its predecessor SLBM has been tested since 2015. 2/x
The SLBM program is worth taking seriously, but, IMO, the most serious, immediate threat continues to be North Korea’s land-based nuclear forces. 3/x
Read 8 tweets
5 Oct
NEW: Kim Jong Un oversees 19th meeting of the Political Bureau of the 7th Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK).
“...the title of the Marshal of the Korean People’s Army (KPA) was conferred on Ri Pyong Chol ... and Pak Jong Chon“
Political bureau of the WPK CC “made a responsible and crucial decision to wage a 80-day Campaign of the entire Party and the whole country so as to glorify the 75th founding anniversary of the Party...”
Read 6 tweets

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