Notion: Gap between excess deaths and confirmed Covid-19 deaths could be "lockdown deaths". Let's test this: (a) States with lockdown but low Covid should have excess deaths from lockdown (b) States without lockdown but Covid shouldn't have excess deaths unexplained by Covid.
https://twitter.com/EthicalSkeptic/status/1314658818144468992
For (a), New York had a long lockdown with stay-at-home orders extending into June. But as New York suppressed the virus, both Covid-19 deaths and other excess deaths fell down a cliff simultaneously. So that part of the lockdown deaths theory doesn't hold up. 
For (b), Arkansas adopted only mild measures, no SAH orders. But as Covid-19 deaths went up (blue), also other excess deaths (green) went up above average (orange line). CDC estimates non-Covid excess deaths are 158-1203, compared to 1500 Covid-19 deaths. So (b) doesn't hold up.
Most obvious explanation for both (a) and (b) not holding up? Covid-19 deaths are undercounted in both examples, no matter whether there's a lockdown or not. Undercounting might be worse with a lockdown, as a lockdown implies a crisis situation with more Covid deaths occurring.
Does this rule out any "lockdown deaths"? No. But the evidence that they play a substantial role in the recent death counts isn't nearly as strong as is sometimes suggested around here.
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