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Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
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12 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
So today it seems battle's joined with two separate sessions claiming to be the authentic House special session. Here's some context: look at ratios of deputy speakers, and blocs each group possesses, to assess their relative strengths. NPC's pro-Velasco; Lakas suddenly neutral?
Cayetano's coalition was NP (40 votes), NUP (43 votes), Lakas (19 votes), Iglesia; Velasco's, PDP-Laban (61 v.) and HNP (aka Hugpong 3 v.), with NPC (32 v.) announcing it would back him in this current battle, and Lakas saying it would attend to budget first before speakership.
In public statements Lakas (via Martin Romualdez) was most subtle: saying they would focus on passing the budget thus being publicly loyal to the letter; while not pledging to support any other candidate which suggests maintaining status quo (Cayetano).
Finally weighing in, Mayor Sarah was the most blunt and brushed aside the Palaces' own hands-off statement: this goes beyond the nominal 3 votes she has in the House and is a message to bigger blocs.

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More from @mlq3

Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
13 Oct
Why the story of The Two Speakers has October 5, the public release of the SWS Survey results, as the dividing line between Cayetano Triumphant and Velasco Ascendant. A thread. Before and up to October 5, Cayetano had torn up term-sharing, and left the Pres. w/ a done deal. Image
The cliques of the Ruling Coalition had gone to the Palace on September 29. By all accounts, the President signaled the agreement should be upheld.
Using a tried-and-tested parliamentary maneuver, what Cayetano did was call for a vote of confidence by offering to resign --a vote of confidence he won on September 30.
Read 26 tweets
Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
12 Oct
A thread for the law literalists. True as it goes except in legislatures the world over, tradition and past precedents are very powerful; but like all tradition, only as powerful as the shared belief of legislators in the power of those traditions.
This is why I've come to believe that term limits are more useful in executive positions but actually harmful to sober and effective legislation when applied to the legislature: good parliamentary procedure and mature lawmaking requires time and seasoning that term limits end...
up subverting. So you have what we have increasingly had, ever-more-reckless leadership fights, among other things. Even more than executive positions where leadership changes signal changing priorities due to new mandates, legislation requires institutional memory and a sense...
Read 4 tweets
Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
21 Sep
Why you have to be aware that picking September 21 as the martial law anniversary is a tribute to Marcos who engineered it so people alive then actually forgot there was no martial law on September 21, 1972: a thread.
Marcos himself zigged and zagged about when he proclaimed martial law, but he turned September 21 into Thanksgiving Day enshrining a date that mattered only because of backdating. officialgazette.gov.ph/featured/decla…
Marcos began planning martial law when he became only the second president elected to a second term, in 1969, seeing he would have to step down from office in 1973. He also pursued other schemes ranging from shifting to parliamentary government or running Imelda to succeed him.
Read 33 tweets
Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
2 Aug
Sunday thoughts: some years back, when the previous president dared say that Filipinos working abroad were economic refugees and it was incumbent on government to work harder so Filipinos (not Filipinx) could actually choose whether to work at home or abroad, he was crucified...
But I felt then and feel now, he was absolutely right because what had been going on since Marcos years was Filipinos working abroad actually allowed governments to govern with impunity because whatever they did, an umbilical cord to remittances kept the economy afloat regardless
of how things were (mis)managed at home. But people preferred the ritual pandering to "heroes" which actually trivialized what heroism is. So we got what we got in 2016: only for Filipinos abroad who lost their jobs because of the #COVID19 pandemic, and who had to come home...
Read 8 tweets
Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
17 Jul
Why the pressure now is coming from administration allies for the Lopezes to sell: it's not enough for government to "take back" the frequencies: for the government to truly benefit, it needs to force the Lopezes to sell the network --its properties, facilities, equipment-- or...
else, it will take too much money for someone else to start from scratch, especially if the political weather can change within two years, but without selling the entire network and what it owns, it can't be done. Here, what the Marcoses did in 1973-75 is instructive. All you...
have to do is look back. Having closed down Congress itself, Marcos shut down ABS-CBN, the Chronicle Newspaper, etc. Then pressure was applied precisely to do what is being done now: not just stop operations, but force the transfer of assets and equipment to rival broadcasters...
Read 8 tweets
Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
14 Jul
What's interesting is why he felt he had to justify himself to the military. The rest of his remarks betrays his real concern: animosity between the military and police. People are missing out on the full implications of his having to go and make these remarks where/when he did.
Try this exercise and read his remarks as Tweeted, in reverse, since he indulges in stream-of-consciousness talking anyway. The main problem is this: he only has two years left. The clock runs out then resets for everyone: everyone who's done his bidding, everyone who's gained...
at the expense of others. Since 1986 only one president has has succeeded in getting a hand-picked successor elected so odds are against even this incumbent doing it. If he fails, then: the cops and officials who engaged in and supported liquidations can face charges, victims...
Read 18 tweets

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