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Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
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13 Oct, 26 tweets, 8 min read
Why the story of The Two Speakers has October 5, the public release of the SWS Survey results, as the dividing line between Cayetano Triumphant and Velasco Ascendant. A thread. Before and up to October 5, Cayetano had torn up term-sharing, and left the Pres. w/ a done deal.
The cliques of the Ruling Coalition had gone to the Palace on September 29. By all accounts, the President signaled the agreement should be upheld.
Using a tried-and-tested parliamentary maneuver, what Cayetano did was call for a vote of confidence by offering to resign --a vote of confidence he won on September 30.
Having thrown down the gauntlet and seeing Velasco's people unable to pick it up, by Oct. 1 Cayetano and friends proceeded to crow (and in retrospect, rub salt in the wounds).
By Oct. 2 the taunting, crowing --the hubris-- was such that quite clearly, part of the mockery was based on pointing out the President was a lame duck and the power center was in the House, not the Palace.
Then October 5: the survey revealed a stratospheric rating for the President. The conventional wisdom that the President was pandemic-damaged-goods, that he was weakened, that the House could repeat what GMA did, was suddenly toppled.
October 6: the President, it is said, gives thumbs-up to Velasco claiming what's rightfully his.
It's at this point things start developing relatively quickly in contrast to the lay of the land up to that point, politically.
Cayetano, either on schedule or sniffing a second round in the air, mounts a purge. rappler.com/nation/cayetan…
The Palace, it's notworthy to mention, is still tentative at this point: they are not fully confident yet.
Oct. 7, Cayetano leaves nothing to chance, gavels the House session closed without waiting for the budget to be voted on in 3rd reading.
Oct. 8, in marked contrast to how he seemed passive in the face of Cayetano's parliamentary maneuver, three days after the survey the President makes a not-very-veiled threat against the House leadership.
What follows is the legal muscle to provoke a showdown: the President calls for a special session; Cayetano is reported to have gone to Palace to apologize for the budget furore.
October 9: Velasco says the President told him they'd both been duped. By this time NPC has also publicly sided with Velasco.
Within two days, Oct. 11, instead of the less-than-impressive Pulong, it's older sister Sara bruited about as weighing in:
Oct. 12, the morning begins with a publicized statement of support for Velasco from Mayor Sara.
Oct. 12, this is followed by the Celebrity Sports Plaza putsch, complete with replica mace.
Those looking for signs and portents of where the Palace is (fence-sitting or actively involved?) see signs:
Oct. 12: But Cayetano, an old House hand, knows in a legislature the rules are what matter; he sets about framing the Valasco coronation as a rump session:
That Cayetano has a point is underscored by the President abruptly postponing his expected Monday night harangue. It would have been the time to proclaim victory --if it were secure.
October 13: D-Day as the Special Session was called to begin this day. Cayetano still defiant at this point, in the morning ahead of 3pm session.
Meanwhile, Velasco puts grants absolution to his colleagues whom Cayetano framed for double-dealing (or double voting): they didn't vote; their votes for Cayetano were faked.
And momentum was made visible by means of a breakfast.
So--
8:16 Celebrity Sports Plaza gathering
9:52 Palace announces both Velasco and Cayetano summoned to Palace at 12:30
10:21 Lakas defects to Velasco
10:24 LRay still defiant
10:26 Velasco absolves all congressmen by saying their signatures supporting his rival were "forged"...
10:39 the March on the Batasan begins
10:42 Romualdez reported on way to Batasan
10:45 Rep. Yap calls for issue to be settled (suggesting peace feelers)
10:46 Yap, Villafuerte told: Cayetano allies can keep posts (peace, man!)
10:59 Plenary unlocked
11:06 Lord Velasco arrives
11:28 Lord Velasco mounts the House rostrum with his new, replica mace, being used as the actual mace.
11:34 Boying Remulla arrives
11:54 Alan Peter Cayetano concedes
12:03 Party List bloc, previously ousted, gives Cayetano kiss of death by pledging support for Velasco.

The end.

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Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
12 Oct
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Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
12 Oct
So today it seems battle's joined with two separate sessions claiming to be the authentic House special session. Here's some context: look at ratios of deputy speakers, and blocs each group possesses, to assess their relative strengths. NPC's pro-Velasco; Lakas suddenly neutral?
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Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
21 Sep
Why you have to be aware that picking September 21 as the martial law anniversary is a tribute to Marcos who engineered it so people alive then actually forgot there was no martial law on September 21, 1972: a thread.
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Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
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17 Jul
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Manuel L. Quezon III Profile picture
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