Reports from Germany indicate Boris Johnson appealed to “western civilization solidarity” in his calls with Angela Merkel & senior German officials as part of his pleas for a better EU-UK deal.
Johnson said to have raised green & defence issues as “emotional package”.
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Boris Johnson said to have offered Merkel & German govt “full support” on current & future environmental issues as part of Trade deal plea package.
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Likely that Germany would consider “mini-deals” to ease Brexit even without a “grand bargain” trade deal.
Increasing confidence that “complete no deal” can be avoided. And dialogue will continue “longer than originally planned”.
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I might start a new thread on this soon as I expect the news on this to chaNur quite quickly.
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Supreme Leader Laurence Fox refuses to accept Scottish independence vote as he ‘reluctantly’ agrees to parliament‘s decision to delay the general election as a mark of respect for “victory over the Europeans” in WWII.
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Finance Minister (with special Responsibility for the fashion industry) Sir Darren Grimes introduces a tax on people who finished their degrees as he announces major clampdown on “metropolitans” as part of tax raising measures to subsidise new UK-produced “Farage” car model.
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Incoming BBC Chairman Julia Hartley-Brewer celebrates her promotion from OfCom office by commissioning new 24-part drama series: “Brexit: how we won the war”.
The series is entirely UK financed as global take-up slow - but costs kept low as students requisitioned for roles.
There was actually a way that Coronavirus could have helped Boris Johnson....and perhaps even partially hid the damage of Brexit - at least in the short term...
...but as I’ve been saying for months now that moment has passed.
A thread.
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Right at the beginning of COVID Johnson was remarkably bullish about the issue. And saw no reason why it would impact Brexit.
Why?
4 reasons....
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As EU was hit 1st, GB an island & Tory views of Europeans as anti-risk, anti-science..UK govt assumed UK would suffer the least damage of major EU states.
Such a rosy view also led to idea any COVID damage to economy could hide Brexit costs as UK economy would outperform EU.
In a few months it will be confirmed that going into Brexit year UK govt debt will exceed 100% of UK GDP - for the 1st time since the 1960s when the UK & global economy where swinging along nicely...
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As interest rates are low the UK govt will be faced with a choice 1. Borrow more 2. Raise taxes 3. Spend less
Nr. 3 will be impossible as it now appears UK is entering COVID 2nd wave in worse shape than rest of EU.
So then what...?
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Tax raising also difficult for a Tory govt faced with low growth & a restless No-longer-loyal-rightwing-media.
So my prediction
UK will spend next 2 years attempting to reflate economy on borrowed money.
Reports out of Brussels indicate that the EU will take legal action against the United Kingdom this week - and that a "letter of formal notice" has been already been agreed among EU legal representatives.
Earlier this year UK govt attempted a high-stakes gamble with UK car industry.
Little remarked upon outside the industry at the time - it was an attempt to "do" Brexit & save the jobs of car workers.
He just lost.
A Thread
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Absurd as this sounds - the UK govt agreed products - specifically car products - from Japan or South Korea would be stamped “Made in Britain” in a plan to save the UK car industry post Brexit.
The point was Nissan & Toyota - key Japanese car makers in UK - were to be safeguarded against Brexit.
He needed to do that as automotive sector worth £18bn to the UK economy & directly employing 168,000 people with hundreds of thousands more in supply, retail & servicing.
So this might confuse a few people...but as a remainer I confidently predict there'll be no "7 000 lorry parks in Kent" or "40km tailbacks" to enter the County's ports as suggested in the media.
Why am I so confident in this prediction?
Simple.
"Market forces".
A short thread.
1st point - "low margin exports"
Imagine you're a solid but low tech business. You have no "niche advantage" & compete on price & delivery. Your margin for exports is enough to make a profit but thats it. Higher delivery times, costs wipe this out.
Result?
You stop exporting.
2nd point - "animal/perishable exports/imports"
If there arent enough vets/checks on these sensitive goods EITHER SIDE of UK-EU border come 1st Jan then trade in these will decline thru cost & "time sensitive" factors.
Even if there are - the increased costs will reduce demand.