There was actually a way that Coronavirus could have helped Boris Johnson....and perhaps even partially hid the damage of Brexit - at least in the short term...

...but as I’ve been saying for months now that moment has passed.

A thread.
2/

Right at the beginning of COVID Johnson was remarkably bullish about the issue. And saw no reason why it would impact Brexit.

Why?

4 reasons....
3/

As EU was hit 1st, GB an island & Tory views of Europeans as anti-risk, anti-science..UK govt assumed UK would suffer the least damage of major EU states.

Such a rosy view also led to idea any COVID damage to economy could hide Brexit costs as UK economy would outperform EU.
4/

What become increasingly clear over last 6 months is that not only did COVID hit UK hardest in 1st wave but it’s hitting it harder in 2nd wave too.

This is not just bad in competence terms - it’s actually starting to accelerate Brexit costs - not hide them.

Why..?
5/

UK economy more dependent on consumer spending/debt than other EU stares. This means booms can often be higher but when consumers take fright spending declines faster than comparable states. Easier hire/fire laws mean that furlough is needed more in UK..or job losses instant.
6/

A UK that showed Brexit-Britain outperforming other COVID EU economies is a powerful selling point for Brexit. Brexit then sells itself. This is what was assumed.

Instead UK is now the economy suffering more than anywhere else in Europe.

But it goes beyond this..
7/

If UK COVID is worse than the rest of Europe, the cash-cow London suffers as foreigners avoid it, trade between UK & EU suffers & UK weaker more desperate in trade talks.

We’ve now reached the point that COVID far from hiding Brexit is actually accelerating Brexit costs.
8/

Little remarked upon is that while post Brexit greater trade friction increases costs - greater trade friction with a COVID Hotspot is accelerates problems.

Are we really going to congregate thousands of lorry drivers & customs officials in Kent in January healthily?
9/

Post COVID EU business will withdraw a bit on to what they can achieve the most effectively, healthily inside the EU.

PreCOVID EU might have cut the UK some generous slack - there’s less chance of that now.

The UK needs to recognise this new reality.
10/

This is why Johnson panicking.
He’s gone from confidence that COVID will hide Brexit to realisation UK economy facing implosion come January even as other EU states show up the UK.

The smart thing to do would be to sue for some kind of status quo to get thru 2021.

Will he?
11/

Answer: I don’t know.

But one thing I do know:
Johnson realises, as does his party, that the country is in the biggest mess since WWII, even while many EU states are recovering.

And unlike the EU things will only get worse from January & he knows this.

/ends

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺

Nick🇬🇧🇪🇺 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @nicktolhurst

13 Oct
England 2030

Supreme Leader Laurence Fox refuses to accept Scottish independence vote as he ‘reluctantly’ agrees to parliament‘s decision to delay the general election as a mark of respect for “victory over the Europeans” in WWII.

1/
2/

Finance Minister (with special Responsibility for the fashion industry) Sir Darren Grimes introduces a tax on people who finished their degrees as he announces major clampdown on “metropolitans” as part of tax raising measures to subsidise new UK-produced “Farage” car model.
3/

Incoming BBC Chairman Julia Hartley-Brewer celebrates her promotion from OfCom office by commissioning new 24-part drama series: “Brexit: how we won the war”.

The series is entirely UK financed as global take-up slow - but costs kept low as students requisitioned for roles.
Read 5 tweets
12 Oct
+UPDATE+

Reports from Germany indicate Boris Johnson appealed to “western civilization solidarity” in his calls with Angela Merkel & senior German officials as part of his pleas for a better EU-UK deal.

Johnson said to have raised green & defence issues as “emotional package”.
2/

Boris Johnson said to have offered Merkel & German govt “full support” on current & future environmental issues as part of Trade deal plea package.
3/

Likely that Germany would consider “mini-deals” to ease Brexit even without a “grand bargain” trade deal.

Increasing confidence that “complete no deal” can be avoided. And dialogue will continue “longer than originally planned”.
Read 4 tweets
11 Oct
2021 - a short thread.

In a few months it will be confirmed that going into Brexit year UK govt debt will exceed 100% of UK GDP - for the 1st time since the 1960s when the UK & global economy where swinging along nicely...
2/

As interest rates are low the UK govt will be faced with a choice
1. Borrow more
2. Raise taxes
3. Spend less

Nr. 3 will be impossible as it now appears UK is entering COVID 2nd wave in worse shape than rest of EU.
So then what...?
3/

Tax raising also difficult for a Tory govt faced with low growth & a restless No-longer-loyal-rightwing-media.

So my prediction

UK will spend next 2 years attempting to reflate economy on borrowed money.

But here’s the problem...
Read 9 tweets
1 Oct
+UPDATE+

Reports out of Brussels indicate that the EU will take legal action against the United Kingdom this week - and that a "letter of formal notice" has been already been agreed among EU legal representatives.
2/

BBC's political reporters now confirming this.

3/

This is a very good & readable explanation of the context for this that @StevePeers has somehow managed to get up withn minutes of it happening.

Read 4 tweets
30 Sep
+UPDATE+

Boris Johnson's "Japanese gamble" implodes.

Earlier this year UK govt attempted a high-stakes gamble with UK car industry.

Little remarked upon outside the industry at the time - it was an attempt to "do" Brexit & save the jobs of car workers.

He just lost.

A Thread
2/

Absurd as this sounds - the UK govt agreed products - specifically car products - from Japan or South Korea would be stamped “Made in Britain” in a plan to save the UK car industry post Brexit.

Why did he do this?

bmmagazine.co.uk/news/cars-prod…
3/

The point was Nissan & Toyota - key Japanese car makers in UK - were to be safeguarded against Brexit.

He needed to do that as automotive sector worth £18bn to the UK economy & directly employing 168,000 people with hundreds of thousands more in supply, retail & servicing.
Read 7 tweets
30 Sep
So this might confuse a few people...but as a remainer I confidently predict there'll be no "7 000 lorry parks in Kent" or "40km tailbacks" to enter the County's ports as suggested in the media.

Why am I so confident in this prediction?

Simple.
"Market forces".

A short thread.
1st point - "low margin exports"

Imagine you're a solid but low tech business. You have no "niche advantage" & compete on price & delivery. Your margin for exports is enough to make a profit but thats it. Higher delivery times, costs wipe this out.

Result?
You stop exporting.
2nd point - "animal/perishable exports/imports"

If there arent enough vets/checks on these sensitive goods EITHER SIDE of UK-EU border come 1st Jan then trade in these will decline thru cost & "time sensitive" factors.

Even if there are - the increased costs will reduce demand.
Read 10 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!