Short selling in crypto

A brain dump...
Short sellers have been getting a lot of flack on Twitter lately.

While I'm bullish about crypto/ DeFi, here's a devil's advocate take on shorting 101 and why it's not as evil as crypto twitter make it seem to be.

Obviously not financial advice, just personal opinions.
1/ There are a lot of misconceptions about shorting. It's seen as "manipulative", even "evil".

In a space where most retails are long-biased and only want number to go up, shorting is seen as something conniving and devious hedge funds and traders do to "screw over" retails.
2/ Investors also don't like to talk about shorting in public - it seems like something that's out of the crypto twitter party line, something anti-progress and even malicious.

If long-only VCs do their best to help founders build, what does that imply about short sellers?
3/ I think this mostly comes down to one of the biggest fallacies in the crypto space: that price = fundamentals.

While in the long term, price should be an accurate reflection of value, in the short term, price is a poor indication of quality.
4/ Important also to note that as a liquid market with venture-potential returns, crypto invites people of all time preferences.

Betting against innovation is asinine, but a trader can short intraday or intramonth. Short selling is more of a strategy, not a long term thesis.
5/ To me, there are generally three scenarios when I'd entertain a short on a token (not mutually exclusive)

1) when I don't think the team has what it takes to execute on what the market expects them to

2) when I think price has deviated too far from value

3) as a hedge
6/ Because price is such a poor reflection of quality, fundamentals-based shorts are difficult.

e.g. even after 3 back-to-back 51% attacks in August, $ETC still commands a higher valuation than $UNI today - the most used protocol in DeFi.
7/ Above is a cherry-picked example, but one of many that points to the difficulty of shorting things based on perceived value: because there's no clear consensus for value for many assets in crypto!
8/ On #2 - if an asset rallies significantly with no meaningful catalysts, it is likely to mean revert and retrace part of the move.

For instance, those who think the August rally in DeFi was price running ahead of fundamentals may have shorted some of the overheated assets.
9/ This does not mean they are betting on the projects themselves to fail, or that they're an enemy of DeFi.

People who reply with a list of reasons why X is a Strong Project after someone on Twitter has disclosed a short X position have largely missed the point.
10/ Anecdotally, most of the people I know who are meaningfully short the market (2-10% of portfolio short) recently are actually long term DeFi bulls.

In the short term, shorting correlated assets helped with minimizing short term drawdowns and portfolio volatility.
11/ In the long term, shorting also allows investors to go more long on projects they feel strongly about.

i.e. if investor feels strongly bullish about X, he can short sell Y (borrow Y, sell for cash) and go more long on X.
12/ This also fits into reason #3 many investors go short in crypto - to hedge. There are many ways to create offsetting exposures to hedge different types of risks.
13/ One of the common ways shorting is used is a pairs trade, where an investor bets on 2 assets that are deviating in price but historically correlated to revert.

He does this usually by short selling one asset and going long on the other.
14/ So tl;dr - for investors, shorting is a handy tool in managing risk and volatility.

It may reflect his opinion on the price of an asset, the stage of the market cycle, but not necessarily the long term potential of the underlying project, or the space.
15/ From a market perspective - shorting is also essential to more effective price discovery. If you feel geeky, here's a research paper on that.

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
16/ Now obviously there is a whole history on regulations around short selling (see: Uptick Rule) and their impact on markets.

I'm no expert in this - this thread only hopes to shed some color on why market participants may choose to go short.
ps/ As a side note, Spartan is generally a long-biased fund. We rarely go short, and even if we do it's for very specific events - and more often than not to hedge our book so we can maintain, or even increase, our investments in projects we believe in.
ps2/ To allow us to have less sensitivity to market swings, we also deploy out of our separate venture fund, where we have a more cycle-agnostic strategy. More on this soon.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Jason Choi

Jason Choi Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @mrjasonchoi

4 Oct
Is yield farming over?

Is dead?

A brain dump.
1/ First let's set the stage: August has been a phenomenal month for DeFi bulls.

Now we're in the hangover phase of the DeFi party, with the DeFi perp on @FTX_Official pretty much completely retracing the August froth back to square one. Image
2/ Amidst the rout, there's clear signs of flight to quality in yield farming.

Despite the modest returns of "only" 20-30% APY, Uniswap accounts for ~70% of all TVL in yield farms even as a new farm. Image
Read 22 tweets
29 Sep
Shield mining allows any project to incentivize coverage providers on @NexusMutual.

As of this morning APY for staking for was ~200%+
1/ Just as became the de facto currency for all ICOs in 2017 and for all IEOs in 2018, shield mining transforms into an index bet on all of DeFi.
2/ Projects that are confident in their own technical chops can be rewarded extra staking rewards by providing coverage.

Speculators who want to bet on a project's security now has a way to express their view.

Users can be protected against bugs in risky, unaudited contracts.
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
Usually not a fan of lazy clones, but @SwerveFinance is an interesting experiment given the overhang that @CurveFinance has with its launch.

Its (incentivized) growth has been pretty impressive 👇
1/ @SwerveFinance began with ~$200M TVL a week ago and has quietly climbed to $900M today with 1 single pool.

Comparatively, @CurveFinance has 8 pools totaling ~$1B in deposits. Image
2/ One of my main concerns with holding is the aggressive inflation schedule.

I've warned people about this, and those who listened avoided financial seppuku: a stunning $37 -> $1 drop.

Image
Read 8 tweets
3 Sep
.@SushiSwap is interesting, but risky!

To make it a safer experience, I'm proposing a small % of the development fund be used to reward @NexusMutual stakers.

Some context below.

snapshot.page/#/sushi/propos…
1/ During what felt like a lifetime ago (but actually 2 weeks), @YamFinance launched to fanfare, but a bug quickly led to a 90% plummet in price. Image
2/ Little did many people know, @NexusMutual was offering insurance for to cover for smart contract bug induced loss!

Even at a 90% ANNUAL premium, whoever bought protection would still be much better off than those who didn't. Image
Read 10 tweets
2 Sep
Yield farming is highly risky, but the core idea of incentivizing specific behavior is *insanely* powerful.

Let's look past the Yams, Sushi, Kimchi, Spaghetti ... and let's see yield farming for what it is:

Permissionless incentive distribution
1/ Today, any project can issue its own token, and immediately imbue it with perceived market value by listing it on Uniswap and enabling price discovery from day 1.

This enables projects to incentivize any type of user behavior it wants.
2/ It began with simple user incentives.

@synthetix_io rewarded users who mint synthetic assets with $SNX tokens, leading to explosive growth in 2019.

@compoundfinance rewarded lenders and borrowers with $COMP, leading to a 6x growth in collateral!
Read 8 tweets
31 Aug
SushiSwap, the AMM that's attracted over $750M in TVL in under 70 hours, is trying to dethrone @UniswapProtocol.

But will it work?
1/ Think of @SushiSwap as a Uniswap clone with 1 major difference.

Trading fees are split between liquidity providers (LPs) and holders of $SUSHI, instead of between LPs & equity holders.
2/ To earn $SUSHI, you provide liquidity to Uniswap for one of the select assets, then stake your LP tokens from Uniswap into Sushi.

The plan is after 2 weeks, Sushiswap will then migrate your Uniswap liquidity into their own dex, essentially forking Uniswap.
Read 15 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!