As I and others often say, the stock market is not the economy. It never was. But it may be even less the economy than it used to be, according to a new paper by Schlingemann and Stulz 1/ nber.org/papers/w27942?…
They show that there's a declining correlation between a firm's share of employment and its share of stock market value 2/
Case in point: in the 1950s the biggest market cap was either AT&T or GM, which were also the top 2 employers. In 2019 it was Apple, which was only the #40 employer. 3/
It made some sense to say that what was good for America was good for General Motors and vice versa. But what's good for America and what's good for Apple have almost nothing to do with each other. 4/
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I'm fascinated by the way Trump keeps citing the stock market as proof of how well he's doing. Aside from the fact that it's a terrible indicator of the economy at large, I do not think this market means what he thinks it means 1/
The recent market rise has taken place mainly since the first presidential debate 2/
You know what else has happened since that debate? Biden's lead seems to have expanded by about 3 points, possibly putting him in landslide territory 3/
Trump hasn't even been defeated yet, but he's lashing out like a vindictive man with nothing to lose. This will only get worse as the election approaches, and will be a nightmare during the lame duck 1/ nytimes.com/2020/10/08/opi…
One thing I didn't say in the op-ed is that a post-election Trump won't be like a normal ex-president, who can go on the speaking circuit, have somebody ghost-write his memoirs, and generally kick back a bit 2/
Instead, he — and his family — probably face personal financial ruin if they lose the shield of office and the flow of income to Trump properties. Given the rampant corruption of his administration, many of those around him probably face prosecution 3/
Seeing a lot of talk about the economy and the election that doesn't seem to take into account the fact that we're only 28 days away. Folks, there won't be any new big numbers — we've already had the last job report, which was neither good nor bad enough to move the needle 1/
The GDP report is still to come, and will be a big number— but I think everyone understands that it's about the past, specifically a partial snapback that has already stalled out. Also not going to move the needle 2/
If there was a huge groundswell of growth, people might feel it, but they don't. Nor do they feel the bottom dropping out, although some big layoff announcements might hurt Trump 3/
But appearances matter: by throwing a temper tantrum instead of seeking a deal, Trump probably tilts a few more voters to Biden 2/
So why is he doing it? Pettiness, maybe made worse by his medical woes; and hard to avoid the sense that he especially hates the idea of having to compromise with Pelosi, thereby acknowledging that she has real power 3/
Economic policy was really a secondary issue, if that, last night. Fwiw, viewers apparently saw even that as more or less a draw, while dunking on Trump over everything else 1/ cnn.com/2020/09/29/pol…
But it may be worth pointing out that Trump's signature policy and biggest claim — that he brought manufacturing back with his trade wars — is false. Manufacturing trade deficit (nonag/nonoil, which is a good proxy) has gone up 2/
Also, his tax cut, which was supposed to produce an investment boom, didn't 3/