I'm fascinated by the way Trump keeps citing the stock market as proof of how well he's doing. Aside from the fact that it's a terrible indicator of the economy at large, I do not think this market means what he thinks it means 1/
The recent market rise has taken place mainly since the first presidential debate 2/
You know what else has happened since that debate? Biden's lead seems to have expanded by about 3 points, possibly putting him in landslide territory 3/
The 538 model has marked Trump's chances down to 13 percent, from 32 percent at the end of August. (The Economist model has him down to 9%) 4/
By the way, 538 gave Trump a 29% chance in 2016 — it did NOT predict a certain Clinton win. And state polls are probably better now than then, bc they weight for education 5/
Anyway, while Trump wants to claim the rising market as a form of endorsement, what's really happening is that the market is up despite a clear decline in his prospects. Mr. Market is basically saying that if anything he favors Biden 6/
Now, markets are lousy indicators. Let's not forget this, from Trump's chief economist; the Great Recession started 5 months later 7/
But for what it's worth, the market is not voting for Trump 8/

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More from @paulkrugman

14 Oct
What should economists work on? What kind of work should be honored? Branko has some intriguing thoughts, some — but not all of which — I agree with 1/
He's right that economics should be trying to answer the big questions. On the other hand, research should focus on questions it can actually answer. Raymond Chandler in "The simple art of murder": 2/ Image
PS, "other things being equal" — Chandler sounding like an economist! Anyway, something to be said for not biting off more than anyone knows how to chew 3/
Read 7 tweets
14 Oct
This analysis got somewhat lost in the shuffle, but Charles Koch is going big for Barrett — not bc he hopes she'll destroy Roe or the ACA, but because he hopes she'll destroy the planet 1/nytimes.com/2020/10/12/opi…
That is, the most consequential effects of a stolen R court majority may not be on health care or right to choose — important as they are — but on gutting environmental policy. And the survival of civilization seems to me more important than imaginary norms 2/
A further thought. My guess is that if Ds take both the WH and the Senate, the stolen court won't overturn Roe or the ACA, which it knows would lead to quick court expansion. Instead, it will save its ammunition so it can engage in sustained sabotage of environmental policy 3/
Read 4 tweets
12 Oct
As I and others often say, the stock market is not the economy. It never was. But it may be even less the economy than it used to be, according to a new paper by Schlingemann and Stulz 1/ nber.org/papers/w27942?…
They show that there's a declining correlation between a firm's share of employment and its share of stock market value 2/
Case in point: in the 1950s the biggest market cap was either AT&T or GM, which were also the top 2 employers. In 2019 it was Apple, which was only the #40 employer. 3/
Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
Trump hasn't even been defeated yet, but he's lashing out like a vindictive man with nothing to lose. This will only get worse as the election approaches, and will be a nightmare during the lame duck 1/ nytimes.com/2020/10/08/opi…
One thing I didn't say in the op-ed is that a post-election Trump won't be like a normal ex-president, who can go on the speaking circuit, have somebody ghost-write his memoirs, and generally kick back a bit 2/
Instead, he — and his family — probably face personal financial ruin if they lose the shield of office and the flow of income to Trump properties. Given the rampant corruption of his administration, many of those around him probably face prosecution 3/
Read 4 tweets
8 Oct
Republicans take policy positions so toxic that voters refuse to believe that they're actually espousing them 1/ vox.com/21502189/preex…
Matt Yglesias quotes a very old column of mine on the same phenomenon after 9/11 2/ nytimes.com/2001/12/21/opi…
Here's the money graf 3/
Read 4 tweets
6 Oct
Seeing a lot of talk about the economy and the election that doesn't seem to take into account the fact that we're only 28 days away. Folks, there won't be any new big numbers — we've already had the last job report, which was neither good nor bad enough to move the needle 1/
The GDP report is still to come, and will be a big number— but I think everyone understands that it's about the past, specifically a partial snapback that has already stalled out. Also not going to move the needle 2/
If there was a huge groundswell of growth, people might feel it, but they don't. Nor do they feel the bottom dropping out, although some big layoff announcements might hurt Trump 3/
Read 4 tweets

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