Local contact tracing is where local authorities set up local teams to contact cases that the national team is unable to reach within 24hrs.

They're seen as part of the solution to rising case numbers in England.
And with good reason. Early data from places like Blackburn with Darwen @BWDDPH suggest that they're able to reach up to 9 out of 10 cases that couldn't be contacted by the national team.

manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/uk-news/h…
Some of the cases that that national team miss don't want to be reached and won't ever engage.

Some just missed the call or didn't recognise the number.

And others are likely to be more vulnerable, socially isolated, digitally deprived, transient, or economically worse off.
So simple things like having a local phone number and a local voice seem to work. Plus speaking the right language, being able to visit people at home, and provide support to help with isolation.

Essentially, knowing the local population and how to reach vulnerable groups.
The idea of local contact tracing's generally been well received.

LAs are keen to get local systems set up to help with rising cases. And it's a partnership - it helps T&T, and the national T&T/PHE support the local authorities to get going with advice/templates etc.
Initially national support was prioritised for areas with most need.

The @lgcplus report that 73 upper tier authorities will be live by mid-month - that's about half.

lgcplus.com/politics/coron…
Models will vary. Some will be 5 day services, some 7 day. Some include knocking on doors, others just call handlers.

And the variation is entirely driven by local resources to staff the systems, the capacity and time available to get them up and running.
They take a massive effort to get off the ground - colleagues across legal, ICT, customer services, environmental health, comms, public health, information gov, community services, finance, and more.

And everyone's already busy up to their eyeballs.
But it's an additional tool for local authorities trying to cope. And that's appealing.

However, it's getting harder for LAs to manage.

Case numbers are rising, and last week T&T only managed to reach around 75% of cases, down from an avg of around 80% in the past month or so.
And remember that local systems generally take cases after just 24hours.

The % of cases reached with 24hrs by T&T has been really tailing off ]and now stands at 58%, down from around 75% just 3 weeks before.
This kind of case load is either already unmanageable, or is getting that way. Local authorities haven't had any more money to do this.

They're working off their share of the £300m from when they developed local outbreak control plans in June.

gov.uk/government/new…
The success of local contact systems depends on the national NHS Test and Trace service, it's explicitly a partnership.

Local systems can't handle all the cases, and they're not meant to.

But they're being asked to do more and more.
Today, @BorisJohnson announced that those areas with the highest alert rating would receive additional £ for local test and trace.
This is v welcome, but if we want contact tracing to be 'local by default' and a true partner of the national system, then this won't be enough.

Especially is those local systems are then asked to also follow up contacts (these are currently fed back into T&T once identified).
Instead, funding is going to be required for local authorities across the country. Not just those with the highest case numbers.

It needs happen BEFORE places get to that stage (although perhaps it's already too late for that).
There will need to be significant recruitment initiatives or routes to transfer T&T staff to local gov. The money needs to be enough to cover the admin support, the HR time, the training, the supervision, the IT, etc.
And this will help with managing local cases and limiting spread/outbreaks. As contact tracing is supposed to.

But it isn't a silver bullet. Everything else still needs to happen as well.
But even more optimistically, it *might* just allow public health teams to start thinking about their business as usual - the smoking services, sexual health services, inequalities work, health checks, obesity prevention etc that's all been put on hold through much of this.
The legacy of COVID won't be contact tracing, it'll be the gaping inequalities in health, social, and economic opportunity left behind.

This is what local public health teams and local go do best.

And they NEED to be doing this AS WELL AS tackling COVID.
Yet long term budgets have been cut.

The public health grant down by nearly £1bn since 2015/16. A 17% fall in council spending on local services since 2009/10, cuts that have disproportionately affected more deprived areas.
So whilst more welcome local financial support is being divvied out for COVID, the long term challenges remain and are getting worse.
To level up, to be local by default, means local gov can't continue to be the go-to budget line for national economic savings.

COVID shows us now more than ever why local gov and local public health teams are so critical, and why it needs urgent long term investment.

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More from @ADMBriggs

8 Oct
Week 18 Test & Trace data summary. 24/09/20 – 30/09/20.
And some of today's PHE surveillance rpt as well.

Not so good.

Cases, admissions, deaths up.

TT performance continues to worsen, not to mention Excelgate.

Summary in picture, detail in thread 👇

gov.uk/government/pub…
Cases in pillar 1 up 13% from 5,171 to 5,855 (NHS/PHE labs – outbreaks/hospital)
Cases in pillar 2 up 64% from 27,761 to 45,620 (community)

Number of new people tested – no change. This seems to have plateaued (see later in thread about this and positivity rates)
By age – rises in all age groups but note BIG jump in cases among 10-19yr olds.

This is alongside no change in number of new people age 10-19 tested.
Read 32 tweets
1 Oct
Week 17 Test & Trace data summary. 17/09/20 – 23/09/20.

Not a pretty picture.

Cases ⬆️61%.
Tests ↔️
Test positivity rate ++⬆️from 3.3% to 5.3% (+ some useful detail by age)

Test and Trace performance worse.

gov.uk/government/pub…

Summary in picture, detail in thread 👇
Despite no change in number of tests,

- cases in pillar 1 ⬆️34% from 3,653 to 4,898 (NHS/PHE labs – outbreaks/hospital)
- cases in pillar 2 ⬆️67% from 15,853 to 26,475 (community)

Means positivity for pillar 2 ⬆️from 3.3% to 6.7%
And pillar 1 ⬆️from 1.8% to 2.5%
And like @PHE_uk surveillance, they now give data by age

Case numbers still dominated by 20-29/yr olds, but growth in cases across all ages (except 90+)

And there are big differences by age, steep rises across all age gps b/w 20-70yrs
0-19yrs much less change in positivity rate
Read 24 tweets
1 Oct
REACT-1 study results - data to 26th Sept. Some context.

1 in 200 in Eng infected (far more than ONS survey to 19th Sept, which estimates 1 in 500)

R number lower-now 1.1, doubling time longer-now 10.6 days, BUT rise in number infected is substantial.

imperial.ac.uk/news/205473/la…
Prevalence highest in 18-24y/o (same as ONS)
BUT 7 fold increase in rate over 65y/o.

And BIG regional variation.

This is similar to ONS survey results.
So encouraging that R number falling, BUT this will be different in different parts of the country.

Rise in infection rates in older people.

Rates 2x as high in Black & Asian ethnicity vs White

And now 0.55% of population infected=approx 411,000 people (ONS estimate 104,000).
Read 5 tweets
28 Sep
V interesting, contrary to what @PHE_uk have find in their weekly surveillance report based on cases. @ONS survey finding infections rates rising fastest among least deprived population groups
The ONS survey is representative, which generally means it's trusted as a clearer picture of what's going on nationally that national case data where access to tests is limited.

ONS suggest cases driven by those under 35 y/o, who have large numbers of contacts/social gatherings. ImageImage
It's not students, but recent travel abroad seems important. Note ONS point about young people working outside home not necessarily being different to young people working elsewhere. ImageImageImage
Read 9 tweets
25 Sep
A few updates from today's @ONS COVID infection survey and @PHE_uk weekly COVID surveillance report.

ONS survey reporting now around 9,600 new infections/day in England.

Rises in all age gps, esp age 17-24y/o

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… ImageImage
Today's @PHE_uk report with data to 20/09, shows continued rising positivity rates for pillar 1 (hospital/outbreaks, now 2%), and pillar 2 (community - now 5%).

This is inline with T&T data to 16/09 published yesterday



assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… Image
Still can't infer much from these data because of difficulties accessing tests, but the pillar 1 and 2 testing data match ONS, with increases continuing among 20-29y/o.

Note also though case rate rises in 30-59y/o age gps. ImageImage
Read 14 tweets
24 Sep
Remarkable pre-print on adherence to Test & Trace guidance from @SusanMichie @louisesmith142.

TL/DR: 50% surveyed correctly recognise symptoms, 12% get a test, 18% isolate, 76% intend to share contacts, 11% of contacts isolate.

*not yet peer reviewed*

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Longitudinal survey including 31,737 people over 5 months from March.

Just 50% know COVID symptoms (no change over time)

Of those with COVID symptoms - just 18% isolated (getting worse over time) and 12% requested test (no change over time despite increasing test availability) ImageImageImage
Although 76% did say they would share details of close contacts (not far off T&T data but note, this is intended behaviour only, not actual) Image
Read 10 tweets

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