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Michael Otsuka Profile picture
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13 Oct, 6 tweets, 2 min read
This tweet from yesterday👇on the Manchester VC's interview with @bbcnickrobinson is now my 5th most viewed for 2020, at 92k and rising. Countdown of the other 4 below. 1/5
#4 with 136k views: 2/5
#3 from before the pandemic with 160k views: 3/5
#2 with 184k views: 4/5
#1 with 320k views: 5/5
PS: 👆Manchester VC interview tweet enjoyed its place in the sun as #5 for only a day, as it has now been supplanted by this tweet I posted this morning👇, which has recently ticked over the odometer with >100k views.

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More from @MikeOtsuka

Michael Otsuka Profile picture
14 Oct
According to the recently released SAGE papers👇, keeping universities open plays a greater role in spreading Covid-19 infection -- ~0.3 (0.2-0.5) increase in R -- than any other activity, apart from keeping secondary schools open -- ~0.35 (0.2-0.5). 1/
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
By contrast:
▶️General directive to work from home where possible decreases R by 0.2-0.4
▶️Closure of bars, pubs, cafés and restaurants decreases R by 0.1-0.2
▶️"Stopping all contacts between different households in the home might reduce Rt by ~0.1-0.2" 2/
▶️Closure of indoor gyms, leisure centres, fitness etc.: "reduction in Rt of up to 0.1"
▶️Closure of places of worship / community centres: "reduction in Rt of up to 0.1" 3/
Read 7 tweets
Michael Otsuka Profile picture
12 Oct
Jaw-dropping @BBCRadio4 interview w VC of University of Manchester: surprised by rapidity of outbreaks!; claims the main problem was failure to sufficiently communicate to students the need to follow guidelines!
.@OfficialUoM VC: "I think we were surprised by the speed and scale of the numbers that tested positive. ...It was very much a feature of something that seemed to happen very fast about a week after they returned – a week to 10 days -- and now they're coming down." 1/
👆WTF? How could you have been surprised, given that *exactly the same thing* happened in university after university in the US in August & early September. 2/
Read 22 tweets
Michael Otsuka Profile picture
15 Sep
A thread on the impending, foreseeable @UniversitiesUK car crash: Cases have been surging since the re-opening of schools & the call to return to work in early September. 1/10
With the re-opening of schools, demand for tests now outstrips supply, and it will be a struggle for schools to remain open as a result. 2/10
theguardian.com/education/2020…
An especially grim upshot is that there is now insufficient testing even for NHS workers. 3/10
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-541568…
Read 21 tweets
Michael Otsuka Profile picture
31 Jul
🚨If university students aren't tested every 2-3 days, "colleges are very likely to fall prey to outbreaks that will place vulnerable people on campus & in the surrounding community at risk for serious illness and death." 1/
consumer.healthday.com/infectious-dis…
This according to @ADPaltiel, a Professor of health policy at @YaleSPH, in comments on epidemological modelling, for which he was lead investigator, published today in JAMA👇. 2/
jamanetwork.com/journals/jaman…
See further comments👇by @ADPaltiel in above-linked press account. ("school" = "university") 3/ Image
Read 36 tweets
Michael Otsuka Profile picture
27 Jul
New paper👇on another superspreader event involving a choir. This one in France on 12 March. Choir practice in indoor non-ventilated room 45m2. Infection spread to 70% of 27 participants. 1/
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
The paper also mentions multiple superspreader events involving choirs👇. 2/
One cannot rule out the possibility that spreading occurred only or mainly as the result of close contact (<2m) mingling of the infected w/ others when not standing/sitting in place & singing. E.g., before or after rehearsal or during breaks. 3/
Read 5 tweets
Michael Otsuka Profile picture
8 Jul
"Sweden suffered a vastly higher death rate while failing to collect on the expected economic gains." x12 more deaths per capita than Norway, x6 more than Denmark. Central bank projected fall in GDP: NOR -3.9%; DNK -4.1%; SWE -4.5%. See also👇. 1/3
nytimes.com/2020/07/07/bus…
"supposed choice between lives & paychecks is a false one: A failure to impose social distancing can cost lives & jobs at the same time. ... simplistic to portray government actions such as quarantines as the cause of economic damage. The real culprit is the virus itself." 2/3
Confirmation that @sjwrenlewis was right when he wrote this👇. 3/3
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Read 4 tweets

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