Thread by @MikeOtsuka

According to the recently released SAGE papers👇, keeping universities open plays a greater role in spreading Covid-19 infection -- ~0.3 (0.2-0.5) increase in R -- than any other activity, apart from keeping secondary schools open -- ~0.35 (0.2-0.5). 1/
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

By contrast:
▶️General directive to work from home where possible decreases R by 0.2-0.4
▶️Closure of bars, pubs, cafés and restaurants decreases R by 0.1-0.2
▶️"Stopping all contacts between different households in the home might reduce Rt by ~0.1-0.2" 2/

▶️Closure of indoor gyms, leisure centres, fitness etc.: "reduction in Rt of up to 0.1"
▶️Closure of places of worship / community centres: "reduction in Rt of up to 0.1" 3/

As I've noted before👇, the extent to which the re-opening of universities contributes to the general spread of infection is not given sufficient weight in deliberations among university members. 4/

https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1278377031173054464

The imposition of restrictions on household contacts & hospitality is a consequence of the re-opening of universities without sufficient mitigation measures in place.👇 5/

https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1289249709081542656

The conflict between re-opening universities & keeping bars, pubs, cafés & restaurants open is now acutely felt in areas with high levels of infection. 6/

https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1313162782699917314

Especially in the absence of a circuit-breaker, it will not be long before many other places in the UK are faced with the conflict & trade-off between open universities & open businesses in the community that Manchester now faces. 7/7

What's needed to mitigate the spread of infections👇.

https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1316651227665575936