OK this is how I think Brexit endgame really playing out right now.
Some of the following is based on reported public facts, some on chatter and some merely personal speculation.
A (small) thread
Some of the following is based on reported public facts, some on chatter and some merely personal speculation.
A (small) thread
2/
Boris Johnson is desperate.
He knows his disastrous Covid policies + global recession + no deal would finish UK off.
But he also knows to backtrack now finishes him off, makes UK look ridiculous & ends Conservative/UK reputation for decades.
He can do neither.
So what next?
Boris Johnson is desperate.
He knows his disastrous Covid policies + global recession + no deal would finish UK off.
But he also knows to backtrack now finishes him off, makes UK look ridiculous & ends Conservative/UK reputation for decades.
He can do neither.
So what next?
3/
Johnson plays the only card he has left - “the stability gambit”.
He appeals to Merkel desire for european stability, green new deal & security. The 2 options above both risk UK imploding - but if Merkel could help choreograph a “fake victory” for UK he can sell to UKvoters.
Johnson plays the only card he has left - “the stability gambit”.
He appeals to Merkel desire for european stability, green new deal & security. The 2 options above both risk UK imploding - but if Merkel could help choreograph a “fake victory” for UK he can sell to UKvoters.
4/
Johnson is prepared to compromise and hide concessions in longterm committees, small print etc but he needs something leave voters & Tory voters can wave a Union flag from - I think this will be fish (altho it’s possible something else could work)
Johnson is prepared to compromise and hide concessions in longterm committees, small print etc but he needs something leave voters & Tory voters can wave a Union flag from - I think this will be fish (altho it’s possible something else could work)
5/
For this to work “the choreography of the deal” must be agreed Before entering “the negotiating tunnel”
The EU must be certain that Johnson serious about concessions & realism on EU deal.
So how will this work?
For this to work “the choreography of the deal” must be agreed Before entering “the negotiating tunnel”
The EU must be certain that Johnson serious about concessions & realism on EU deal.
So how will this work?
6/
Like most things it’ll come down to France & Germany. That’s why Macron talking tough. Macron doesn’t want France to pay the price & will act the bad cop to Merkels consensus cop.
If it’s fish - then Macron will insist on France being compensated - this can be done thru EU
Like most things it’ll come down to France & Germany. That’s why Macron talking tough. Macron doesn’t want France to pay the price & will act the bad cop to Merkels consensus cop.
If it’s fish - then Macron will insist on France being compensated - this can be done thru EU
7/
Germany who’s had a good Covid & whos state finances look healthy will be tempted, as so often in the past, to smooth French/& EU feathers via cash into EU projects to ensure that any EU-UK deal goes through.
Germany who’s had a good Covid & whos state finances look healthy will be tempted, as so often in the past, to smooth French/& EU feathers via cash into EU projects to ensure that any EU-UK deal goes through.
8/
Germany won’t do this because it’s desperate for UK car sales - it’ll do this because it doesn’t want UK to collapse.
We’re the wastrel family member the rest will protect out of enlightened self interest.
But what can UK agree to?
Germany won’t do this because it’s desperate for UK car sales - it’ll do this because it doesn’t want UK to collapse.
We’re the wastrel family member the rest will protect out of enlightened self interest.
But what can UK agree to?
9/
Answer: I think forms of status quo arrangements + agreement to continue discreetly negotiating beyond January 1st....
...but ONLY if UK signs up to EU rules where applied.
Some of this can be hidden, some can be caveated upon UK good behaviour.
But one thing this isn’t...
Answer: I think forms of status quo arrangements + agreement to continue discreetly negotiating beyond January 1st....
...but ONLY if UK signs up to EU rules where applied.
Some of this can be hidden, some can be caveated upon UK good behaviour.
But one thing this isn’t...
10/
If this really does happen - one thing it won’t be is the Brexit promised.
It will be a disguised concessions with some flag waving around fish - a minuscule part of economy.
Will this happen...?
If this really does happen - one thing it won’t be is the Brexit promised.
It will be a disguised concessions with some flag waving around fish - a minuscule part of economy.
Will this happen...?
11/
Will the EU-UK deal happen?
I can’t answer that..& here’s why:
The only person who knows if the U.K. govt can agree to EU concessions in the next weeks is Boris Johnson...
....and he hasn’t got a f*cking clue what the hell he’s doing.
/Ends
Will the EU-UK deal happen?
I can’t answer that..& here’s why:
The only person who knows if the U.K. govt can agree to EU concessions in the next weeks is Boris Johnson...
....and he hasn’t got a f*cking clue what the hell he’s doing.
/Ends
ADDENDUM
Oh look what’s happening today...
Oh look what’s happening today...
https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1316726530601615362?s=20
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