It was often said privately in the aftermath of the 2014 referendum, at SNP conferences etc, that they’d have to wait until polling got to 60% before a renewed referendum push. This is one poll, but overall trend in polls is clear...

Also might interact with trade negotiations..
Within Cabinet - argument about Union weighing heavy on those leaning for deal...

Even the perception No Trade Deal would create specific additional problems herr for Govt ahead of elections next May, could affect how likely EU side see as UK actually going for “Australia terms”
24 hours of news on the Union:

First Minister of Wales is legislating to restrict travel from high risk English areas

Tenders/ plans published for new Border Customs Posts for GB-NI Irish Sea agrifood trade to comply with Brexit deal NI Protocol

As well as a record Indy poll

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More from @faisalislam

15 Oct
Charles Michel EUCO President specifically singles out level playing field and uses example of car industry, and the UK wanting freedom to subsidise (ie state aid) at same time as expecting full tariff free access to single market, says it risks 100,000s of jobs
Barnier - “our positions have been crystal clear from day 1 - if you want access to our market of 450 million, there must be a level playing field” says EU27 remain united and calm
Lord Frost responds as BArnier giving presser:

Read 12 tweets
14 Oct
UK push on tariff free electric/ hybrid car trade with non-European battery rejected in EU draft circulated with member states, obtained by BBC.

Essentially some UK car exports to EU will attract tariffs with or without deal from Jan, after rejection of 70% foreign parts ask
UK asked for a transition of vehicles with up to 70% non-European parts (essentially Japanese batteries/ hybrid systems) to be eligible... after specific asks from within UK car sector.

EU draft says 45% from January (ie majority UK & EU)... (same as petrol/diesel)
... EU draft goes further, from 2027, any electric or hybrid would have to have EU or UK battery, to be eligible for tariff free trade..

Clear strategic effort to prevent UK from being offshore assembly hub for Single market for cars with Chinese or SE Asian electric systems
Read 9 tweets
12 Oct
PM up to explain tier system in UK...

Stressing this is not a full national lockdown... but cant accept “intolerable death toll” of letting disease rip damaging NHS.

Can’t shield elderly while letting it rip in younger population.
Very High alert level, closing pubs and bars, but leaving open retail, schools and universities - applies to Liverpool City Region from Wednesday. Gyms, betting shops also to close there.
* tier system England only, not UK.
Read 6 tweets
12 Oct
Cabinet ministers sending “urgent message” to businesses about being ready for post Brexit trade changes, deal or not, acknowledging “challenging times” but saying that failing to do so risks business interruptions...…
NEW: Cabinet office/Treasury minister Lord Agnew tells MPs traders “not as ready as should be” and criticised a “head in the sand” attitude to biz preps for new post Brexit customs and regulatory border on January 1st warning them to “wake up” and that “their businesses at stake”
The minister accepted to the Treasury Select Committee that businesses were facing a “quadruple whammy” of Covid/ recession as well as repeated Brexit deadlines...
Read 6 tweets
9 Oct
Speaker of the House Pelosi, basically unprompted on that issue, says she has concerns that UK medicines regulatory standards will fall below US FDA standards, and that PM Johnson will approve a Covid vaccine/treatment, which will then be embraced by President Trump...

V specific thing to choose to bring up.... at v least the PM has a serious diplomatic issue with Dem establishment in DC (beyond Irish border/ Brexit) if they are willing to volunteer view that UK has low medicines standards, & willing to help Trump get round US approvals...
This FT story fills in some backstory about a meeting between Pelosi and the WH chief of staff about fast tracking a vaccine...

Read 4 tweets
9 Oct
NEW - government announces Treasury will cover 2/3 of pay for workers in companies obliged to shut down because of Covid restrictions from next month
Understand this is thought to cost 100s millions (per month) - which suggests at moment it will impact in hundreds of thousands. Obviously depends on what exactly is restricted - some aspects of the hospitality industry.

Govt desperate to avoid wholesale lockdown, eg not retail
Govt says not a local or sectoral furlough scheme, but it will pay majority of wages of workers who don’t work in those sectors in regions which are obliged to quite different from aim and strategy of Jobs support scheme, introduced just days ago. Ie no viability test.
Read 5 tweets

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