Charles Michel EUCO President specifically singles out level playing field and uses example of car industry, and the UK wanting freedom to subsidise (ie state aid) at same time as expecting full tariff free access to single market, says it risks 100,000s of jobs
Barnier - “our positions have been crystal clear from day 1 - if you want access to our market of 450 million, there must be a level playing field” says EU27 remain united and calm
Lord Frost responds as BArnier giving presser:

Barnier though at the time, was using the word intensively quite a lot, though it was in French, and pointing to further negotiations in London next week and then Brussels the week after.

But that was errr, Frost-y response to the communique changes as presser happening...
interesting ref to fair or reasonable divergence from EU for UK - a lot of this comes down to same issue that emerged year ago re: how binding are mechanisms to enforce level play field - explained via leaked memo about what UK thought it had renegotiated:
title of that leaked memo was literally “level playing field negotiations” and the “win” hinged on change in political declaration of the word “adequate” for “appropriate”, which was viewed here, but not there as opening the door to rather toothless LPF
Summit pointing to the internal market bill conscious breach of the dispute mechanisms for the withdrawal agreement, as exactly why they won’t back down on same mechanisms with teeth for future relationship, even though they aren’t in most other EU FTAs:

NEW: PM says its time to “get ready” for No Trade Deal
“To judge by latest EU summit in Brussels that [canada deal] wont work for EU partners, they want continued ability to control our legislative freedom, our fisheries in a way that is completely unacceptable”
NEW: PM: “I have to make a judgement about likely outcome...given [EU] have refused to negotiate seriously for much of the last few months and given this summit appears explicitly top rule out canada style deal, Ive concluded we must get ready for arrangements like Australia’s”
PM: “Now is the time for our businesses, hauliers and travelers to get ready... and of course we are willing to discuss practicalities”
PM: “as far as I can see they have abandoned the idea of a free trade deal... only come to us if there is a fundamental change of approach.. [if not] we should do it with great confidence and high hearts. Always was going to be change...”
PM: “Becoming clear they don’t want to do the type of Canada deal we originally asked for... if there’s a fundamental change of approach, ofc we are always willing to listen, but didn’t seem particularly encouraging from the summit Brussels yesterday and today”
in theory this will also mean getting ready for tariffs on UK manufacturing exports, as well as EU imports, the Internal Markets Bill, reneging on some parts of the withdrawal agreement, some difficult transatlantic conversations - here is the full clip:

Understand that this is an offer to come to London by EU side for talks next week, and PM’s message was that this should only happen if they move away from Council conclusions. Barnier mentioned yday that there will be a call with Frost today...

Timing of PM’s message earlier also means that the EU27 leaders can react, if they want to recalibrate the message at their own end of summit statements...
Charles Michel EUCO President just asked about PM’s message: “what we said yesterday remains right today” - “determined to reach a deal but not at any cost”.

Says have to “guarantee GFA, integrity of Single Market, and withdrawal agreement”
Chancellor Merkel says she wont negotiate through media

But then went on to elaborate on Barnier’s words yday on mechanisms to manage divergence fairly

Now on the record Number 10:

trade talks with EU are “over” and “no point” negotiations continuing unless there’s a fundamental shift in its position.

“Trade talks are over. The EU have effectively ended them by saying they do not want to change their negotiating position.”
No 10: “only any point in Michel Barnier coming to London next week if prepared to address all the issues on basis of a legal text in accelerated way without UK required to make all the moves or to discuss practicalities of travel and haulage. If not there is no point in coming.”

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More from @faisalislam

16 Oct
Coming up on @BBCNewsnight with me - exclusive first UK TV interview with Macron’s Europe minister Clement Beaune responding to No 10 saying talks over & Barnier should not come to London. on fish, state aid, internal market bill, and a “misunderstanding” about Canada ...
So progress made over past week, areas of compromise were starting to open up on state aid/ governance.

But PM’s Oct 15 deadline gambit all about getting EU summit to adapt Barnier mandate - didn’t happen... in that respect it is worth careful look at what minister told me yday:
1. Asked reaction to “talks over” & Barnier shouldn’t travel to London @CBeaune tells me “still willing to discuss” & “now up to UK to say whether its worth discussing”.. if UK say “we’re ready to do another round of discussion” we “willing and happy”

Read 17 tweets
14 Oct
It was often said privately in the aftermath of the 2014 referendum, at SNP conferences etc, that they’d have to wait until polling got to 60% before a renewed referendum push. This is one poll, but overall trend in polls is clear...

Also might interact with trade negotiations..
Within Cabinet - argument about Union weighing heavy on those leaning for deal...

Even the perception No Trade Deal would create specific additional problems herr for Govt ahead of elections next May, could affect how likely EU side see as UK actually going for “Australia terms”
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
UK push on tariff free electric/ hybrid car trade with non-European battery rejected in EU draft circulated with member states, obtained by BBC.

Essentially some UK car exports to EU will attract tariffs with or without deal from Jan, after rejection of 70% foreign parts ask
UK asked for a transition of vehicles with up to 70% non-European parts (essentially Japanese batteries/ hybrid systems) to be eligible... after specific asks from within UK car sector.

EU draft says 45% from January (ie majority UK & EU)... (same as petrol/diesel)
... EU draft goes further, from 2027, any electric or hybrid would have to have EU or UK battery, to be eligible for tariff free trade..

Clear strategic effort to prevent UK from being offshore assembly hub for Single market for cars with Chinese or SE Asian electric systems
Read 9 tweets
12 Oct
PM up to explain tier system in UK...

Stressing this is not a full national lockdown... but cant accept “intolerable death toll” of letting disease rip damaging NHS.

Can’t shield elderly while letting it rip in younger population.
Very High alert level, closing pubs and bars, but leaving open retail, schools and universities - applies to Liverpool City Region from Wednesday. Gyms, betting shops also to close there.
* tier system England only, not UK.
Read 6 tweets
12 Oct
Cabinet ministers sending “urgent message” to businesses about being ready for post Brexit trade changes, deal or not, acknowledging “challenging times” but saying that failing to do so risks business interruptions...…
NEW: Cabinet office/Treasury minister Lord Agnew tells MPs traders “not as ready as should be” and criticised a “head in the sand” attitude to biz preps for new post Brexit customs and regulatory border on January 1st warning them to “wake up” and that “their businesses at stake”
The minister accepted to the Treasury Select Committee that businesses were facing a “quadruple whammy” of Covid/ recession as well as repeated Brexit deadlines...
Read 6 tweets
9 Oct
Speaker of the House Pelosi, basically unprompted on that issue, says she has concerns that UK medicines regulatory standards will fall below US FDA standards, and that PM Johnson will approve a Covid vaccine/treatment, which will then be embraced by President Trump...

V specific thing to choose to bring up.... at v least the PM has a serious diplomatic issue with Dem establishment in DC (beyond Irish border/ Brexit) if they are willing to volunteer view that UK has low medicines standards, & willing to help Trump get round US approvals...
This FT story fills in some backstory about a meeting between Pelosi and the WH chief of staff about fast tracking a vaccine...

Read 4 tweets

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