mngander Profile picture
16 Oct, 19 tweets, 6 min read
THREAD MN Early and VBM Statistics - Oct 16 Morning Update. Thanks to all who have commented and let me know they like this analysis. RT & follow, please @CottoGottfried @LarrySchweikart @TRElections @PollWatch2020 @quantuspolling @Politics_Polls @Barnes_Law (1)
(2) I'm going to get uber-geeky today, but it's the data scientist/mathematician in me. Let's take a deep dive into yesterday's numbers. I wanted to answer two questions:
- Where does the net vote margin banked stand today?
- What is ahead in terms of available votes to bank?
(3) So, here's a graphic we can dig into. It breaks down the vote totals and vote margins banked by each of the 8 Congressional Districts in MN. I'll go from left to right, column by column and then from top to bottom, District by District.
(4) First column shows the percentage of total vote in as of yesterday compared to 2016's total, then you can see the pct of Trump's vote today compared to '16 and Biden's % of Hillary's total. Then we have an average of Trump's share and Hillary's share.
(5) The next two columns with colors are meant to show whether one of the two candidates is running low (reddish) or high (purplish) in the pace of where they're getting votes.
(6) Think of it as
Red means you're not getting votes at the expected pace, so you have more votes you can get from here on in

Purple means you're getting votes faster than the usual pace & could exhaust your available pool of votes.

90%-110% is the usual/normal range.
(7) The next columns are net vote margins banked by each candidate and the percentages of the 2016 vote margins banked by either Trump or Hillary.
(8) So, now let's get down to the analysis of each district.
CD 1 - Trump and Biden are neck and neck here and Biden is at 134% of the pace with 23% of the vote in. I think there will be net Trump vote margin here, but question is how much. Worth watching on ED
(9) CD2 - The home district of Jason Lewis. Dakota County is the key. Blue in '16 if Trump flips it, it's probably the whole ballgame. The pacing of votes coming in is good for both, but Trump already has 154% of his votes banked from '16! Could get 20K vote margin banked here.
(10) CD3 - This one is north and east of St. Paul, including a lot of TC suburbs. Biden is over 120% of the pace, so he might be exhausting his voter pool before ED. Trump has plenty of room to get his base to the polls, and chip into Biden's margin here.
(11) CD4 - The urban St. Paul area -- Trump is below the 90% line. 85% of the pace -- shows he has MORE votes to bring in from here on in. Biden is at 124% and has banked 81% of '16 margins. He may run out of available voters to bring on ED. Look for the margin to shrink here.
(12) CD5 - Urban Minneapolis - This is where Biden has to bank votes, or it's over. But, Trump only has 7.2% of the vote he got here in '16! That is 33% of the pace. He's got a LOT of upside to bring voters on ED. Biden is def going to exhaust his voter pool at 220% of the pace.
(13) CD6 - Western Twin Cities burbs into western MN - This one has Trump with 107% of the pace and Biden at 85% of the pace -- Biden has upside but Trump already has 28% of his vote bank from '16. This one may be interesting watch for rural vote adding to Trump's margins on ED.
(14) CD7 - Colin Peterson's district in Northwestern MN - Both candidates running good on pace -- Trump with 20% of '16 vote margin banked. Turnout here of Repubs will be the story as to whether Trump gets bigger margins.
(15) CD 8 - The Iron Range and Duluth - This is the one getting all the airtime. Biden is running hot on his pace here at 143%, so could run out of voters for ED. No net vote banking happening so far. Will need to see if a vote banking trend develops for Trump before ED.
(16) CD8 continued -- if a vote banking trend does show up for Trump and Biden gets hotter on his pace, you can expect a good Republican net vote margin to show up on ED and Trump will carry this CD.
(17) So, in conclusion, Trump has a lot more upside right now and in Ilhan Omar's CD5 in Minneapolis, of all places, but Trump is looking good in CD2 also. If he can make sure he gets some vote margins banked in CD6 CD7, he still looks likely to win MN. Stay tuned here!

Can you guys retweet this so it gets to Republican officials? I'm noticing articles that say MN isn't part of a Trump strategy and I vehemently disagree with that. Trump has to spend time/resources here!!!…
@jkcarnah @LewisForMN -- Good news for you guys, but still work to be done to guarantee a victory! Keep up the GREAT work and let's WIN MINNESOTA for Senator Lewis and POTUS Donald J Trump!

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More from @mngander92

17 Oct
THREAD MN Early and VBM Statistics - Oct 17 Morning Update. Thanks to all who have commented and let me know they like this analysis. RT & follow, please
@CottoGottfried @LarrySchweikart
(2) I have added some rows and columns to my table. Here's the one I've got for today that updates the state of things here in MN with yesterday's data drop from TargetSmart.
Let's go through it! Image
(3) I have columns for pct of 2016 vote and % of the vote each candidate got in '16. I added in the remaining vote for Trump and Biden to reach the '16 totals in each CD.
Read 16 tweets
14 Oct
MN Early Voting & VBM Update -- October 14 THREAD @CottoGottfried @LarrySchweikart @TRElections @davidchapman141 @RealAPolitics @quantuspolling Follow me to get updates! RT also to send to your friends! Many thanks to all who have let me know they appreciate this analysis. (1)
(2)As of today's update, 24.5% of the vote that showed up in 2016 has now been banked by Early In Person & VBM in Minnesota. So, we can begin to get an idea of some of the math that carries us from here into Election Day.
(3) We have 720K votes in so far, and TargetSmart modeling has that breaking down D 361K, R 196K I 163K I had forecasted last week that to keep a flat rate of vote margin banking, we had to get these to 374K 196K and 161K this week So, Rs are OVER their target & Ds are under.
Read 11 tweets
12 Oct
@CottoGottfried @RealAPolitics @PollWatch2020 @davidchapman141 @LarrySchweikart THREAD - MN Early Voting/VBM Update - Lunchtime October 12, 2020. Quick update today, but will have more as we go through the week, so follow me to see more updates. (1)
(2) I checked the D/R/I numbers on ballot returns in Dakota County. Only 1,000 net vote margin banked for Biden so far here and Hillary got almost 25% of her 44K statewide vote margin here. Key county for Trump to keep even with Biden, or flip to red and it's looking good.
(3) CD2 has 36%R, 33%D in its ballot returns so far and that's key to flipping that district back to red. If it goes red, as Dakota County is its biggest population center, it would also flip that county, likely to red.
Read 8 tweets

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