Thread by @CentreforCities

We're about to begin our #CityHorizons with Andy Haldane, Chair of the Industrial Strategy Council.

He'll be talking about levelling up, Covid-19, local economies and productivity.

If you're not joining us on Zoom follow here 👇

He begins by explaining the UK's regional income disparities. As you can see, London leads the rest of the UK.

But, he adds, this is widening. As shown by this chart.

And he adds that these spatial differences are widening. They're now as wide as they were at the beginning of the 2⃣0⃣th century.

And looking internationally, we have a much wider variation in the economy than 🇫🇷 and most other 🇪🇺 countries.

BUT is money everything? Andy explains that Northern Ireland scores highest in the UK on measures of happiness, and London the lowest. As shown in this map. 👇

Andy adds that we must also remember that economies are hyper localised and so INTRA-regional differences are every bit as large as INTER-regional ones.

This can be seen in different health outcomes in Belfast, Cardiff, Edinburgh and London. As shown here 👇

He goes on to explain that the UK bucks the trend seen in other countries in which big cities have high productivity.

In the UK most big cities, apart from London, punch well below their economic weight.

Andy then cites @Paul_Swinney's work on this which has found that we could grow our national economy by tens of billions of £££ if we grew the economies of our largest cities.

But where does Covid-19 leave us now? It's changed:

➡️Home working
➡️Online consumption
➡️Success sectors (food retail etc)
➡️Struggling sectors (hospitality etc)

Andy Haldane adds that many cities have been hit harder than other parts of the UK.

He calls this a levelling down ⏬📉

Andy illustrates this with this map:

🔴Affected by Covid & Left behind
🟢Left behind only
🟣Affected by Covid only

From this he concludes that Covid-19 has hit left behind places slightly harder.

He adds that this is made worse by the inevitable public health challenges presented by living in close proximity in cities. 👨‍👩‍👦‍👦🏙️👪

As a result the pandemic has had a huge impact on how people interact with cities - both in terms of footfall and spending.

You can explore this more on our High Street Recovery Tracker. centreforcities.org/data/high-stre…

Andy goes on to highlight the cities that are most reliant on using public transport verses the car. Something else that is harder in an age of social distancing.

So what effect does all this have on cities?

As you can see from the example of London, the outer suburbs seem to be bouncing back ⏫ more quickly.

And Centre for Cities' analysis has seen a similar trend in Greater Manchester. centreforcities.org/blog/how-are-l…

Andy asks whether this is a sign of a long term trend. He points to the example of home working and suggests that that is probably here to stay.

He notes that this will have impact the agglomeration effects that drive up productivity growth 📈

He suggests that this may grow the economic footprint of the city region - as people can partake in it's economic activity while not physically being in it.

How should this affect the policy agenda?

▪️ Covid has highlighted the importance of devolution
▪️ Sectoral industrial strategies also have a key role
▪️ Frontier sectors (e.g. life sciences) need support
▪️ So does the foundational economy e.g. care sector

To be continued...

Continued....

▪️ The HE / FE sectors are more important than ever
▪️ Digital infrastructure and skills are also vital

On the importance of HE / FE. Andy says it's important to remember that places don't need a university to be super-innovative.

@KEnenkel's work has explored this point in more detail. centreforcities.org/blog/how-will-…

And now for questions... 🙋‍♀️🙋🙋‍♀️

Do we now need to do more thinking about local economic growth and what our local economies look like❓ And how should policy respond❓

Andy doubts that Covid will lead to a mass exodus from our cities. But he suggests that city boundaries may widen.

He adds that 'social infrastructure' (parks, theatres etc) is especially important, but also has spatial disparity. The suggests that this should improve.

Is it possible that if the pandemic endures for the long-term people will begin to see cities as fundamentally unsafe❓

Andy thinks that that is unlikely. But he says it's important to avoid a third wave and is hopeful medicine is improving.

Continued...

He adds that history suggests that cities, towns and the people in them are remarkably resilient. And this gives him optimism for the future.

Are measures of happiness (such as the one in the map) becoming more important, relative to the economy❓

Andy responds that not everything is about money, and happiness also underpins policy making. He suggest that this means it should be treated as a success measure in addition to health, wealth etc.

And that's all we have time for today. Thanks very much to Andy Haldane.

Don't miss out on the chance to join our future online events with a fantastic line up of speakers.

Sign up for invites here👉eepurl.com/do7xoz

If you missed our inaugural online City Horizons event with Andy Haldane today, you can catch up on our website here 👇
centreforcities.org/event/city-hor…