The new version as promised (ver2).
It adds vaccines (at the end because gen1 won't simply fix everything) & tracing has been combined with the fast & sensitive testing slice.
I've combined hand & surface cleaning.
Constructive feedback welcome.
Version 2 also adds a slice for isolation & quarantine. The new Government Comms (includes education) & support slice reflect how essential these are to all of these interventions (especially if you're going into Iso & your livelihood is at risk) succeeding
I haven't added a "lockdown" slice although I don't see any other way to put the brakes on widespread & exponential rises in cases & hospitalizations without acknowledging that no intervention will lead to more deaths than lockdowns (unless there are studies that show otherwise?)
I'm not addressing the basics in this. For example, a good diet & exercise apply to everyday life &, I think it's fair to say, every disease whether acute, chronic, pandemic or non-communicable. Similarly, I'm not adding a "leadership" or "pre-existing immunity" slice.
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An interesting comparison between comments about Madrid on "herd immunity" in an article in June...& numbers today...
I don't mean to belittle the suffering & harm occurring in Spain here - this is solely to point out how misleading it can be to read "most affected regions like Madrid may be close to reaching herd immunity" (quantamagazine.org/the-tricky-mat…)
There is clearly a new wave ripping through Madrid; which is in a state of emergenecy. And while deaths are not (yet) near the levels they were in Peak1 (great news), that may or may not change with time. Nonetheless, Madrid has more illness now than it had during Peak1
A little early in the year, nonetheless, there are fewer flu(+) samples around in the US than there were this time (Wk40) in 2019 cdc.gov/flu/weekly/?AC…
Antiviral activity of an alcoholic hand disinfectant. Comparison of the in vitro suspension test with in vivo experiments on hands, and on individual fingertips.
[from 1983] sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
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"The significance of 'spontaneous decay', in our view, is that it marks a qualitative difference between the 'reality' of hand disinfection and its model, the suspension test.
It also underlines the difference between enveloped and naked viruses in...
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..the hand disinfection situation"
"As to the cause of 'spontaneous decay', one may speculate that the chemical milieu of the skin surface, e.g., pH or fatty acids, contributed to inactivating virions, predominantly those with a lipid-containing envelope.
In addition,..
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Outdoors is better than indoors when considering the risk of infection by SARS-CoV-2.
Dilution of aerosols outdoors & their removal via wind occurs much more easily outdoors than in a closed room especially if that room has no air filtration or active air exchange.
*But* ...
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...that doesn't mean proximity to an infected person & time exposed to them aren't still really important.
We need to keep our distance from others who may be infected and not spend too long indoors or near those outside our "bubbles".
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"Get a test when sick, and isolate while you await your result"
There's something missing from this message and it's
"*stay* isolated, even if your SARS-CoV-2 test is negative because you're still sick with *something* infectious!"
I don't want it. Others don't want it.
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I really feel like this part of the message needs to be stressed otherwise I don't think we're going to learn from the benefits of adopting masks in traditionally mask-phobic countries.
If not, we're just going to stumble back into flu season (also RSV, MPV etc) deaths and
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hospitalizations because somehow they're..."okay" deaths? But that was a pandemic! Seasonal illness & death is just 'normal', silly.
..then we're all idiots!
We've shown we *can* reduce morbidity & mortality due to other viruses, not just SARS-CoV-2
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Some thoughts on wastewater (sewage) testing...
💩Usefulness?
Of most benefit when used in an area with no known cases. Lets us look for a signal that virus is somewhere in that region. Pop-up testing may then be deployed to get a better idea of the situation
💩Mature technology?
Methods/usefulness still being evaluated.
What does a positive mean? How often are false negative/positives likely? Which PCR-based tests are best? What processes in place to confirm wastewater positive result & what response will that trigger if confirmed?
💩Do all agree?
Full spectrum of responses to wastewater testing, from exuberance to dismissal. I think time and continued refinement of the methods will tell which was the best position. As with everything in this pandemic, we're learning many new things as we go.