Thread by @NoTeamsIndy

Biden v. Trump 10/15 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +11.2/Clinton +6.2
EC: Biden 273-124 (+149)/Clinton 272-180 (+92)

AND Biden 50%+ in NINE battlegrounds (49%+ in 13), ZERO for Clinton

Biden lead greater than all undecideds + 3rd party in NINE battlegrounds, ZERO for Clinton

THREAD...

NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 averages

2. Likely Voter (LV) when available, otherwise Registered Voter (RV); no Adult (A)

3. Polls w/3rd party used when given

4. Turnout-hypothesizing polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded

ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

aapor.org/Education-Reso…

2. This is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on the current data. Earliest possible guess at election outcome 11/1, if then, and probably with caveats.

3. And FYI, forecasts aren't "yes/no" *predictions* They're probability reports, and 538's largely matched Team Trump's ~30%. Think of them like the hurricane path charts that show all possibilities, and indicating which ones are more likely.

CONTEXT for 10/15:

2016: 23 days to election
2020: 19 days to election

2016: 1st, 2nd prez + VP debates done
2020: 1st prez debate + VP debates done

CONTEXT (con’t):

10/2-5/20: Trump CoVid diagnosis public; hospital

10/7/16: Access Hollywood tape drops ("grab them by the p*ssy"). ~90 minutes later, Clinton campaign emails released via direct coordination between Trump campaign, Russia, and Wikileaks (see pics)

A1. Debate + Trump CoVid diagnosis: together appear to have given Biden 3-4% bump. Post-debate polls showed him likely to get 1-1.5% bump, and some pollsters found that Biden polled better after announcement of Trump diagnosis and hospitalization.

A1a. VP debate: like the 1st prez debate, polls showed a clear win for the Democrat. More significantly, Harris was perceived as ready to be VP. Veep debates rarely move topline numbers, but the latter takes away an attack line for Trump.

A2. Some 2020 battleground *margins* similar to 2016, but Biden's in a much stronger position: 263 EV from states w/5%+ lead and average 50%+ (273 w/49%+). That means Trump needs over 100% of late deciders, big turnout, AND *convert* Biden supporters!

Returning to 2016...

A2b. On 10/15/16, ALL battlegrounds (margin ≤10%) had double-digit undec/3rd. ZERO double-digit margins on 10/15/20.

In 2016, Trump needed 31-53% of undec/3rd to take leads in "Clinton battlegrounds."

In 2020, Trump needs 93-265% of them to take leads in "Biden battlegrounds."

A2b. By Election Day 2016, Trump had gotten 60, 55, and 65% of undecideds + 3rd party to flip MI, WI, PA

By Election Day 2020, Trump will need 112, 128, and 145%(!!!) to flip MI, WI, PA

A2c. ZERO 2016 battlegrounds lean Trump, and ALL 2020 tossups went red in 2016

Also, Biden is doing better than Clinton in ALL BUT ONE battleground, leading by as much as 22% in NE-1, 20% in NE-2, 11.3% in TX, 9.7% in GA, and by an average of 5.6%

A3. Also, in 2020 several pollsters started "weighting for education" by including more non-college voters, based on 2016 turnout. We’ll see if that turnout repeats in 2020, but it benefits Trump ~3%. So by 2016 practices, Biden would be as much as +14.2% nat'l, with 335 EC votes

A4. Biden *should* be weaker than Clinton, running against an incumbent, who've won re-election 10 of 13 times since 1916 (LBJ, Truman didn't run). In fact, @ForecasterEnten has noted Biden's polling better than any challenger in the modern polling era.

cnn.com/2020/10/11/pol…

A4a. In fact, Biden hasn't trailed in a SINGLE nat'l poll by an A-B rated pollster in 2020. Clinton trailed in TWENTY by 10/15/16. Only 4 ties for Biden (6 for Clinton): latest 4/9, one day after Sanders dropped out of Dem primary.

A4b. Biden’s lead is also the STEADIEST in modern polling. Why? Because both candidates have 95-100% name recognition, and both have served in the Executive. Add to that extreme political polarization, and you have a historically steady race. But also...

cnn.com/2020/09/06/pol…

A4c. Voters just LIKE Biden more than Trump:

He’s currently +6 in un/favorables, 21% BETTER than Trump, whereas Clinton’s rating was only slightly better than Trump's in 2016. Trump's "very/highly" unfavorable is also 17% higher than Biden's!

fivethirtyeight.com/features/ameri…

A4d. This reflects Trump’s job approval numbers, which have the lowest overall average of any president in modern polling. At this point, Trump is trailing Ford, and is just slightly ahead of GHW Bush and Carter.

So why all these comparisons to the last election? First, there are some valuable contrasts to be made, especially since Biden’s running against the same opponent.

But mostly, it’s cuz if ya don’t, people who just don’t like the data will lazily say "BUT 2016!!!"

B1. How's he doing it? Per A/B-rated nat'l polls, 9/15-10/14 vs 2016 exits, he's outperforming Clinton with:

White: +16
White/college: +17
White/no coll: +27
Men: +13
50-64 years: +11
Over 65: +12
College grads: +18
Indies +15
Moderates: +23
Suburban +17

B1a. The most noteworthy of these is that Biden is just 4%(!!!) behind Trump with white voters! No Dem has won this group since LBJ in '64. Only others to get within 5% were Carter 76, and Clinton 92/96, two of the last three Dems to win the presidency. All others lost by 10-20%+

B1b. Reflective of this, he's doing 17% better with white college grads, a group that’s been a key swing demographic since 1988. More importantly, he’s doing 27%(!!!) better with white voters who didn’t go to college, a group that turned out BIG for Trump in 2016.

B1b. The next most notable data point is that he's essentially TIED with men. The last three to do it were Carter 76, Clinton 92/96, and Obama 08. All others lost by 10-20%+.

B1c. He’s winning two other traditional GOP blocs, namely voters 50-64, and over 65. Only Carter and Gore have carried the latter group since 1972. He’s also carrying voters with a college degree, which has been a key swing group in the last few cycles.

B1b. Biden's been doing historically well in the suburbs, currently outpacing Clinton by 17%. This is notable, considering Trump’s less-than-subtle appeals to suburbanites, who were a key swing demographic in 2016.

cnn.com/2020/07/19/pol…

B1c. Biden is absolutely OWNING the political middle, doing 15% better with independents, and 23%(!!!) better with moderates.

B1d. A popular myth these numbers explode is that Biden's struggling with young voters. While pollsters divide age groups differently (e.g., 18-29 vs. 18-34, 30-44 vs. 35-50), he’s running 10% stronger than Clinton among the youngest group, 18-29.

fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden…

B1e. One other myth to put to bed is that Biden struggles with liberals. In fact, he’s outpacing Clinton by 13%, while running even with her among conservatives.

B1f. Biden appears to have mostly remedied earlier weaknesses with Hispanic voters: Trump has lost 6% since 9/1 (returning to his 2016 numbers), while Biden has gained 5% in the same time, just 4% short of Clinton’s support level.

B1g. Similar story with Black voters, with Trump still at his 2016 support numbers, while Biden has gained 6% since 9/1, again just 4% short of Clinton’s support.

B2. Enthusiasm: Trump touted a June poll showing 50% of his supporters “very excited” to vote for him, with just 27% saying the same for Biden. Biden had recently finished a hotly contested primary and was still consolidating the party, but there are two bigger issues here:

B2a. The most recent polls show Biden is basically running even with Trump on enthusiasm (81-84%).

So it seems the enthusiasm gap is GONE (if it ever really existed)!

B2a. Desire to beat Trump ("negative partisanship") turned out record numbers (). Polls show same now, and studies shown negative has been a more powerful motivator than positive since the early 2000's (papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…):

Advantage Biden.

B2b. Possible indication of similar outcome in three recent polls, all of which show Biden winning likely voters who didn’t vote in 2016 by ~20%. 2016 third-party voters are mixed, but average favors Biden.

B3. Early voting: numbers favor Dems, but they did in 2016 too, and polls indicate most GOP plan to vote on Election Day. Also, early voters are usually partisans, not swing voters, who break later (again, see 2016). In short, these numbers are no guarantee of the final outcome.

B3a. For example, Clinton had a 90,000 early voting lead in FL on Election Day, but Trump won the state by 107,000 votes. As we see in the numbers, the gap between Biden and Trump voters on early vs. election day is very wide in 2020.

politico.com/states/florida…

B3b. Polls show 70-90%+ of voters plan to participate in 2020, which would break the records from 2008 and 1960. Further, 71% of Biden supporters plan to vote early, while 54% of Trump supporters plan to vote on Election Day. So until 100% of eligible voters vote, this isn’t over

B3c. Dems are outpacing % of early votes from 2016 pace in states like FL and PA, with large margins over GOP voters, but total votes only represent just 17% and 6% of 2016 votes, in a year where turnout will almost certainly be much larger.

targetearly.targetsmart.com

B3b. Further, new GOP voter registrations since 2016 have outpaced Dems in key swing states, including NC, FL, and PA, which could potentially neutralize (or overtake) Biden’s other advantages.

cbsnews.com/news/voter-reg…

But even if turnout is strong enough to sustain Biden’s leads, polling can CHANGE. Clinton's polls dropped 5-7% from 10/15/16 to Election Day (esp after Comey letter), costing her leads in states worth 69 electoral votes:

So check your registration, make your voting plan at IWillVote.com, and VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!