Hans HODL Profile picture
15 Oct, 13 tweets, 5 min read
Interesting comments from @RaoulGMI on #Bitcoin in 2025. I have a few thoughts of my own, too.

Let's talk about narrative economics. A lot of people think that for #Bitcoin to succeed, the US Dollar has to fail. But that's just a story. A lot can happen along the way, and what about second-order effects?
One plausible outcome is that bearish USD folks latch onto a narrative, which boosts #Bitcoin. But then something changes in the market. Maybe inflation starts to spike and we finally think "wow, we should balance the budget" and then elect a bunch of deficit hawks?
The year is now 2024, and #Bitcoin has gone up in price by an order or two of magnitude. At the same time the monetary base has expanded greatly, and a lot of money has piled into BTC. This is a simple and contrived scenario, but you see the role the narrative played?
I'm not saying the story wasn't true, in fact it ended up partially playing out. But in that scenario USD does survive and #Bitcoin goes up by 10x or 100x over the next four years. Now, we've got options. Now, things are more complex. See?
Here's a quote from the article:

"We’re starting to see family offices in the space. Next is the institutions, the endowments, the pension plans, and within that you’ll find some government"

Yep @DigitalAssets an institution. @krakenfx now has a banking charter.
Banks can now custody crypto.

Even Paul Tudor Jones is in the game now.

Oh, and a tiny company called Renaissance Technologies. The most successful hedge fund ever.

What about endowments and pensions? Well, we've got Morgan Creek already in the game. This is from last year.

In regards to governments I think this is already happening. Look at North Korea. Were these just criminals or were they working for the big cheese?

Here's another one, right out in the open. Russia plans to mine 20% of all the #Bitcoin .

We may be closer than we think to the greatest tipping point of our generation. HODL on my friends.

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More from @hansthered

17 Oct
This is the best article I've read in... I don't know how long. But I understand your time is limited so here are the CliffNotes. And of course, we're talking #Bitcoin, Federal Reserve and @JeffSnider_AIP (plus bonus content at the end).

Source: realclearmarkets.com/articles/2020/…
Jeff Snider (Head of Global Research at Alhambra Partners.) is the world's leading expert on the Fed (imho). He's been on the @MacroVoices, published a series called Eurodollar University and a show on YouTube called "Making Sense."

In this article he argues that "Decentralized Money Is the Future." Going back to the invention of the printing press, it was decentralizing knowledge in an accurate way that created a tidal wave of change across the world, long before the information superhighway.
Read 18 tweets
5 Oct
Why is #Bitcoin the future? Let me paint a picture for you.

The national debt is not only growing at an alarming rate, it's growing faster than GDP.
Taken by itself, we might be ok if we didn't have the "twin deficit" problem.
The USA is also suffering from what's called the Triffin's Dilema. We have to supply dollars to the rest of the world, or else wee will suffocate the global economy.
Read 17 tweets
24 Sep
The number of #Bitcoin active addresses per day has been growing steadily since the bottom of the market in 2018. Here you can see the 90d moving average. The floor is slowly being raised.

H/T @coinmetrics Image
In order to put this into perspective, consider this chart in linear scale. It should be apparent that if this trend continues this figure will surpass the ATH very soon. Image
If you're wondering why this matters, consider that the value of Bitcoin is derived (at a high level) from the network. The larger the network, the more useful and valuable Bitcoin becomes. Sprinkle on some QE infinity, and wait for the fireworks.

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL Image
Read 4 tweets
17 Sep
Be careful about assuming that the long-term impact of Covid-19 will be minimal (v-shaped recovery). We've never had so many dislocated workers. Even now the figures are greater than any other point in history. Image
Why isn't there blood in the streets? Well if you can't make your house payment then why not just punt the payments out six months? Still in trouble? How about another six months? Kicking the can has to end at some point. It's all a house of cards.
It should be obvious that digital currencies are the future by now. Prepare yourself for whatever comes next with an allocation to #Bitcoin. Image
Read 4 tweets
31 Jul
Does anyone else think the way we're responding to Covid-19 in the USA might actually be worse than the virus itself?
Don't get me wrong, COVID is real and yes we need to respond to the threat it poses. But let's look at what's actually going on. Recently walked to Starbucks for a coffee, wanted to wash my hands - bathroom closed to due to covid. But wait a minute...
When I walked in I touched the door handle, and then I touched a piece of merchandise (a coffee mug) and nobody rushed out to wipe them down with a cleaning solution. Number one recommendation of CDC, wash hands... 🤔🤔
Read 7 tweets
11 Jul
Please take a moment to consider the importance of the Bitcoin Development Fund being run by @HRF and @gladstein, who has become the moral center of the #Bitcoin universe.

Bitcoin is one of the most powerful tools for the protection human rights in this digital age. All money is becoming digital, it's just a question of which digital money will dominate. Will it be a state-controlled, privacy-invading fiat, or Bitcoin?
We must not take Bitcoin for granted. The wolf is always at the door. Bitcoin needs continuous improvement in scalability, privacy, security, and usability to reach mass adoption. If the only sponsors of dev work are large corporations, we will be doing ourselves a disservice.
Read 4 tweets

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