Why is #Bitcoin the future? Let me paint a picture for you.

The national debt is not only growing at an alarming rate, it's growing faster than GDP.
Taken by itself, we might be ok if we didn't have the "twin deficit" problem.
The USA is also suffering from what's called the Triffin's Dilema. We have to supply dollars to the rest of the world, or else wee will suffocate the global economy.
In fact, many experts agree that right now we have a global dollar shortage. This (and the Dollar Milkshake Theory) help to explain why we haven't seen any "real" inflation as of yet.

So what do we do? Simple, money printer go brrr....

"Allowing" the market to crash has become politically impossible for either party.
But we're also nearing the end of a bond market mega cycle.
we live in a digital age, and software is in fact eating the world.
Reserve currencies don't last forever.
Anywhere people can't rely on their existing monetary infrastructure, they're already turning to #Bitcoin
Enter #Bitcoin, a scarce digital bearer asset. Why does the scarcity matter? Scarcity drives humans crazy.
Question: "How can I buy a cup of covfefe when BTC hits $1m per coin?"

Answer: Near infinite divisibility. You can send 1/100,000,000th of a Bitcoin to someone (even less on LN)

Did you know you can buy a fraction of a Bitcoin? True story.
We can't raise interest rates without bankrupting the economy.
We can't trust the federal government to maintain the purchasing power of the US dollar.
Pension funds have unfunded liabilities and are being forced into risk assets.
"Sounds great," you say. "But when should I buy?"

Answer: pretty much any time reserve risk is below the red area, like right now.
"Yeah, but I have LPs and they expect me to actively manage their money to earn my keep. When do I sell?"

Answer: You don't need to sell, but if you insist in thinking short-term, take profits when you see clusters of adjusted binary Bitcoin Days Destroyed.

You're welcome.

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More from @hansthered

24 Sep
The number of #Bitcoin active addresses per day has been growing steadily since the bottom of the market in 2018. Here you can see the 90d moving average. The floor is slowly being raised.

H/T @coinmetrics Image
In order to put this into perspective, consider this chart in linear scale. It should be apparent that if this trend continues this figure will surpass the ATH very soon. Image
If you're wondering why this matters, consider that the value of Bitcoin is derived (at a high level) from the network. The larger the network, the more useful and valuable Bitcoin becomes. Sprinkle on some QE infinity, and wait for the fireworks.

fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL Image
Read 4 tweets
17 Sep
Be careful about assuming that the long-term impact of Covid-19 will be minimal (v-shaped recovery). We've never had so many dislocated workers. Even now the figures are greater than any other point in history. Image
Why isn't there blood in the streets? Well if you can't make your house payment then why not just punt the payments out six months? Still in trouble? How about another six months? Kicking the can has to end at some point. It's all a house of cards.
It should be obvious that digital currencies are the future by now. Prepare yourself for whatever comes next with an allocation to #Bitcoin. Image
Read 4 tweets
31 Jul
Does anyone else think the way we're responding to Covid-19 in the USA might actually be worse than the virus itself?
Don't get me wrong, COVID is real and yes we need to respond to the threat it poses. But let's look at what's actually going on. Recently walked to Starbucks for a coffee, wanted to wash my hands - bathroom closed to due to covid. But wait a minute...
When I walked in I touched the door handle, and then I touched a piece of merchandise (a coffee mug) and nobody rushed out to wipe them down with a cleaning solution. Number one recommendation of CDC, wash hands... 🤔🤔
Read 7 tweets
11 Jul
Please take a moment to consider the importance of the Bitcoin Development Fund being run by @HRF and @gladstein, who has become the moral center of the #Bitcoin universe.

Bitcoin is one of the most powerful tools for the protection human rights in this digital age. All money is becoming digital, it's just a question of which digital money will dominate. Will it be a state-controlled, privacy-invading fiat, or Bitcoin?
We must not take Bitcoin for granted. The wolf is always at the door. Bitcoin needs continuous improvement in scalability, privacy, security, and usability to reach mass adoption. If the only sponsors of dev work are large corporations, we will be doing ourselves a disservice.
Read 4 tweets
2 Jun
In case you missed it, I published "Whales and Retail" as part of the Kana and Katana monthly update. This novel approach suggests that whales are more likely to be trend following, while retailers tend to be value investors.

The approach uses network data and exchange flows to segment different market participants into "whales" and "retailers." Using Wyckoff we can make some guesses about how these two groups attempt to make the best of each other. Image
Another interesting observation is that market bottoms tend to happen near the "bottoming signature" which is what happens when both whales and retail accumulate #bitcoin at the same time, causing a supply shortage on exchanges where price discovery happens.
Read 4 tweets
27 Mar
Right now the world is changing so quickly, that it's becoming nearly impossible to keep up. I have a theory as to why, but first let's look at some charts with data from @JeffSnider_AIP @100trillionUSD @nic__carter @stlouisfed and @lisaabramowicz1 (@business).
First things first - we were not in a great place before this pandemic. This is true in the USA and globally. Here we see that GDP in Europe has been in decline since 2017.

Source: macrovoices.com/guest-content/…
Over the last 10 years, the rate of GDP growth in China has fallen by 50%.

Source: tradingeconomics.com/china/gdp-grow…
Read 21 tweets

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