I'm sorry people, but I just don't buy into the common myth that there is this great group of people out there that change their minds constantly from day to day and week to week. This is the single biggest reason I don't trust polls.
It has been my life experience that when someone changes their mind on politicians, it's a one and done sort of thing. They don't go: "I like him, I hate him, I like him, I hate him." There are undecideds out there and I get that but
...many don't decide until something major changes their mind. They, like the decided voters, don't change their minds every day. They are undecided and then they are decided. They don't waffle between the two.
Then you have the 3-5% of people that have no opinion on anything, never had an opinion on anything, and will never have an opinion on anything. Those will wait until the last minute and follow the herd so they have bragging rights and appear to be one of the "winners"
So, when I see the same poll, done by the same company, using the same methodology move up and down and sideways from day to day and week to week like some horse race where people are changing their minds as often as they change their underwear, I just can't accept that result.
Polls should give, if they are correct, a pretty constant result because the underlying population doesn't change their minds that often. You don't have a great group of people morph from dem to republican over night or from rep to dem. To change ones political beliefs usually
requires a major event that calls you into a "questioning your faith" moment or a long drawn out series of events that point you to accept your beliefs aren't working and need to change to adjust to the reality you are seeing.
A good example of this can be seen in history as the black population took decades to go from GOP voters to democrat voters. The process began under FDR's new deal and a great depression. It kept going as the group saw one political party as better for them.
It may be in the process of changing again as the dem party has failed a large section of that group and Trump's policies have helped a large section but it will take years, decades to change the entire group or even 50% of them unless something major happens to hasten the change
I don't think campaigns are a horse race because people aren't that flighty IMO. Therefore, a better explanation for me are that the polls are crap the majority of the time & are made to look like they move as they get closer to the election because the pollster finally
...has to tell the truth of the underlying population so they can say, "look the polls are right ,"after the election. Then they go back to playing games for the next 364 days of the year.
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