I'm sorry people, but I just don't buy into the common myth that there is this great group of people out there that change their minds constantly from day to day and week to week. This is the single biggest reason I don't trust polls.
It has been my life experience that when someone changes their mind on politicians, it's a one and done sort of thing. They don't go: "I like him, I hate him, I like him, I hate him." There are undecideds out there and I get that but
...many don't decide until something major changes their mind. They, like the decided voters, don't change their minds every day. They are undecided and then they are decided. They don't waffle between the two.
Then you have the 3-5% of people that have no opinion on anything, never had an opinion on anything, and will never have an opinion on anything. Those will wait until the last minute and follow the herd so they have bragging rights and appear to be one of the "winners"
So, when I see the same poll, done by the same company, using the same methodology move up and down and sideways from day to day and week to week like some horse race where people are changing their minds as often as they change their underwear, I just can't accept that result.
Polls should give, if they are correct, a pretty constant result because the underlying population doesn't change their minds that often. You don't have a great group of people morph from dem to republican over night or from rep to dem. To change ones political beliefs usually
requires a major event that calls you into a "questioning your faith" moment or a long drawn out series of events that point you to accept your beliefs aren't working and need to change to adjust to the reality you are seeing.
A good example of this can be seen in history as the black population took decades to go from GOP voters to democrat voters. The process began under FDR's new deal and a great depression. It kept going as the group saw one political party as better for them.
It may be in the process of changing again as the dem party has failed a large section of that group and Trump's policies have helped a large section but it will take years, decades to change the entire group or even 50% of them unless something major happens to hasten the change
I don't think campaigns are a horse race because people aren't that flighty IMO. Therefore, a better explanation for me are that the polls are crap the majority of the time & are made to look like they move as they get closer to the election because the pollster finally
...has to tell the truth of the underlying population so they can say, "look the polls are right ,"after the election. Then they go back to playing games for the next 364 days of the year.

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More from @unseen1_unseen

17 Oct
In life, you often find yourself having to pick between the lesser of two evils. I can understand after 4 years of the two minutes of hate campaign run by the democrat media complex where some might not want to vote for Trump even though his polices have benefited you more than
..any other President in recent money. I understand how after listening to the fake media brainwash u into thinking orange man is bad or he sends "mean" tweets u might be hesitant to pull the lever for the man that ended ISIS and made Islamic terrorism a topic no longer
..discussed nightly around the table nightly. I get it. The 2 min hate campaign by the left wing media for the last 4 yrs has been powerful. You might dislike President Trump's tone, due to the intense brainwashing, to the point u forget Trump cut your taxes and brought about a
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17 Oct
People get hung up on names. The left uses it to their advantage by constantly changing their name when their polices fail. They then pretend they aren't that group that just caused mass death & poverty. So, call them what you want. Leftists don't change their spots. You can call
...them Marxists, communists, socialists, progressives, liberals, democrats, socialist democrats, open society members, globalists, national socialists, post modernists, Antifa, anarchist, left winger, radical, Bolsheviks. It really doesn't matter what you call the left
....because as soon as their polices fail again and cause untold death and misery they will change their name and attempt to hoodwink the people to give them one more chance because you know that wasn't "real socialism"
Read 4 tweets
17 Oct
Every wonder why the democrats and left wing media have had such a hard time "taking Trump out? Let's look at their playbook and find out:

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Trump doesn't care about their power, real or fake.
All the other Gopers were afraid of the media's power. Trump took them on. They were afraid of Pelosi. Trump calls her a 3rd rate politician. Same goes for special interests like the immigration/refugee lobbies. Trump sees they are powerless or that his power is equal/greater.
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Because Trump is so much smarter than his enemies he causes them to counterattack outside the expertise of their people. Which means their base can't follow along. See the stupid impeachment failure. It was so far outside
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16 Oct
NBC has hit every democrat talking point. This is like a debate except it's only 1:1 instead of 2:1
Trump is doing a great job. NBC outclassed.
NBC has an hard-on for masks
Read 9 tweets
15 Oct
Lt. Dan Forest beat Gov Cooper in the debate last night, badly. Gov Cooper sounded like a West Coast Liberal. He won't open the state. He won't allow kids to go to school. He can't get laid off workers unemployment benefits or hurricane victims funds. Cooper is a failure as Gov.
Gov Cooper thinks a face mask is a magical device that will protect us all from Covid while he keeps the state in lockdown for political purposes. He has no plan. He walks with the rioters and allowed many NC cities to be damaged and looted during the "peaceful protests"
Listening to Gov Cooper tonight, I thought I was listening to Schumer or Pelosi. Cooper mouthed the same talking points as the rest of the left wing of the Dem party. He wants zero carbon emissions and has set NC on the same pathway as CA for brown and black outs.
Read 12 tweets

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