I spent a lot of time this past week talking to upper echelon of @realDonaldTrump’s team in Florida.
1. They’re buoyed by the data they see; they’re looking at models from three sources and they say numbers are encouraging.
2. There is enormous relief within Trump Florida team that the principal is back on the campaign trail. They say this is their number one advantage. They say their is a direct link with a Trump swing through Florida and poll movements.
Top concerns for Trump Florida team are: ‘The president has made our job very difficult’ because of how he’s changed Florida GOP voter behavior re voting by mail. Even if the GOP catches up, every day brings more stories about Dems early lead.
.@realDonaldTrump team in Florida very worried that steady drumbeat of negative early vote stories PLUS the weight of really bad nat’l poll stories will suppress some of their vote. ‘No one wants to enter the game in the last minute with the team down two touchdowns.’
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@realDonaldTrump What you should understand is that Pinellas' population and demographics are extrordinarily stable, esp. when compared to other counties in Florida.
The voters who voted in 2016 are the people who are being polled now.
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@realDonaldTrump Pinellas is as bipartisan as it gets: A GOP U.S. Rep in the northern part of the county, a Democrat in the south part. GOP slightly dominates legislative delegation, but biggest city is led by a Democrat. County Commission is 4-3 Democrat, but countywide officials are Republican.
Florida Democrats hold a considrable advantage over @FloridaGOP through the first phase of voting in Florida (voting-by-mail but no in-person early voting).
@FloridaGOP 79% of Florida Republicans who voted in all of the previous four elections have yet to cast a ballot.
Democrats have 65.3% of their 4/4 voters.
This represents a 474,484 voter advantage for Republicans.
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@FloridaGOP Among voters who voted in three of the past four elections, Republicans have 87% yet to vote while Democrats have 73.9% of their 3/4’s remaining.
This represents a 70,643 voter advantage for Republicans.
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I feel like if I don't get this all out there now, I might get scooped again, as I was here that @GovRonDeSantis administration is likely to rescind ALL of Rick Scott's last minute, Senate-confirmable appointments.
The bad blood (and that's a bit of an overstatement) between the outgoing and incoming governor began post-election when it was clear that Rick Scott was headed to a recount (of some sort) and Ron DeSantis wasn't.
Up until that point Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis were on friendly terms. Not best buds, but certainly more amicable to each other than they are now.
But Scott did not like facing a recount and really did not like that DeSantis was pivoting to transition.