To me, this is one of the most interesting singular pieces of data about the presidential race in Florida.

@RealDonaldTrump, perhaps surprisingly, won purplish Pinellas by 1% in 2016, so this represents a FOURTEEN POINT swing away from him.
@realDonaldTrump What you should understand is that Pinellas' population and demographics are extrordinarily stable, esp. when compared to other counties in Florida.

The voters who voted in 2016 are the people who are being polled now.

@realDonaldTrump Pinellas is as bipartisan as it gets: A GOP U.S. Rep in the northern part of the county, a Democrat in the south part. GOP slightly dominates legislative delegation, but biggest city is led by a Democrat. County Commission is 4-3 Democrat, but countywide officials are Republican.
@realDonaldTrump Pinellas - and St. Pete - in particular have responded to the pandemic as smartly as any local gov’ts have.

Ordinances and lots of social pressure to wear masks. But we also opened our beaches on Memorial Day Weekend.

School sup’t Mike Grego is widely respected.
@realDonaldTrump Pinellas, as many know, is also home to so many nursing homes, LTC facilities, ALFs. If the #coronavirus had raged here, it would have meant a lot of deaths.

So, by and large, Pinellas residents have taken pandemic very serious.
@realDonaldTrump I have to point out this is a media-savvy, if not saturdated market. Beloved newspaper (@TB_Times), a strong alt-weekly, lots of blogs, local sites, &, of course, a competitive, strong TV news market, incl. a 24-hour news channel (@BN9).

Folks had access to LOTS of information.
@realDonaldTrump @TB_Times @BN9 To wit: it is @RealDonaldTrump’s response to the pandemic that is driving his poor numbers in Pinellas County, a community that took it as serious as any in Florida.

The deficit Trump is seeing w/ older White voters throughout Florida is acutely true in older White Pinellas.

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More from @PeterSchorschFL

18 Oct
Florida Democrats hold a considrable advantage over @FloridaGOP through the first phase of voting in Florida (voting-by-mail but no in-person early voting).

BUT — and this is a big but and I cannot lie...
@FloridaGOP 79% of Florida Republicans who voted in all of the previous four elections have yet to cast a ballot.

Democrats have 65.3% of their 4/4 voters.

This represents a 474,484 voter advantage for Republicans.

@FloridaGOP Among voters who voted in three of the past four elections, Republicans have 87% yet to vote while Democrats have 73.9% of their 3/4’s remaining.

This represents a 70,643 voter advantage for Republicans.

Read 4 tweets
16 Oct
To be clear, this is not the sentiment - yet - with Trump’s team in Florida.

There is almost a separate track effort to win Florida no matter what the national polls show.
I spent a lot of time this past week talking to upper echelon of @realDonaldTrump’s team in Florida.

1. They’re buoyed by the data they see; they’re looking at models from three sources and they say numbers are encouraging.
2. There is enormous relief within Trump Florida team that the principal is back on the campaign trail. They say this is their number one advantage. They say their is a direct link with a Trump swing through Florida and poll movements.
Read 5 tweets
30 Aug
The numbers in FL CD 13 are why I believe, at this stage, @JoeBiden is in much better shape in Florida than @HillaryClinton in 2016.

@StPetePolls has it:

Biden 54%, @RealDonaldTrump 40%.

@JoeBiden @HillaryClinton @StPetePolls @realDonaldTrump You can argue all you want about which polling shops get numbers right, but we (@Fla_Pol & @StPetePolls) understand one district, it’s CD 13.

It’s why we nailed @DavidJollyFL winninng to the tenth of a percent in 2015-16 and why we got the @realAnnaPaulina upset right.

@JoeBiden @HillaryClinton @StPetePolls @realDonaldTrump @Fla_Pol @DavidJollyFL @realannapaulina So, if @StPetePolls has @JoeBiden up 14 in CD 13 right now, he’s up at least 10+ in CD 13 right now.

Why is that good news for Biden?

@HillaryClinton won CD 13 by just four points.

Read 6 tweets
9 Jan 19
I feel like if I don't get this all out there now, I might get scooped again, as I was here that @GovRonDeSantis administration is likely to rescind ALL of Rick Scott's last minute, Senate-confirmable appointments.
The bad blood (and that's a bit of an overstatement) between the outgoing and incoming governor began post-election when it was clear that Rick Scott was headed to a recount (of some sort) and Ron DeSantis wasn't.
Up until that point Rick Scott and Ron DeSantis were on friendly terms. Not best buds, but certainly more amicable to each other than they are now.

But Scott did not like facing a recount and really did not like that DeSantis was pivoting to transition.
Read 9 tweets

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