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Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
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17 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Breaking: Coronavirus Update

US yesterday 63,610, highest in two months. 8 states reported new highs yesterday, including OH, WI, ID, UT, CO, MT, NM, ND. The trend of hospitalizations, ICU patients, and daily tolls all bending up.
Today is the second day in a row US is reporting more daily infections than India, as highest globally. Total cases also exceed 8M. It took 21 days from 7M to 8M, faster than previous two marks.
15 European countries reported highest daily cases since the beginning of the pandemic, including some hard-hit countries during the first wave like Germany. Germany yesterday 7,620; daily average triples in the past two weeks.
Japan yesterday 708, highest in weeks. Tokyo 284, highest since Aug. 20. Singapore sees 9 new cases today, the fifth day in a row to have less than 10 new cases.

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More from @yaneerbaryam

Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
18 Oct
Communities taking responsibility is the solution:

COVID cases were skyrocketing in this Israeli desert town. Then the mayor intervened

haaretz.com/israel-news/.p…

1/
In mid-September, when the list of coronavirus hot spots in Israel seemed to be growing by the hour, one small desert town managed to buck the trend.

2/
Over a period of two weeks, the number of active cases among the roughly 11,000 residents of Yeruham had dropped by more than half: from 100 to just over 40. This sudden drop was duly noted by other municipalities in Israel, eager to learn from Yeruham's example.

3/
Read 14 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
17 Oct
Breaking: Coronavirus Update

US yesterday 69,159, the sixth highest day only below the peak days in late July. 9 states reported new highs yesterday. The vast majority of states are reporting more than last week. ImageImage
Venezuela yesterday 289, lowest since mid-July. Daily death toll also dropped to lowest level since August, to a level of about 5 deaths per day. Image
16 European countries reported new highs for daily cases. Italy 10,009, first time ever exceeding 10k daily cases. Lombardia saw precipitous rise, daily average x8 in just two weeks. ImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
15 Oct
Breaking: Coronavirus Update

US yesterday 59,494, highest in two months. OH, MO, NM, and ND new highs. National daily average reaches 50k, while the daily infections average of India (currently the highest country) dropped to 79k to 63k in the last two weeks. ImageImageImage
Jordan saw a new high of 2,423 yesterday, along with the highest daily death toll of 32, more than one eighth of its total toll since the pandemic. ImageImage
16 European countries reported all-time highs yesterday, including some that were hit hard during the first wave. Italy yesterday reported 7,332, surpassing the peak in first wave. Lombardia, Campania, and Piemonte are the current epicenters. ImageImageImage
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
13 Oct
Super important message

Cuomo says COVID-19 hot spots in New York could see "more restrictions" cbsnews.com/news/covid-hot…

1/
"This was not really about government action ... it was really about getting people to understand the problem so that the people actually agreed to take these actions to protect themselves."
"I said to the people, basically, 'This is Andrew. My mother's Matilda. These are my daughters. This is my situation. My situation is like your situation. I'm in the same place that you are in...And I'm afraid for my family. So let's work this through together.'"
Read 4 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
13 Oct
We are already paying the price of the perpetual soft lockdown, and opening and closing the economy, because we can’t open up without causing so many cases that we have to shut down again anyway.

1/
Let’s be clear: Without a strong lockdown we can’t reverse the increases that happen when we try to open up.

2/
If we are determined to get to zero we can then open up. COVID free Green zone by green zone, it doesn’t take very long when the effort is in the right direction.

3/
Read 10 tweets
Yaneer Bar-Yam Profile picture
12 Oct
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is analyzing damage due to COVID and projecting further severe consequences if current policies persist. They state “despite involving short term economic costs, lockdowns may lead to faster economic recovery by containing the virus”

1/
Note: This report doesn’t do a dynamic analysis that makes things much clearer, but it does a thoughtful statistical analysis based upon increasingly available data.

imf.org/en/Publication…

A few more quotes:

2/
“The analysis also finds that lockdowns are powerful instruments to reduce infections, especially when they are introduced early in a country’s epidemic and when they are sufficiently stringent.”

3/
Read 13 tweets

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