The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is analyzing damage due to COVID and projecting further severe consequences if current policies persist. They state “despite involving short term economic costs, lockdowns may lead to faster economic recovery by containing the virus”
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Note: This report doesn’t do a dynamic analysis that makes things much clearer, but it does a thoughtful statistical analysis based upon increasingly available data.
“The analysis also finds that lockdowns are powerful instruments to reduce infections, especially when they are introduced early in a country’s epidemic and when they are sufficiently stringent.”
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“lockdowns become progressively more effective in reducing COVID-19 cases when they become sufficiently stringent. Mild lockdowns appear instead ineffective at curbing infections.”
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“The results suggest that to achieve a given reduction in infections, policymakers may want to opt for stringent lockdowns over a shorter period rather than prolonged mild lockdowns...
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..Based upon past experience, tighter lockdowns appear indeed to entail only modest additional costs while leading to a considerably stronger decline in infections.”
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“The analysis also suggests that lockdowns must be sufficiently stringent to reduce infections significantly.”
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“The effectiveness of lockdowns in reducing infections suggests that lockdowns may pave the way to a faster economic recovery if they succeed in containing the epidemic and thus limit the extent of voluntary social distancing...
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..Therefore the short-term economic costs of lockdowns could be compensated by stronger medium-term growth, possibly leading to positive overall effects on the economy.”
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“These findings suggest that economies will continue to operate below potential while health risks persist, even if lockdowns are lifted.”
“Therefore, policymakers should refrain from withdrawing policy support too quickly and preserve spending on social safety nets.”
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“The prevailing narrative often portrays lockdowns as involving a tradeoff between saving lives and supporting the economy. This characterization neglects the point that, despite involving short term economic costs, lockdowns may lead to faster economic recovery..
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by containing the virus and reducing voluntary social distancing. These medium term gains may offset the the short-term costs of lockdowns, possibly leading to positive overall effects on the economy.”
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Dynamic analysis:
"The elimination strategy requires a greater upfront cost, since R<1 is maintained for a longer duration, but requires lower costs thereafter since economic activity in the country can largely return to normal..."
"This was not really about government action ... it was really about getting people to understand the problem so that the people actually agreed to take these actions to protect themselves."
"I said to the people, basically, 'This is Andrew. My mother's Matilda. These are my daughters. This is my situation. My situation is like your situation. I'm in the same place that you are in...And I'm afraid for my family. So let's work this through together.'"
We are already paying the price of the perpetual soft lockdown, and opening and closing the economy, because we can’t open up without causing so many cases that we have to shut down again anyway.
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Let’s be clear: Without a strong lockdown we can’t reverse the increases that happen when we try to open up.
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If we are determined to get to zero we can then open up. COVID free Green zone by green zone, it doesn’t take very long when the effort is in the right direction.
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This figure is super important, showing the way different policies lead to different amounts of time till the goal is achieved. A bit more effort makes all the difference.
US yesterday 57,420, highest since mid-August. Canada yesterday 2,895, a new record for daily infections. Quebec, Ontario, Alberta all on the rise and surpassed their first peaks back in April.
Total cases in India surpass 7 million today, closing in on the US. In the meanwhile, India's daily infections have been declining for 4 weeks, now at 72k.
Russia yesterday 11,969, surpassing its peak back in May and set new record. The average daily death toll also surpassed the peak of first wave.
Proven by evidence: Evidence based science is like standing on a train track facing east saying: I won’t turn around until you prove to me there is a train coming from the west.
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Examples:
1) Not testing for COVID in places that didn’t previously have known cases of COVID.
2) Treating COVID like flu until hospitals are overwhelmed.