We are already paying the price of the perpetual soft lockdown, and opening and closing the economy, because we can’t open up without causing so many cases that we have to shut down again anyway.

1/
Let’s be clear: Without a strong lockdown we can’t reverse the increases that happen when we try to open up.

2/
If we are determined to get to zero we can then open up. COVID free Green zone by green zone, it doesn’t take very long when the effort is in the right direction.

3/
See New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Taiwan, South Korea, China. Dictatorships, democracies, small countries, big countries, islands and main. They had outbreaks but they defeated them quickly and got back to normal.

4/
Many other countries were just there a few months ago and stopped before victory. Don’t leave a fire partly put out. Put it out completely.

5/
Will we have to fight another outbreak sometime? Perhaps, but we will have the most normal existence possible until then, and after then.

6/
And with compassion for our neighbors, we can help each other past the hard times. Locally and globally.

7/
It’s not that hard. If there is a will there is a way. The sooner the better.

8/
Pass the word: Instead of thinking about the difficulty of the lockdown, think past the lockdown to the joyous normal life that will follow. As with other successful countries, what will ultimately matter is aiming for a clear goal of getting to zero.

9/
Lockdown or not lockdown: To be or not to be...

10/

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More from @yaneerbaryam

13 Oct
Super important message

Cuomo says COVID-19 hot spots in New York could see "more restrictions" cbsnews.com/news/covid-hot…

1/
"This was not really about government action ... it was really about getting people to understand the problem so that the people actually agreed to take these actions to protect themselves."
"I said to the people, basically, 'This is Andrew. My mother's Matilda. These are my daughters. This is my situation. My situation is like your situation. I'm in the same place that you are in...And I'm afraid for my family. So let's work this through together.'"
Read 4 tweets
12 Oct
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is analyzing damage due to COVID and projecting further severe consequences if current policies persist. They state “despite involving short term economic costs, lockdowns may lead to faster economic recovery by containing the virus”

1/
Note: This report doesn’t do a dynamic analysis that makes things much clearer, but it does a thoughtful statistical analysis based upon increasingly available data.

imf.org/en/Publication…

A few more quotes:

2/
“The analysis also finds that lockdowns are powerful instruments to reduce infections, especially when they are introduced early in a country’s epidemic and when they are sufficiently stringent.”

3/
Read 13 tweets
11 Oct
Red Team in the Netherlands lays it out perfectly

"Will we celebrate New Year's together?"

1/

(Use translate click)
This figure is super important, showing the way different policies lead to different amounts of time till the goal is achieved. A bit more effort makes all the difference.

They recommend to aim for R=0.7 -- achievable and effective.

(note: R=0.5 is also possible)

Read 6 tweets
11 Oct
Breaking: Coronavirus Update

US yesterday 57,420, highest since mid-August. Canada yesterday 2,895, a new record for daily infections. Quebec, Ontario, Alberta all on the rise and surpassed their first peaks back in April.
Total cases in India surpass 7 million today, closing in on the US. In the meanwhile, India's daily infections have been declining for 4 weeks, now at 72k.
Russia yesterday 11,969, surpassing its peak back in May and set new record. The average daily death toll also surpassed the peak of first wave.
Read 4 tweets
10 Oct
Proven by evidence: Evidence based science is like standing on a train track facing east saying: I won’t turn around until you prove to me there is a train coming from the west.

1/
Examples:

1) Not testing for COVID in places that didn’t previously have known cases of COVID.
2) Treating COVID like flu until hospitals are overwhelmed.
Read 9 tweets
10 Oct
Rowing 1 mile up the river, while flow is 1 mile per hour downstream.

If your rowing speed is 1.1 mi/hr how long does it take and how far did you really row?

If your rowing speed is 2 mi/hr how long does it take and how far did you really row?

(Solution will follow shortly)
Answer:

1 mile relative to land
11 miles of rowing for 1.1 mi/hr
2 miles of rowing for 2 mi/hr
Calculation in next tweets.

Strong action saves time and effort.
Case 1: For Rowing speed 1.1 mi/hr

Speed relative to land is rowing speed relative to water plus water speed (which is negative = - 1 mi/hr)

Speed relative to land = 1.1 mi/hr - 1 mi/hr = 0.1 mi/hr.

Total time is 1 mile / (0.1 mi/hr) = 10 hr

..
Read 5 tweets

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