Ok, here's is my 1st, "Let me fix that message for you."

It's for the @ossoff campaign- whose effort down in GA Senate could very well be the Dem's 4th seat- their majority maker, which I think is something they might want to highlight on their digitals to Dem coalition voters.
2. What is going on in this @ossoff ad? First, and foremost it is fixing the main mistake that the original ad makes. It is nationalizing the race/pitch by tying in Trump and McConnell and that stirs up those fab negative partisanship emotions in the target & in my theory
3. would make them more like to pony up money bc now they realize the "stakes" of the race are higher than one random senate race about some dude they'd never heard about. Esp if they happen to be a younger voter or a voter of color- bc yawn, its a boring white dude (Ossof isn't
4. actually boring, but he LOOKS boring, so you have to already know he isn't boring to know he isn't boring or you have to get interested enough in the ad to go check him out & then you'll realize, "hey, that dude has some balls!" THAT's the moment, at this point especially, you
5. really want to create. Its hard but guess what?! Out there, in the real world, many millions of people are just now, finally and for the first time realizing there's an election happening because they are not freaks like us. So they don't watch news and don't do political
6. which is, BTW one of the smaller versions or worlds of twitter, entertainment twitter is WAAYYY bigger than political twitter. So you want to catch these people's attention. You want to convey why this thing "the senate" matters. That's why the GOP has used "nationalized"
7. mailers for a very long time, & to great effect. I mean, if 2018 is any testament bc without any natural reason for a large negative partisanship surge, they had one and I believe it is from the negative partisanship nature of their electioneering efforts (plus their god-awful
8. conservative media eco-system. Dems are now trying to ensure massive turnout among the lower turnout elements of their coalition: younger voters and voters of color. These voters will have much higher turnout than 2016 no matter what bc of Trump being in office & the neg
9. partisanship effect- so it IS going up. We are watching that prediction, once again, come to fruition in real-time in the form of early voting lines (which are, of course, also a product of voter suppression). But just bc they go up naturally doesn't mean they should be left
10. that way. Oh hell no! The persuasion band expanded this cycle (and as far as I know it is from a greater % of pure Indies breaking in favor of Biden & Ds than might have otherwise bc of COVID mismanagement, so say 60%- 40% rather than 55%-45% like I originally anticipated and
11. NOT bc right-leaning Rs are deserting the Rep Party but I am trying to get access to large N data that would allow me to look at this Q by separating out Indie leaners and pure Is to see if R leaners are below 90% maybe 88% of Trump support. That is where they have stood the
12. entire cycle & the last time I had access to large n, high-quality data to run analysis (ended on July 1). So I would like to know if any of the fall campaign events affected R leaners. But the persuasion effort is only 1 part of a campaign. THAT is what my research argues
13. when it is not intentionally being misrepresented & delegitimized over personal grudges by small men w large egos. The other half of the modern campaign- campaigns run in a hyperpartisan, polarized environment involve trying to equalize the partisan turnout of your opponent
14. bc when you don't as, as Ds didn't in the CA 25 Special Election this spring- you get your ass kicked. And bc that election took place in a state w party reg & in a system voting under a total vote by mail system due to a pandemic- the whole of the election analysis world
15. watched that election play out in real-time. Watched as the GOP dominated the ballot return game. Watched as the Dems failed to ever catch up- even on Election Day voting. And thus, at the end of the day, when GOP candidate Mike Garcia, who was a good candidate who "fit the
16. district" bc he was Latino vet and Christy Smith was rumored to be a lackluster nominee (mostly she was an average person trying to fill above-average @KatieHill4CA's shoes) no one was confused as to HOW Garcia won. Republicans outperformed Democrats on turnout in that
17. election by 14pts. In fact, composition of the electorate-wise, it could be said that in the special election CA 25 reverted back to its 2014 form from its 2018 form. Independent turnout and Dem turnout collapsed as turnout from younger voters, Latino voters, and Black voters
18. declined sharply. No surprise- an electorate w a massively Republican Party advantage in it....elected a Republican & in-so-doing, hopefully, remind Democrats that the only thing protected their House majority is demographics: keep them friendly- stay in power. Let them
19. revert back to 2010 and 2014 & Happy Days will be coming back to the Republican Party, even IF it's embracing racism, and extremism, and authoritarianism. hence, my "fierce urgency" for electioneering reform NOW. newrepublic.com/article/156402…

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More from @RachelBitecofer

17 Oct
1. Oh boy! BC let me tell you an interesting (but kind of depressing) fun fact about unmarried women.

Unmarried women are disproportionately Dems

It becomes depressing bc, once women get married, they become more Rep

Why? They adopt their husband's party.

Yes. STILL. In 2020
2. BUT the good news is all that "activist judging" the GOP's Federalist Society revolution was designed to come take over the federal courts- ESP the Court of Last Resort, the Supreme Court, the reverse, made women (almost) legally equal to men. They were nowhere CLOSE to that
3. even well into the 80s!! Yes, that's right ladies. Here's a fun fact you need to go to grad school, climb the corporate ladder, work in a male-dominated industry like construction (or election twitter), or try to diversify a 75% male Congress to learn: Sexism is still an issue
Read 8 tweets
15 Oct
The only message that would work w Reps & right-leaning Indies to get them to vote against Trump are ones that appeal to their own self-interest. That's why the '16 ads failed.

You have to make Rs fear for themselves- NOT the greater good.
I know that's hard to hear, but that's the truth. Liberals always want to make ads that speak to themselves. If policy mattered to non-voters, they'd be voters. If Rs cared about others- they'd be liberals.
To be clear-Rs care about (known) or same- tribe others. Just not other, others.
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
1. Had a few of you ask me to respond to @Edsall's well-written & thought out column on less thought of aspects of the status of the election- here if you haven't read it. 1st- I want to remind you long-termers- for months, years, I've been talking about nytimes.com/2020/10/14/opi…
2. @parscale's strategy, his ONLY strategy since persuasion of Indies w Trump as your candidate is not an option, has been to hunt down, via social media, non-political white, working-class (men primarily) who share interests (hunting, Nascar, etc) w their voting WWC men but who
3. hadn't previously been voting- get them to register & then get them to turn out to vote. So this registration phenomenon in PA, WI, MI, etc, this is just that- coming to fruition. And if anything, these numbers are smaller than I feared they might reach though what makes them
Read 20 tweets
14 Oct
1. Anyone w meme-making/graphic skills & time for a "do a solid for democracy" should take the linked list in @marceelias's tweet below and make a meme that lists the process for each state's "notification" process on "rejected" ballots.

Or you could do just 1 for your state.
2. You could take this list, figure out how ballots get rejected and join a local org working to mitigate ballot rejection OR helping to inform voters they've been rejected.

This is a BIG problem for Ds & another reason I personally urge in-person voting as much as possible.
3. As you go through this list, you'll see the many error points that can cause rejection and data suggests that 1st time voters absentee/mail voters are MUCH more likely to have their votes disqualified. Between this, and Bill Barr's pre-announced strategy to try to prevent mail
Read 12 tweets
14 Oct
Yeah! My "define originalism" suggestion got through!
Not hard at all @ChrisCoons that's exactly what Alabama, Mississippi, etc plan to do- pass state laws to challenge the right to privacy. Maybe not on contraceptives, but the doctrine of right to privacy
Correct @ChrisCoonsforDE - the right to privacy is what they want to come after bc it is what they mean when they talk about "judicial activism" or "legislating from the bench." So yes, post confirmation, on the future docket, the goal will be to organize, via ALEC, to start
Read 5 tweets
13 Oct
1. Senate GOPers want you to believe that Dems don't support religious nominees and/or take issue w the fact they are people of faith. Virtually every Dem is religious, (& overwhelmingly, Christain, just like the Reps). In the case of A.C.B.- the concerns are how religion impacts
2. here decision-making. This has ALWAYS been a concern, and sadly, especially for Catholics. It was a BIG DEAL when Kennedy became the 1st non-WASP elected. But people were concerned he'sd be a tool of the pope! In the case of A.C.B., the concerns are her view on gay marriage &
3. abortion. THAT is what Ds are attacking, but it is a good talking point to frame it as an attack on her Christianity- a common tool in the GOP's messaging toolkit and one the media is ALWAYS willing to take the bite on. Today, in terms of American politics, religious tests &
Read 4 tweets

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