JPR007 Profile picture
17 Oct, 25 tweets, 4 min read

First Hyundai made headlines about its electric cars catching fire

Five days later it was General Motors and Ford Motor

The next day it was BMW Group…
Cars powered by the combustion of gasoline are plenty prone to catching fire.

But the issues affecting some of the world's largest automakers over the past week are both a reflection of plug-in models taking off in the market and a threat to more widespread adoption
The vehicle blazes are making a big impact before automakers have even managed to pin down their precise causes.

A flaw affecting a plug-in hybrid SUV in Europe will keep Ford from complying with tougher emissions standards this year
BMW and Hyundai are recalling tens of thousands of cars, and GM is being probed by U.S. safety regulators.
"What we're seeing with new fires has more to do with the landslide of new EV models and higher sales in the last couple of years -- there are more fires because there are more EVs," said Sam Jaffe, managing director at Cairn Energy Research Advisors, a Boulder-based consultancy
“Automakers are safety engineers first, performance engineers second, so I expect every automaker will react to any fire with tremendous care
While EVs don't invoke the same instinctual distrust as self-driving cars or flying taxis might, they do require a leap of faith for some consumers
A younger, tech-savvier population is one reason why China is the world's biggest EV market, JATO Dynamics said in a report earlier this week, with consumers in Europe and the U.S. more likely to stick with what they know
Around the world, engineers are still tinkering with the complicated chemistry that goes into EV batteries

They are in a global race to make them cheaper, lighter, and more powerful - one that some analysts warn could come at the expense of safety
“Pursuing a higher battery density will normally mean you need to sacrifice safety," said Toliver Ma, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Guotai Junan Securities
“It's long been a problem that hasn't been solved. Battery makers are wanting to put out batteries that have a long driving range, because that's what automakers demand”

Hyundai's problem that started off automakers' recent spate of EV woes involves its Kona model
The Korean automaker is calling back more than 25,000 of the compact SUVs because short circuits caused by a battery cell manufacturing defect could cause fires after they charge

Its supplier LG Chem said the exact cause of the fires hasn't been determined
Four days after South Korea's Land and Transportation Ministry announced the safety campaign, Hyundai said it was reviewing whether the issue warrants a global recall
The next shoe to drop was the announcement by the U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that it is investigating whether GM's Chevrolet Bolt EV is prone to catching fire when parked

GM said it is cooperating with the inquiry and conducting its own probe
Ford's problem involving its Kuga SUV for now appears to be the most consequential of the bunch

The automaker is delaying the U.S. launch of the mechanically similar Escape plug-in hybrid to next year over the risk of recharging fires
The plug-in hybrid version of the Kuga was pivotal to Ford complying with the European Union's tougher limits on CO2 this year

The automaker said it will fall short of complying with the standards and try to pool its fleet with another manufacturer to avoid paying a fine
BMW still expects to hit its CO2 targets this year despite a stop-sale of several plug-in hybrid models in Europe and the U.S.

- the X1, X2, X3 and X5 SUVs

- the 2, 3, 5 and 7 Series cars

and its Mini brand Countryman
BMW is recalling roughly 27,000 vehicles worldwide over risks their batteries can overheat and catch fire

The recent spate of fires follow another round last year in greater China
Nio said in April 2019 that one of its ES8 vehicles caught fire in the northwestern city of Xi'an while being repaired, while a video on Chinese social media platforms showed a Tesla bursting into flames in a Shanghai garage
“Batteries are a dance of optimization between a myriad different design, cost, safety, and performance factors," said Vivas Kumar, a principal consultant at industry adviser Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and previously a member of Tesla's battery supply chain team
“If this trend of recalls due to fires continues it will force automakers to consider an increased emphasis on safety by foregoing progress on some of those other elements”
The heightened sensitivity around battery safety could impact efforts among producers to boost performance as well as the driving range between recharging by using more nickel in place of cobalt, according to Alice Yu, a Beijing-based analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence
The nickel-heavy so-called NCM 811 battery cathode configuration is one of the most popular, adopted first by Panasonic and now mass-produced by Contemporary Amperex Technology CATL, now becoming a supplier to Tesla
It has 80 percent Nickel, 10 percent Cobalt and 10 percent Manganese and has a longer lifespan, allowing cars to travel further on a single charge
"Manufacturers are trying to increase energy density, so having more nickel and less cobalt, that increases the risk of having less thermal stability," Yu said

“Having these incidences will hold back the manufacturers moves to improve energy density, and make them more cautious”

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with JPR007

JPR007 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @jpr007

17 Oct

The first is that Tesla invoices per kWh, when Ionity invoices per minute in France

The second is that the price is always competitive…
Ionity has not been able to meet the needs of its customers through the process of taking on the status of energy distributor, which is required to be able to charge energy as a quantity and not a time-service
The Tesla Supercharge charge has been slightly increased to €0.30 per kWh but this is still very competitive with the Ionity network without a subscription from the consortium's manufacturers
Read 6 tweets
16 Oct

Enterprise Value is a more comprehensive measure of the real value of a company to its various stakeholders than “Market Capitalization” which only reflects the company’s residual value to its Equity Shareholders
These other stakeholders have superior interests in the company’s income, assets and cash flows and they include Debtholders and Employees

Their interests can be added to the market value of the Shares to get a better measure of what the market thinks a company is really worth
In this chart I have used the face value of the Debt and Unfunded Pension Obligations minus Cash to make a quick approximation of the Enterprise Value of these 15 players in the Automobile industry
Read 6 tweets
16 Oct
LG Chem, the world’s top electric vehicle EV battery maker, is in talks with a “couple” of automakers to create joint ventures to produce automotive batteries, Chief Executive Officer Hak Cheol Shin told Reuters on Friday…
“Our joint ventures with Geely and GM have been already announced, and we have ongoing discussions with a couple of other automakers,” he said

The South Korean company currently supplies batteries from its Nanjing China factory for Model 3 vehicles built at Tesla Shanghai plant
“We have started supplying to Tesla in earnest, and this is the beginning of a good partnership and we hope to expand the partnership,” he said

“We are in talks to expand cooperation with almost all automakers, and Tesla is one of them,” he said
Read 5 tweets
15 Oct

These charts have now been updated with the latest information and adjusted for the stock split

1. The context remains the same
2. And the core volume assumptions are unchanged
3. But it has been assumed that proprietary Battery Manufacturing will allow Tesla to maintain a 30% Gross Margin, up from 26% in the Base Case

- this valuation is at a 10x P/E Multiple
Read 6 tweets
15 Oct

These charts have now been updated with the latest information and adjusted for the stock split

1. This is the context
2. These are the Base Case assumptions

- and only relate to the primary business of making automobiles

- with batteries sourced from third parties like Panasonic, LG Chem and CATL
3. This is the valuation from those assumptions

- using a 10x P/E Multiple, referred to as “Buyer’s Pricing”
Read 7 tweets
14 Oct


- very unusual for their 2019 Income Taxes to be equal to their entire Pre-Tax Income

- this had the effect of wiping out their profits for 2019

- 2018 Pre-Tax Income was €4.174 billion compared to €1.473 billion in 2019

- 85% of Debt structure is short term matched against short-term receivables from Sales Financing
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!