We're 17 days until the election, and COVID cases are surging across the country.

We've had over 8 million cases and yesterday was the highest day since July.

Among the states setting new records? WI/OH/MI/PA - all states Trump desparately needs to have a chance at reelection.
When you think of all of the potential "October surprises" that could still impact the election, the rise in COVID cases (esp in the Midwest swing states) is one that Trump cannot control and the public already overwhelmingly disapproves of his handling of the pandemic.
Some Kansas City hospitals turning ambulances away as COVID cases spike in the Midwest.

These kinds of headlines could bring COVID front and center over the last two weeks along with Trump's handling of the pandemic, which would be doom for his chances.


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More from @NumbersMuncher

11 Oct
ABC/Washington Post - National Poll (change from last):

Biden 54 (n/c)
Trump 42 (-2)
Jorgenson 2

Biden increases his already large lead from two weeks ago, leading independents by 12.

They are tied among men, but Biden leads women by 23(!) points.

Biden leads seniors 49-48.
ABC/Washington Post poll: Biden leads Trump nationally by 12 among likely voters, 54-42.

Trump leads non-college grads by 5 while Biden leads those with a college degree by 34(!) points.

The two most striking gaps in 2020 are with gender and education.
Look at these education splits on the ABC/Washington Post poll among white voters:

White w/ no college degree: Trump +26
White college graduate: Biden +31

That's a 57 net point gap with white voters between not having a college degree and having one. Just an amazing divide.
Read 6 tweets
13 Sep
Fox News national poll (change from last):

Biden 51 (+2)
Trump 46 (+4)

A slight tightening since the convention.

-Trump leads men by 6, Biden leads women by 15.
-Trump leads whites by 11, Biden leads non-whites by 54.
-Biden leads by 6 in the battleground states.
I think this is a big reason that Trump's attacks on Biden aren't moving the needle - Biden's favorables are 16 net points higher.

Voters hated both Trump and Hillary in 2016, but Biden isn't Hillary no matter how much Trump tries to turn him into her. Image
After months of the Trump campaign saying that Biden is mentally unfit and needs performance enhancing drugs just to get through a speech, Americans still say Biden is more mentally sound to serve effectively as president than Trump. Image
Read 6 tweets
15 Aug
The comedy on Twitter has taken a large hit tonight with the loss of Bill Mitchell's account.

Tonight, in honor of Bill's amazing tweets, we remember some of the gems he provided for us. #RIPBillMitchellsAccount Image
I don't care what anyone says, this might be the greatest thing that Bill Mitchell ever tweeted.

#RIPBillMitchellsAccount #ItsJustMath Image
That time when Bill Mitchell was downplaying death to reopen the economy sooner during COVID.

#RIPBillMitchellsAccount #ItsJustMath Image
Read 5 tweets
28 Jul
The replies to tweets about COVID-19 are so depressing.

When did politics turn into a religion where people rely solely on emotions while ignoring the evidence, data, and medical experts to follow a leader who blatantly lies every day?

Facts do not care about your feelings.
I fully realize that many medical experts said not to buy masks in February, but they came around pretty quickly once they better understood how COVID spreads.

This idea that we can't change our approach to something is absolutely stupid. Do you still believe the Earth is flat?
As humans we are wired to seek community, but unfortunately that (plus social media) has turned politics into a fundamentalist religion where we shut off any sources that disagree with us, and further celebrate the distrust of experts to maintain plausibility to those beliefs.
Read 4 tweets
23 Jul
Fox News swing state polls:

MI: Biden 49, Trump 40
PA: Biden 50, Trump 39
MN: Biden 51, Trump 38

These aren't surprising given the national state of the race, but you can see why Trump is having no success with his attacks on Biden - people view him favorably, unlike Trump. ImageImageImage
Fox News Poll:

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Michigan by 9 points, 49-40.

Biden leads among independent voters by 19, women by 18, and 9 in the suburbs.

Trump again polling below his job approval which stands at 45-54. He's also way below Gov Whitmer who is at 64-33.
Fox News Poll:

Joe Biden leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania by 11 points, 50-39.

Biden leads among independent voters by 11, women by 17, and *26* in the suburbs.

Trump again polling below his job approval which stands at 43-56. He's also way below Gov Wolf who is at 63-33.
Read 4 tweets
19 Jul
Fox News - 2020 national poll (change from last):

Biden 49 (-1)
Trump 41 (+3)

Trump leads among men by 5, Biden leads among women by 19.

Biden leads among independents by 11 and leading by 26 among those under the age of 30. Image
Fox News poll: Trump job approval ticks up to 45-54 (was 44-55 in June)

Trump is +7 among men and -25 among women.

Trump is -24 among independents and 'only' at 86% approval among Republicans.

Those are going to be just about impossible number to win with if they hold.
This from the Fox News poll illustrates why Trump's attacks on Biden's mental state aren't working:

Not only do Americans think that Biden has the mental capacity and judgment to serve as president, but they actually think that Trump does *not* have the capacity and judgment. Image
Read 4 tweets

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