More from @unseen1_unseen

unseen1

@unseen1_unseen

19 Oct

Since EV is a big topic, I want to point out something. We don't have a national election. We have 50 state elections. There are reasons people vote a certain way in the states they live. It's not a one size fit all. Some states have more historical voter fraud than others

For instance, in 2016 in NC ,Trump and all GOP state office holders were winning....then at the very end Durham county (dem stronghold) came from nowhere and dumped 10,000+ votes. Flipping the race for most of the state GOP office holders to dems. Trump was winning

...at a higher % then the state GOP office holders because they were more Bush/establishment types so Trump was able to hold off that late "vote dump". Burr also was able to hold it off. The thing is if NC GOP votes early the dems know how many votes they need to dump.

Read 10 tweets

unseen1

@unseen1_unseen

19 Oct

I'm not saying this will happen. I'm not saying this is true. However, if the vote directly matched the +6 shift from dem to rep(+5D to+1R) Gallup is picking up in party affiliation (which it usually doesn't), but if it did then this would be the EC result of a 6pt move from 2016

Usually what happens is that the independents move in the same way to a lesser degree which means you have a dampened move not the full 6pt move. So when you factor that in you get about a 2-3pt total move in actual votes. (NM is special due to 3rd party vote in 2016) or this:

But....I don't really care about that... I'll be happy with this

Read 7 tweets

unseen1

@unseen1_unseen

19 Oct

Reminder. Trump won WI, MI, PA and almost won MN because democrats voted for him. It would be stupid to think every democrat ballot is a Biden vote. The same can be said for every republican vote. Further, in states like NC and KY dems

..have been voting for the GOP in national elections for decades while voting for democrats at the state and local levels. It wasn't until the tea party of 2010 that those same democrats started to vote for the gop at the state and local elections.

Polls tend to show that on average a gop candidate gets about 10% crossover from the Dems and the Dem candidate gets about 10% of the gop crossing over NATIONALLY. That doesn't take into account individual states that have a different history. Not to mention independents.

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unseen1

@unseen1_unseen

18 Oct

As of today 19.6% of the registered voters in NC have voted in Mail and early voting.
46.4% were dems
24.8% were GOP
28.5% were indies
0.5% were minor parties.

reminder NC as a history of dems voting blue at state level and red at national level.

Maybe some more history is in order....

In 2012 (mail in + EV final make up was)
47.5% dems
31.5% GOP
20.8% indies

in 2016(MI+EV)
41.7%
31.9%
26.1%

The Mitt and Trump won NC.

Right now with record mail in and EV turnout, the dems are lagging their 2012 pace, the indies are overperforming 2016, & the GOP are underperforming, BUT the GOP shows up more as the EV period goes on. So, at the end of the day I would imagine 2020 will fall within the normal

Read 8 tweets

unseen1

@unseen1_unseen

18 Oct

A theory of mine that I never heard batted by others. Trump won 2016 because democrats voted for him in PA, MI, WI, OH etc. The media wants you to forget that fact and act like all democrats hate Trump. IMO, those same Trump democrats voted in 2018. The media didn't find them

...because they were looking in the wrong place. They expected the Trump democrats to vote for republicans. Why would they? They aren't Trump republicans. They are Trump democrats. They would be much more likely to vote for democrats in 2018 than republicans at the congressional

...and state level. If that occurred then the turnout in 2018 for Dems in the mid term election wasn't all anti-Trump but also Trump democrats voting like they normally do, for democrats. It changes nothing about their support for Trump. They will vote for Trump in Nov.

Read 7 tweets