As of today 19.6% of the registered voters in NC have voted in Mail and early voting.
46.4% were dems
24.8% were GOP
28.5% were indies
0.5% were minor parties.

reminder NC as a history of dems voting blue at state level and red at national level.
Maybe some more history is in order....

In 2012 (mail in + EV final make up was)
47.5% dems
31.5% GOP
20.8% indies

in 2016(MI+EV)

The Mitt and Trump won NC.
Right now with record mail in and EV turnout, the dems are lagging their 2012 pace, the indies are overperforming 2016, & the GOP are underperforming, BUT the GOP shows up more as the EV period goes on. So, at the end of the day I would imagine 2020 will fall within the normal
Dems and indies % should drop some as the GOP share rises. It's how these things work. The Dems are at +310,000 votes. This was the same lead Hillary had in 2016 and she lost the state by 3.66%(173,000 votes) + 3rd party got 130,000(about 90,000 more than 2012
source for the 2012 and 2016 numbers(this article is before CNN went batshit crazy):…
in 2012 Obama had a 16 pt lead in early voting and lost

In 2008 Obama had a 21pt lead and won a close race...…
So, you can use those data points to tell you how worried you should or should not be. Right now at the start of the EV in NC dems are at the fringe of where they need to me. As a % dems at at the very fringe of where Obama was in 2008 but as of total votes they haven't gone
above where Hillary was yet. If the voting patterns hold within their historical norms the dems will lose % and total vote advantage going into Election day and then the GOP will swamp the polls on ED. The dems need to expand their lead in VBM+EV total votes it appears to win.

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More from @unseen1_unseen

20 Oct
I feel for those people that have to listen to political ads. But, I'm not one of them. Besides a few Trump ads I choose to watch, I've yet to see/hear more than a couple political ads this season. I don't have cable. I hit the "skip ads" button on youtube. My eyes don't notice
..the banner ads on the web. I pause Iheart radio at the top and bottom of the hour when listenig to the radio. Not to skip the ads but to skip the fake news. Twitter ads are a joke that are quickly forgotten. Who would pay to advertise on Twitter? Seriously?
One of the best and least reported aspects of the technology revolution is the ability to avoid all advertisements not just political ads with limited energy expanded. While I do remember some great ads from my youth, the few I do see today are stupid & lack any imagination.
Read 4 tweets
20 Oct
I think this hurts Biden more tbh.
Think about it. In the last 4 years Trump has never had an opportunity to speak for 2 minutes without the press interrupting him during a press conference. In the townhall last week NBC interrupted him constantly and Wallace did the same in the debate.
then on the other side you have Joe having to speak complete sentences for 2 minutes. I watched the dem debates. He can't do it. He'll start talking about leaving the record player on or something.
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
Since EV is a big topic, I want to point out something. We don't have a national election. We have 50 state elections. There are reasons people vote a certain way in the states they live. It's not a one size fit all. Some states have more historical voter fraud than others
For instance, in 2016 in NC ,Trump and all GOP state office holders were winning....then at the very end Durham county (dem stronghold) came from nowhere and dumped 10,000+ votes. Flipping the race for most of the state GOP office holders to dems. Trump was winning a higher % then the state GOP office holders because they were more Bush/establishment types so Trump was able to hold off that late "vote dump". Burr also was able to hold it off. The thing is if NC GOP votes early the dems know how many votes they need to dump.
Read 10 tweets
19 Oct
I'm not saying this will happen. I'm not saying this is true. However, if the vote directly matched the +6 shift from dem to rep(+5D to+1R) Gallup is picking up in party affiliation (which it usually doesn't), but if it did then this would be the EC result of a 6pt move from 2016 Image
Usually what happens is that the independents move in the same way to a lesser degree which means you have a dampened move not the full 6pt move. So when you factor that in you get about a 2-3pt total move in actual votes. (NM is special due to 3rd party vote in 2016) or this: Image
But....I don't really care about that... I'll be happy with this Image
Read 7 tweets
19 Oct
Reminder. Trump won WI, MI, PA and almost won MN because democrats voted for him. It would be stupid to think every democrat ballot is a Biden vote. The same can be said for every republican vote. Further, in states like NC and KY dems
..have been voting for the GOP in national elections for decades while voting for democrats at the state and local levels. It wasn't until the tea party of 2010 that those same democrats started to vote for the gop at the state and local elections.
Polls tend to show that on average a gop candidate gets about 10% crossover from the Dems and the Dem candidate gets about 10% of the gop crossing over NATIONALLY. That doesn't take into account individual states that have a different history. Not to mention independents.
Read 7 tweets
18 Oct
Let me count the ways
Read 5 tweets

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