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Mask Wearing Balding 大老板 Profile picture
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18 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
I had a non- American non Trump friend message me with this graphic a few days ago. They asked: why does everyone think this is a Biden landslide? Just on polling, this looks almost identical to 2016 leaving aside all those complications.

They are totally right. 1/n
It is easy to conceive of scenarios Biden and Trump both approach 400 EC votes and just as easy to see scenarios it comes down to one state like 2000. I think there are factors that are not being considered but for many reasons they all could mean something or nothing. 2/n
Add in the 2020 complications and real data outliers, advisable to significantly expand variance expectations. Think I'm wrong? Each party is behaving like I'm right. The Biden campaign doesn't enlist Obama, one of their two real campaign planks (other is he is not Trump) 3/n
To go campaign in Michigan if their internal polling is actually telling them the same thing is telling pollsters: Michigan is safe blue. Trump campaign doing some of the same things. I'm making no prediction about winner or how much but it clearly isn't the cake walk predicted

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Mask Wearing Balding 大老板 Profile picture
7 Oct
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One of the unique aspects of doing work on China is how ready everyone is to claim the "China exclusion". Let me give you two examples. People will argue it is nationalist, racist, and all kinds of other -isms to say Chinese companies should be blocked from listing in 1/n
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Mask Wearing Balding 大老板 Profile picture
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War and Peace is considered Tolstoy's master piece and by some the greatest novel of all time. It is truly a master piece. The philosophical point of the book is summed up in the second epilogue... not the first one. In it Tolstoy speaks to man's hubris as generals believe 1/n
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Mask Wearing Balding 大老板 Profile picture
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This is truly Kafka-esque and nothing more than hostage taking economic policy by China and it seems pretty pointless. Let's state at the outset that yes there is a case by almost any national regulator to pursue an anti trust case against Google. However, and this is big 1/n
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Mask Wearing Balding 大老板 Profile picture
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There is actually a very interesting dynamic being set up. Follow me a second. According to the released terms of the deal, it seems like multiple parties (if the terms are believed) drove hard bargains. TikTok raises the valuation and maintains significant direct ownership 1/n
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