I had a non- American non Trump friend message me with this graphic a few days ago. They asked: why does everyone think this is a Biden landslide? Just on polling, this looks almost identical to 2016 leaving aside all those complications.

They are totally right. 1/n Image
It is easy to conceive of scenarios Biden and Trump both approach 400 EC votes and just as easy to see scenarios it comes down to one state like 2000. I think there are factors that are not being considered but for many reasons they all could mean something or nothing. 2/n
Add in the 2020 complications and real data outliers, advisable to significantly expand variance expectations. Think I'm wrong? Each party is behaving like I'm right. The Biden campaign doesn't enlist Obama, one of their two real campaign planks (other is he is not Trump) 3/n
To go campaign in Michigan if their internal polling is actually telling them the same thing is telling pollsters: Michigan is safe blue. Trump campaign doing some of the same things. I'm making no prediction about winner or how much but it clearly isn't the cake walk predicted

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More from @BaldingsWorld

7 Oct
China academic Twitter: I have some China data I would like to put in the right hands. If you are interested, reply under here with some interests or expertise in the replies
When you say it out loud, it sounds completely absurd. However, that is the goal and that is what is slowly happening. Proof is being provided the reality of what China is doing is being revealed. Whether it is universities accepting laundered corrupt proceed funds, 2/n
China monitoring foreigners by the million, or all kinds of other things people don't believe until you confront them with the evidence the tide is turning on China globally though we have a long way to go. Lots of great people from the halls of power are turning this into 3/n
Read 4 tweets
6 Oct
One of the unique aspects of doing work on China is how ready everyone is to claim the "China exclusion". Let me give you two examples. People will argue it is nationalist, racist, and all kinds of other -isms to say Chinese companies should be blocked from listing in 1/n
In the United States. The plain fact of the matter is that Chinese companies with help from China are absolutely refusing to follow black letter law about securities offering requirements. People arguing that we should allow Chinese companies to list are literally arguing 2/n
We should ignore US securities law almost exclusively for Chinese companies. The "China exclusion". Let me give you another example. Universities and political science professors will talk at length about foreign interference and disinformation and rightfully so. 3/n
Read 6 tweets
3 Oct
Before:
Few hours to go:
About to eat. One rack actually broke in two the meat is so fall apart tender
Read 4 tweets
3 Oct
War and Peace is considered Tolstoy's master piece and by some the greatest novel of all time. It is truly a master piece. The philosophical point of the book is summed up in the second epilogue... not the first one. In it Tolstoy speaks to man's hubris as generals believe 1/n
They sit astride history moving the fortune of war with their decisions. Tolstoy argued in reality, history was much less predictable with events being decided by thousands of small decisions outside the control of rulers. It is easy to believe in our data driven age this 2/n
Changed despite lacking strong supporting evidence. The US economy largely preforms the same regardless of political party. ACA has not fundamentally changed American health outcomes. We can't explain why observable data like mobility is so tightly correlated but corona 3/n
Read 5 tweets
30 Sep
This is truly Kafka-esque and nothing more than hostage taking economic policy by China and it seems pretty pointless. Let's state at the outset that yes there is a case by almost any national regulator to pursue an anti trust case against Google. However, and this is big 1/n
Because Google is blocked in China, it's not really clear what measures they could impose upon Google or pursue remedies. In other words, China files the case, wins of course, what happens next? They block Google even more? Interestingly, the case was filed by Huawei over 2/n
Android which is really reeks of desperation. Huawei has no replacement which they have been promising the world for years so they bring a case against Google. So Huawei wins it's case against Google. What's it going to do? Stop using Android? Final point, Huawei PR is built 3/n
Read 5 tweets
20 Sep
There is actually a very interesting dynamic being set up. Follow me a second. According to the released terms of the deal, it seems like multiple parties (if the terms are believed) drove hard bargains. TikTok raises the valuation and maintains significant direct ownership 1/n
And does US IPO. That's great for them. Given the circumstances that's a good deal. US gets total access to source code, algorithms, data localization & security etc. That's what they wanted. Oracle and Walmart get into rapidly growing sector that seems to complement their 2/n
Underlying businesses of cloud, payments, and retail well. The VCs and princelings get a great short term exit strategy. All parties are getting a significant piece of what they wanted out of this deal. You can just tell I'm leading up to something can't you. 3/n
Read 5 tweets

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