It appears that the tools of panic-exaggeration developed over 20 years in the climate movement have been fully deployed to justify limitless government authority during COVID. Note the map below -- the scale has been chosen to push nearly everything into the most extreme red
To describe us now as almost completely in the worst possibly condition when things are clearly much better in terms of deaths and hospital utilization than 60-90 days ago begs the question of why such an uninformative scale was chosen where everything is always at the max
The reason cannot be scientific -- scientists would never choose a scale where 90+% of the data consistently exceeds the upper bounds. It has to be a political choice, to try to scare people and develop a constituency for authoritarianism.
A year ago I never would have believed it if you had told me that the lead argument for Trump would be that he was... wait for it ... insufficiently authoritarian. Apparently, he should have shut down more businesses & locked more people into home-based solitary confinement.
Ironically, Trump's biggest early mistakes were, imo, that he was insufficiently libertarian. He allowed the CDC to monopolize test development and the FDA to shut down promising tests, treatments, and PPE manufacture when he should have been slashing regulations
To me this is just another example of ham-handedness of Trump's opposition. There is just so much he can be rightly be criticized for and the opposition chooses to focus on a failed collusion narrative and not enough lockdowns.
BTW, I will give @erictopol extra political credit for only mentioning in his thread potential super-spreader events championed by the Right & totally ignoring super-spreader events of the Left, proving again that COVID only infects those with whom one disagrees politically
I find it interesting in his source data that of all the metrics on the main page (link in his tweet), deaths does not appear anywhere. I am not sure why, but I will confess the only reason I can think of is again to tell the direst possible story.
US deaths flattened out months ago, and remain concentrated in the very old. Young people who make up the huge growth in cases, many of whom are in age groups that have no more death risk from COVID than from flu.
We under-reacted to the COVID threat to older folks and with certain pre-existing conditions like diabetes, and have grossly over-reacted for everyone else. I just don't know why the media not only can't make this distinction but won't allow anyone else to do so

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More from @Coyoteblog

18 Oct
In response to Twitter's policy of banning heterodox opinions about the efficacy and relative costs of COVD-19 responses, I have one word to say:

Homeopathy
Homeopathy has got to be one of the dumbest, most ascientific medical theories that exists in the modern world (except perhaps from some shamanistic beliefs of an untouched aboriginal tribe in the Amazon).
Created in 1796, it is just absurd to imagine that diluting an active ingredient to ratios of approximately one molecule in a volume of water the size of an ocean has anpotential healing qualities beyond the placebo effect.
Read 12 tweets
16 Oct
What I tell people every election about my choices:

R: OK on fiscal & business, warmongers, suck on civil rights
D: OK on civil rights, bringing awful CA biz environment to rest of US
L: Brave, reasonable soul who has no chance of getting elected in 2-party system
What my choices actually are:

R: fiscal mess, mixed bag on regulation, suck on some civil rights, sometimes warmongers
D: fiscal bigger mess, awful on regulation, suck on other civil rights, sometimes warmongers
L: Weird dude last seen shouting at pigeons in a skate park
Read 11 tweets
14 Oct
When it comes to creating fear, one of the media's preferred techniques is to bring attention to tail-of-the-distribution events, even those down to the 6-sigma level, and portray them as somehow characterizing the mean.
I have years of immunity built up to this technique from following the climate debate. I have seen all-too-many occasions when the media extrapolates from a single data point, like a hurricane, into implied trends in mean behavior.
This works on a couple of levels--first, most media consumers cannot differentiate between the frequency of media coverage of a certain event & the underlying frequency of the event itself. Increased coverage of, say, hurricanes creates a perception that hurricanes are increasing
Read 9 tweets
7 Oct
The State of California has created a state-run Roth IRA called CalSavers that all employers must offer to their employees in the state if they do not otherwise have a 401k or similar plan.
It is an opt-out program, meaning that the employee will automatically have 5-8% of their pay deducted and sent to the state for safe-keeping unless they explicitly call or write to the state to opt out.
I'm not going to comment on whether it's a good idea for workers to entrust their savings to an entity that can't stop itself from grabbing everyone's wealth, in part because once I'm an employer in the program it's illegal for me to opine on whether employees should participate
Read 14 tweets
29 Sep
I know zero about the details of Trump's taxes. But it is perfectly possible to use the tax code exactly as Congress intended & pay little or no tax for years on strong cash income. One common reason is reinvesting profits with accelerated depreciation
coyoteblog.com/coyote_blog/20…
"This is what everyone is calling a "loophole" but I think that is a misnomer. "Loophole" implies people are taking advantage of some drafting error or unanticipated use of an IRS rule. That happens all the time, but our example is not an unanticipated use. "
"In our example we are using IRS rules exactly as Congress intended -- the company is being rewarded by Congress for the investment it made in new equipment with a multi-year tax deferral."
Read 4 tweets
24 Sep
Your late night climate test: Which is the following numbers is closest to the actual current concentration of CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere. (many of my readers will get it right, but forward it to friends and most will get it wrong)
Please do not mock those who are very wrong. Years ago Steve Martin had a routine where he suggested how funny it would be to teach your kids to speak wrong. They would show up the first day at school and say "Mumbo dogface in the banana patch?"
Most Americans, including a lot of blue check marks like our new friend @warrenleightTV are like little children purposely taught wrong or islanders struggling for meaning using a cargo cult.
Read 6 tweets

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