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Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

13 Oct

like many readers, I'm reading and dismayed by the FBI spreadsheet purportedly summarizing their analysis of Steele dossier. scribd.com/document/47978…

if incompetence, laziness and stupidity were crimes, then Comey's "right people" would all be in jail long ago.

2/ but, before further editorializing, let's consider FBI General Counsel James Baker's description of verification techniques, as told to Telegraph telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/02/1… (Episode 2, 15:42 ff). Always best to judge work product by their own standards and protocols.

3/ Baker observed that reliance on open source for verification was "tricky because source could have gotten information from open source as well, so you have to be wary". It doesn't take John LeCarre or James Jesus Angleton to figure that out. Yet spreadsheet abounds in examples

Read 15 tweets

Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

7 Oct

always lots of debate about US COVID numbers. Here's how I like to look at data: three panels: daily NewCases, hospitalizedCurrently and daily NewDeaths. Decline in NewCases and hospitalized in summer has seemingly stalled. Reason interesting,

2/ first wave was in NY, NJ area which subsided after ~8 weeks; then 2nd wave in southern states (FL,AZ, TX shown here). It had very similar case pattern but much lower hospitalizations and deaths. So why hasn't overall data also diminished as 2nd wave dissipates?

3/ there's a third pulse in more "remote" states in northern plains and midwest: ND, SD, MT, UT; also WI. Since populations small, 3rd pulse led to much lesser national increase. Even lower hospitalizations and deaths thus far then 2nd pulse, much lower than 1st pulse.

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Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

6 Oct

Here's a scatter plot showing (my interpretation) of stated Dancheno "proximate" sources (numbered in interview) vs use in Steele dossier by date. There is pattern and structure that has gone almost entirely unnoticed.

2/ on the evening of June 15, Ivan Vorontsov (S2) and Sergei Abyshev (S1) went drinking with Igor Danchenko (PSS) in Moscow. Vorontsov went to huge St Petersburg economic conference the next day (which, ironically, Millian attended). Igor stayed in Moscow.

3/ S1 and S2 were both described by PSS as sources for Report 80, the first ("pee tape") report, which I believe to have been primarily fabricated into very embellished and fraudulent document in Steele's office based on context from Danchenko. Danchenko also told FBI that

Read 25 tweets

Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

2 Oct

@shipwreckedcrew

@shipwreckedcrew problem with your argument is there was real distinction betw sanctions and expulsions, which was important and relevant to Flynn. In his only contemporary interview (Feb 15, 2017), he readily admitted that he had discussed expulsions, but vehemently denied discussing sanctions.

@shipwreckedcrew

@shipwreckedcrew 2/ this interview was in response to blockbuster WaPo article which, based on conversations with /893/ anonymous officials in a position to know, said that Flynn had specifically discussed sanctions.

@shipwreckedcrew

@shipwreckedcrew 3/ Flynn was not guilty of lying about "US Sanctions" as defined in Statement of Offense. At the time, for various reasons, Flynn seems to have assumed that, despite his memory otherwise, the government must have had transcripts showing that he had discussed US Sanctions

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Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

29 Sep

recent Barr letter on Danchenko contained unredaction of Horowitz Footnote 334, which commented on claim that "Steele himself was not the originating source of any of the factual information in his reporting". What does this actually mean? Is it true?

2/ as someone who's studied this very closely, it seems virtually certain to me that many details in the Steele dossier, including nearly all of the details of interest, did NOT originate with the PSS, but were embellishments or fabrications introduced in Steele's writeup.

3/ Was Horowitz archly trolling readers by his use of the term "factual information" (as opposed to more generic term of (say) details in the Steele dossier. I.e. anything that was true did not originate with Steele. But I really don't think that Horowitz was being that cute.

Read 10 tweets

Stephen McIntyre

@ClimateAudit

29 Sep

in 2008, Danchenko, according to his now deleted CV archive.is/rK4M6, while at Georgetown and Brookings, also did an assignment for Jane's, now a subsidiary of IHS Markit, which annually publishes Jane's Fighting Ships en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jane%27s_…

2/ in the recent Barr letter, the FBI reported that, in their prior investigation, one of Danchenko's associates (presumably at Brookings) said that he "persistently asked about" their knowledge of a particular military vessel.

3/ in the spirit of an aluminum tube not necessarily being evidence of WMD - a possibility insufficiently scrutinized by Colin Powell, is it possible that Danchenko's inquiry about military vessel was to make money from Jane's, as opposed to spying for Russia?

Read 5 tweets

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