#minimodel (πŸ‘‡πŸ») guesstimate of Covid-19 infection fatality rate is less than 0.3%, which is in the same ballpark as IFR of flu (0.1%, also an estimate).

In this THREAD, I will explain how this fact has been misconstrued/misused to mean Covid-19 pandemic is a nothingburger.
I'm thinking here of crowd jumping up+down "see! the IFR is same as flu!!!".

Covid-19 IFR is indeed around that of flu. I don't say "low", since everything relative. IFRs are in the same ballpark.

But C-19 will kill far more people in the same time period than flu.

continues
We already see Covid-19 has killed 225,000 in USA, far more than flu. Comparing IFRs is not the right move here (and has never been β€” see the breakdown of the #minimodel).

Despite similar IFRs, C-19 will kill far more people than flu, because it will infect far more.

continues
Reason Covid-19 will infect more is that in Jan. 2020, everyone was immuno-naΓ―ve to SARS-CoV-2. Same cannot be said β€” at all β€” for flu.

We see that mortality in flu pandemics is shaped by prior influenza exposure. Clearest in the flu pandemcs of 1918, '68, and '09.

continues
The problem with IFR comparison with flu isn't that it's wrong β€” it's that it's irrelevant.

I don't disagree with those who say Covid-19 IFR is about same as flu! They're right!

But they make a huge leap that all this (masking, "lock-downs", etc.) is over-reaction.

continues
Given that the IFRs are about same, "final size" in epi jargon β€” in English, total number of infected β€” will drive the mortality.

We *already* see that the (non-)final size of Covid-19 is larger than flu in the same time period.

Forget about IFR comparisons w/flu!

continues.
The immuno-naΓ―ve nature of humans with respect to this virus, will drive Covid-19 total deaths up well beyond flu.

As such, we need to treat the virus/the pandemic with respect. Or it will humble us.

Forget the flu comparisons.

continues.
Lastly, don't believe the idea that "mixing heterogeneity" makes it different this time.

This is a respiratory viral pathogen. The epidemic doesn't unfold differently because 21st C.

"This time it's different". Nope.

continues
The only thing different is that this is the most significant pandemic to have occurred with math modelers salivating to get into Science/Nature.

Pathogen transmission hasn't changed.

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @AndrewNoymer

19 Oct
Friends, as you know I've advocated #masks for long time. Certainly longer thn @CDCgov & people at my... place of employment.

Qualitatively, I believe they work. How much they protect is hard to quantify, however.

Today, saw something thought provoking in this vein.

continues:
Anti-masker in inbox wondered what we say in a year, when (in his words/imagination of future), consensus changes against masks.

If can't quantify good masks do, how we know benefit isn't marginal?

Valid question, but #PrecautionaryPrinciple says not to play no-mask roulette.
I was here when they said it was nothing.

~ when... it was no worse than flu.

~ when... it would "only" kill 100,000.

The latest is that "masks won't stop it". It *is* hard to quantify #mask effect β€” but, I'm sorry but I can't endorse that.

I'm just not that kind of asshole.
Read 4 tweets
25 Sep
Let's talk about emerging C-19 narrative of "shield sensitive groups". Thread will be USA-centric; I live in US of A, so.

This is C-19 strategy emphasizing nursing homes/elderly, & a euphemism for everyone else to "[keep calm and] carry on".

It won't work. Especially in USA.
Why won't it work?

Where I live, Calif, 26% of C-19 mortality has been in people younger than 65, and 7% has been in people 18–49.

C-19 mortality in CA has been disproportionately felt by the Latinx population and elsewhere in the USA, Blacks have been in a similar position.
continued

The C-19 pandemic is overlaid on the United States' dilapidated public health infrastructure and its major health inequalities, particularly by race.

We can't just take the Swedish experience (which, on Twitter, is more fantasy than reality anyways), and copy+paste.
Read 4 tweets
21 Sep
So... going off @Worldometers data, the COVID-19 deaths per million population (as of today) is 591 in Italy, and 620 in Florida.

In March, I was worried about the impending mortality impact of COVID-19 in the US of A.

And no place worried me more than Florida...

1/
2/

No place worried me more than Florida because of its famously old population structure. (For my friends overseas who don't pay attention to US demographics, many people from all over the USA move to Florida in their retirement, because of its mild winters.)
3/

In March, spoke to @mrMattSimon at length abt how pandemic would play out, USA; mortality was one of my chief concerns.

At some point in the interview, I said something to the effect that Florida would be the "uber-Italy"; again, thinking about its population age structure.
Read 5 tweets
23 Aug
Convalescent serum: the new hydroxychloroquine.
Convalescent serum has a long and successful history in fighting disease.

But that doesn't mean that it will necessarily succeed for *any* disease.

It needs to be studied better before make any all-in bets.
The reasons convalescent serum may work are many, but it boils down to this: it has worked for other diseases, ex. measles [before the vaccine].

But there are also reasons why it might NOT work. Many, in fact.

So we need to *study* it.
Read 7 tweets
18 Aug
Orange County, Calif.

occovid19.ochealthinfo.com/coronavirus-in…

My first update after some days off.

SITREP:

The ICU numbers are looking MUCH better than July. Good news!

I'm old enough to remember 2-digit ICU numbers, but this is progress.

Projected days until 2,000th COVID-19 death: 70. Image
I have switched from doing a forecast of days until the 1,000th death, to days to the 2,000th death.

Basically, this is because the 1,000th death is too close, already. It is destined to happen. Early September sometime.

The 2,000th death on the other hand is...

continues
cont'd

The 2,000th death is not destiny.

As such the projection is highly uncertain, and will change in the coming weeks.

70 days is early November, but I expect 2,000th to be after that, as the latest increase of deaths is the echo of the July wave... continues...
Read 4 tweets
5 Aug
Latest:
*VERY* crude math:

USA: 4,918,420 cases; 160,290 deaths

Figure 10Γ— under-reporting factor, all-infections:cases

Unadjusted (wrong!) infection-fatality rate abt 0.33%

~70% of pop will get it eventually; 328m pop'n

➑️ 740,000 deaths

Not a forecast. Just a gut-check.
The #MiniModel declines again, 740,000 deaths.

Today the USA surpassed 160k deaths, and is nearing its 5 millionth confirmed case.

More info on the minimodel, in this thread:
#MiniModel holding steady, 740,000 deaths.

As I have noted on many occasions, this projection does not have a time envelope. It's not for calendar year 2020. It's for the pandemic's full extent.

Want more info? This thread on decomposing the minimodel:
Read 4 tweets

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