#minimodel (ππ») guesstimate of Covid-19 infection fatality rate is less than 0.3%, which is in the same ballpark as IFR of flu (0.1%, also an estimate).
In this THREAD, I will explain how this fact has been misconstrued/misused to mean Covid-19 pandemic is a nothingburger.
In this THREAD, I will explain how this fact has been misconstrued/misused to mean Covid-19 pandemic is a nothingburger.
https://twitter.com/AndrewNoymer/status/1317933866384961536
I'm thinking here of crowd jumping up+down "see! the IFR is same as flu!!!".
Covid-19 IFR is indeed around that of flu. I don't say "low", since everything relative. IFRs are in the same ballpark.
But C-19 will kill far more people in the same time period than flu.
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Covid-19 IFR is indeed around that of flu. I don't say "low", since everything relative. IFRs are in the same ballpark.
But C-19 will kill far more people in the same time period than flu.
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We already see Covid-19 has killed 225,000 in USA, far more than flu. Comparing IFRs is not the right move here (and has never been β see the breakdown of the #minimodel).
Despite similar IFRs, C-19 will kill far more people than flu, because it will infect far more.
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Despite similar IFRs, C-19 will kill far more people than flu, because it will infect far more.
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Reason Covid-19 will infect more is that in Jan. 2020, everyone was immuno-naΓ―ve to SARS-CoV-2. Same cannot be said β at all β for flu.
We see that mortality in flu pandemics is shaped by prior influenza exposure. Clearest in the flu pandemcs of 1918, '68, and '09.
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We see that mortality in flu pandemics is shaped by prior influenza exposure. Clearest in the flu pandemcs of 1918, '68, and '09.
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The problem with IFR comparison with flu isn't that it's wrong β it's that it's irrelevant.
I don't disagree with those who say Covid-19 IFR is about same as flu! They're right!
But they make a huge leap that all this (masking, "lock-downs", etc.) is over-reaction.
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I don't disagree with those who say Covid-19 IFR is about same as flu! They're right!
But they make a huge leap that all this (masking, "lock-downs", etc.) is over-reaction.
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Given that the IFRs are about same, "final size" in epi jargon β in English, total number of infected β will drive the mortality.
We *already* see that the (non-)final size of Covid-19 is larger than flu in the same time period.
Forget about IFR comparisons w/flu!
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We *already* see that the (non-)final size of Covid-19 is larger than flu in the same time period.
Forget about IFR comparisons w/flu!
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The immuno-naΓ―ve nature of humans with respect to this virus, will drive Covid-19 total deaths up well beyond flu.
As such, we need to treat the virus/the pandemic with respect. Or it will humble us.
Forget the flu comparisons.
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As such, we need to treat the virus/the pandemic with respect. Or it will humble us.
Forget the flu comparisons.
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Lastly, don't believe the idea that "mixing heterogeneity" makes it different this time.
This is a respiratory viral pathogen. The epidemic doesn't unfold differently because 21st C.
"This time it's different". Nope.
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This is a respiratory viral pathogen. The epidemic doesn't unfold differently because 21st C.
"This time it's different". Nope.
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The only thing different is that this is the most significant pandemic to have occurred with math modelers salivating to get into Science/Nature.
Pathogen transmission hasn't changed.
Pathogen transmission hasn't changed.
β’ β’ β’
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