Thread by @OliverStuenkel

Bolivia's socialist candidate Luis Arce looks set to win the country's presidential election without the need for a run-off, an unofficial counts suggest, which would put Evo Morales's MAS party back into power. A few thoughts: 🧵👇

If the results are confirmed (which should happen today or tomorrow), Arce is likely to be a very different president from Morales: Arce is an uncharismatic & ultrapragmatic technocrat, holds a Masters Degree in Economics from Warwick University and speaks English and Portuguese.

Arce grew up in a middle-class family in La Paz; both his parents were teachers. He's the polar opposite of charismatic Morales, who grew up in Isallavi, a village in Bolivia's poor Oruro Department, led the Cocalero Union & gave in to strongman compulsions late in his presidency

Arce ran a smart campaign and criticized Evo Morales for having ignored the result of a referendum that barred him from running last year. He also benefited from the breathtaking incompetente and authoritarian antics of the current government, which was also criticized by Mesa.

But most importantly, Arce's strong result shows that the opposition has failed to offer a convincing narrative, as I wrote after a trip to Bolivia a few years ago, when I spoke to numerous people who opposed Morales.
americasquarterly.org/article/bolivi…

Carlos Mesa was not a bad candidate, either, but the fact that all the opposition came up with was a man who had been president 15 years ago (and whose presidency was not exactly tranquil) shows that the opposition must invest in training a new generation of future leaders.

Finally, many will interpret the result as a triumph of left-wing forces over right-wing conservatives. But as @sylviacolombo rightly pointed out, it's not that simple. Mesa is not right-wing and supports gay marriage, while Arce designed an orthodox economic policy under Morales