Thread by @ASlavitt

BREAKING: Data for the month suggests for the first time COVID-19 has moved from a region by region crisis to a national one.

It needs a national solution.

More to follow shortly.

Here is a graph that says a lot. One thing you see is that cases are growing since April. Now that alone doesn’t tell us everything since testing is growing but it does tell us some things.

It’s from @NephronResearch

One thing to note is the number of states where cases are growing by 1000 cases/day.

April: 6
May/June: 6
July: 14 (19 peak)
August: 12
September: 12
October 15th: 25

We are now at a point where we have to name the states where there is NOT broad spread. Only places with very active management in the Northeast and California aren’t out of control.

What about testing? If we pretend that’s the real issue, that’s wishful thinking.

NY and CA are big tests that test a lot
We still don’t have enough tests for asymptomatic testing
Test positives are rising

https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1317865265766535168?s=21

https://twitter.com/scottgottliebmd/status/1317865265766535168

31 states now have rising test positivity rates
31 states have a test positivity rate higher than 5%
14 states have a test positivity rate higher than 10%

So in some cases this may be higher testing among college students. But there are clearly other things happening.

Sturgis has at least 800 known cases, but since the Superspreader event, they haven’t done contact tracing.

North Dakota and South Dakota have become the worst hot spots since the pandemic began.

Cases are usually the leading indicator of hospitalizations. There is still time to get ahead of this, but some indications are heading the wrong direction.

37 states have hospitalization on the rise.
17 states are above 70% ICU capacity.