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Avik Roy Profile picture
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19 Oct, 5 tweets, 3 min read
Please wear masks, friends, especially when you're around others indoors. Masks *do* work. Masks, distancing, and hand-washing are the most important things we can do to limit #COVID19 transmission.
This @Nature article is a useful primer/response to the anti-mask arguments out there: nature.com/articles/d4158…
Here's a useful review from @WSJ on research into the efficacy of different types of face coverings. wsj.com/articles/face-…
I'm not hiding in a basement. I'm typing this from my actual office in an office building. My kids go to school. I want everyone else's kids to go to school too. And I wear a mask when I'm around others indoors. c-span.org/video/?475386-…
As @aginnt says here, masks aren't a vaccine. They don't make you invulnerable to #COVID19. But wearing them is a minor inconvenience, relative to the public health benefit, when used appropriately.

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More from @Avik

Avik Roy Profile picture
24 Sep
So ⁦@realDonaldTrump⁩ is announcing his “America First Healthcare Plan” today in a spacious airplane hangar. Chairs spaced out to six feet. A lot of doctors in white coats in the room. I’ll tweet out some comments as POTUS makes his remarks. Image
Senior officials who are also appearing: @SecAzar, @SeemaCMS, @MarkMeadows.
One thing to keep an eye out for: how much of today’s discussion is about Trump’s health care policies to date (price transparency, reducing drug prices) vs. what he proposes to do in a second term.
Read 17 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
13 Sep
So @YouTube just took down a June 23 interview that Scott Atlas (@SWAtlasHoover) did with his employer, Stanford's @HooverInst, because it "contradicts the World Health Organization or local health authorities' medical information about COVID-19." hoover.org/research/docto…
Antitrust jurisprudence and regulation in the U.S. needs to be modernized on many fronts, especially to tackle the problem of multinational technology companies that attempt to impose a monopoly on information.
Fortunately, in this case, @HooverInst has published the transcript of the interview, so you can see for yourself what Scott Atlas had to say, and why @YouTube felt the need to censor it. hoover.org/research/docto…
Read 6 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
1 Sep
New @FREOPP: In response to the theory that there are only 6,000 #COVID19 deaths in the U.S., we published an updated version of our international comparison of pandemic performance (part of our World Index of Healthcare Innovation project). The scorecard: freopp.org/measuring-covi…
The best way to compare mortality across countries is to look at excess deaths: mortality from all causes this year vs. the non-pandemic average. Not every country reports these stats, but the U.S. does: 214,812 excess deaths as of Aug 28, or 657 per million residents. Image
Of the countries that report excess deaths, quite a few are in the U.S.'s ballpark, including France, Sweden, Portugal, Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain, UK. The last 4 are somewhat higher than the U.S., the first 4 somewhat lower. Norway and Israel stand out as top performers.
Read 7 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
24 Aug
THREAD: Big news today. For the first time, we have a confirmed report of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection by a patient in Hong Kong—his/her #COVID19 diagnoses were 4.5 months apart. This blows a big hole in the "let's stay locked down until there's a vaccine" position. Let me explain why.
We've been wondering how long immunity lasts after you've had #COVID19. Based on experience with common colds and other milder coronaviruses, we've expected somewhere around 6 months. This Hong Kong patient falls within that range. So why is it that immunity is so short?
A big reason for limited immunity is that coronaviruses mutate all the time, such that immunity to one version of SARS-CoV-2 doesn't necessarily confer immunity to another strain. We discussed this back in April in @FREOPP's paper on reopening the economy. freopp.org/a-new-strategy…
Read 25 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
7 Aug
New: my @WSJ Review cover story on the compelling case for reopening schools, especially for younger children. Children themselves are at extremely low risk of serious illness or death. So the question I answer is: can children pass #COVID19 to adults? wsj.com/articles/why-i…
To repeat: we *know* that the risk of children dying of #COVID19 is comparable to, or much lower than, dying of influenza/pneumonia. We detail those figures @FREOPP: freopp.org/estimating-the… Image
There are 45 million U.S. children in pre-K, kindergarten, elementary, or middle school. Only 28 children aged 1-15 have died of #COVID19. Not 28 million—28. freopp.org/reopening-amer… Image
Read 40 tweets
Avik Roy Profile picture
31 Jul
New @FREOPP: Our updated charts comparing your risk of death from #COVID19 vs. influenza, and other top causes of death, by age bracket. We assumed a total of 200,000 coronavirus deaths for this analysis: freopp.org/estimating-the…
School-aged children continue to be at significantly higher risk (4-8x) of dying from influenza or pneumonia than from #COVID19. freopp.org/estimating-the… Image
While #COVID19 will be the 3rd leading cause of death in the U.S. this year overall, it varies widely by age group. For school-aged children, the risk of death from many other causes, like accidents, cancer, and suicide, are much greater. freopp.org/estimating-the… Image
Read 6 tweets

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